載舟覆舟！Crypto、PayPal走勢大相逕庭 比特幣是罪魁禍首

載舟覆舟！Crypto、PayPal走勢大相逕庭 比特幣是罪魁禍首

PayPal (PYPL-US) 和 Square (SQ-US) 都靠比特幣吸引顧客使用其 app 並維持其參與度，但兩家股價走勢卻大相逕庭，自從比特幣一個月前開始下跌以來，Square 股價就表現不佳。

如果加密貨幣持續熊市，兩家股價可能都會苦不堪言，但 Square 可能會面臨更多壓力，部分原因是該公司在散戶投資者中與比特幣的聯繫更為緊密。

兩種支付 app 都可輕鬆買賣和儲值加密貨幣，PayPal 在其 app 上提供數種加密貨幣，而 Square 只供應比特幣。這兩家作法像經紀人，賺取的是每筆交易的手續費和利潤。

來自加密貨幣的營收淨額並非其整體業務的大部分。MoffettNathanson 分析師 Lisa Ellis 指出，PayPal 今年營收約只因加密貨幣交易增加 2%，在營收總額 260 億美元中僅占 3 億至 6 億美元。

Square 第一季營收總額 51 億美元，其中比特幣營收 35 億美元。Square 的會計方式是：扣除購買比特幣的成本，在當季 9.64 億美元毛利總額中，只計入這些交易 7500 萬美元的毛利。

雖然加密貨幣的獲利非常微薄，但這兩家支付公司都將加密貨幣交易視為攏絡顧客並提高 app 參與度的一種手段。

Ellis 指出，「他們的加密貨幣用戶一天會多次打開 app 確認價格，這就讓公司有機會出售其他服務。」

Square 與加密貨幣聯繫更緊密，但部分原因是其創辦人兼執行長 Jack Dorsey 是加密貨幣狂粉，近日也曾在推特上表示，「比特幣使一切變得更好。」Square 過去幾季資產負債表上認列投資比特幣 2.2 億美元，現已對該投資進行減值。

加密貨幣低迷顯然對 Square 的影響更大。在過去的一個月中，Square 股價下跌約 17%，而 PayPal 股價僅下跌 4%。

但加密貨幣並非 Square 唯一苦痛來源，投資者逃離高倍數成長股的浪潮也重創 Square，反映投資者在價格上反映預期上升的通膨，這點會降低未來收益的現值。

根據未來 12 個月的估算，Square 現行股價是企業價值倍數 (EV/Ebitda) 的 113 倍，PayPal 則為 43 倍，對比其他同業如 Visa (V-US) 和 Mastercard (MA-US) 僅 27 倍至 30 倍。

Ellis 談到 PayPal 和 Square 時說，「他們是我兩家長期最愛的支付公司，但實際考慮上來說，機構投資者如果擔憂長期通膨，就會對這些高倍數股覺得反感。」

隨著比特幣價格的飆升，投資者也迷戀上這些股票，但水能載舟也會覆舟，如今比特幣和其他加密貨幣恐怕也是令他們憂心忡忡的原因之一。

週一美股普遍上漲，PayPal 週一上漲 2.58%，收 257.17 美元；Square 上漲 5.47%，收 210.95 美元。

Despite crypto crackdown in China, traders still betting

Chinese investors are paying little heed to the government’s biggest crackdown on cryptocurrency trading since 2017, underscoring the challenge for Beijing as it tries to rein in a speculative boom in digital assets.

Knee-jerk selling has given way to a steady recovery on over-the-counter platforms that Chinese crypto traders have used since domestic exchanges were banned in 2017. One key gauge of local sentiment — the exchange rate between China’s yuan and the stablecoin Tether — fell as much as 4.4% after the government’s warning earlier this month but has since recouped more than half the loss, according to crypto data platform Feixiaohao, a Chinese equivalent of CoinMarketCap.

China escalated its crackdown after a frenzied surge in Bitcoin and other tokens over the past six months heightened longstanding Communist Party concerns about the potential for fraud, money laundering and trading losses by individual investors. Yet the hard-to-trace nature of transactions on local OTC platforms and peer-to-peer networks means it will be extremely difficult for authorities to enforce a wholesale ban.

That may come as a relief to global crypto enthusiasts after worries about a plunge in Chinese buying power contributed to the nearly $1 trillion selloff in digital assets from record highs in mid-May.

As to the losses and the crackdown, “I don’t care,” said Charles, a 35-year-old real estate consultant in Shanghai who asked to be identified only by his English first name. He’s been buying cryptocurrencies since 2017 and claims to have lost $11 million over three days in the recent pullback. “To me it’s giving back the profits I made in the past few months,” he said. “I’m looking at the 10- to 20-year horizon.”

Before China outlawed crypto exchanges in 2017, local investors owned an estimated 7% of the world’s Bitcoin and accounted for about 80% of trading, according to state media. The exchange ban has made it impossible to gauge those figures today, but Chinese investors are still widely believed to have a major presence in the crypto world via domestic OTC platforms and offshore venues that they access using virtual private networks.

Domestic trades involving yuan and digital coins are difficult for China’s government to track because they typically take place in two separate steps.

The first happens on OTC platforms operated by firms including Huobi and OKEx, which allow traders to post bids and offers. Once both sides agree on a price, the buyer will use a separate payments platform — operated by their bank or a fintech company like Ant Group Co. — to send yuan to the seller. The digital coins, usually held in escrow by the OTC platform until the yuan payment clears, are then transferred to the buyer. Chinese regulators often have no way to connect one step of the transaction to the other.

Because the yuan leg of the trades take place entirely within China’s domestic financial system, the risk of large-scale capital outflows is low. But that hasn’t stopped the government from warning financial firms and individual investors to stay away from crypto.

Regulators this month reminded Chinese banks and payments firms of the requirement to identify and block suspicious transactions, and pointed out that facilitating cryptocurrency trades often violates banking rules. China’s State Council called for a clamp down on Bitcoin trading and mining, vowing to “resolutely” prevent financial risks.

Policy makers may be keen to avoid any major market disruptions around the politically sensitive 100th anniversary of the ruling Communist Party on July 1.

After the government’s statement, Huobi said it stopped its miner hosting services in mainland China and is scaling back futures contracts and leveraged investment products in some markets. It’s unclear whether the firm plans to shut its OTC platform.

Chinese regulators have so far stopped short of labeling individual trading illegal, but the crackdown will involve the public security department as some of the activities were suspected to have facilitated money laundering and terror financing, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Police in Beijing have distributed printed warnings about potential risks associated with cryptocurrencies. Virtual currencies are among popular means for latest scams, and anyone “in a panic, having a hard time distinguishing or not sure what to do” should call the local police contact listed, according to one notice seen by Bloomberg.

On social media, some crypto investors have made unverified claims that they were summoned by local police recently and warned against the risk of investing in cryptocurrencies. One investor said local authorities required him to sell his holdings. Another said police asked him to delete the trading app from his phone.

Chinese officials see their success cleaning up the peer-to-peer lending industry two years ago as a model for its cryptocurrency crackdown, said the person familiar, asking not to be identified as the matter is private. The country purged the P2P industry after frauds and defaults became rampant, in some cases leading to suicide and street protests. In its heyday the sector had more than 50 million users and $150 billion in outstanding loans.

The extreme price swings of cryptocurrencies have already left a mark. In one high-profile case, a Chinese man from the eastern city of Dalian killed his three-year-old daughter and tried to commit suicide with his wife after losing 20 million yuan ($3.1 million) on a leveraged bet on Bitcoin last June, according to local media reports.

Peter, a Beijing tech worker, piled 20,000 yuan into cryptocurrencies three weeks ago, just in time for latest round of volatility. Within days, his portfolio grew to nearly 100,000 yuan, then quickly fell back down to 14,000 yuan. He echoed the carpe diem philosophy of crypto traders globally: “It doesn’t matter if it all goes to zero. But what if it brings me sudden wealth one day?”

ATO signals crypto crackdown as tax time looms

Tax&Compliance

The Tax Office will move to engage around 100,000 taxpayers ahead of tax time to alert them to their tax obligations as it moves to firm its stance on accounting for cryptocurrency.

The ATO on Friday warned that it would write to about 100,000 taxpayers to alert them to their tax obligations amid growing concerns that taxpayers believe their cryptocurrency gains are tax-free or only taxable when their holdings are cashed into Australian dollars.

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ATO analysis shows that there are more than 600,000 Australian taxpayers who have invested in crypto assets following surging interest throughout the pandemic.

ATO assistant commissioner Tim Loh expects his office’s proactive engagement to prompt almost 300,000 to lodge their 2021 tax returns.

“This year, we will be writing to around 100,000 taxpayers with cryptocurrency assets explaining their tax obligations and urging them to review their previously lodged returns,” Mr Loh said.

“We also expect to prompt almost 300,000 taxpayers as they lodge their 2021 tax return to report their cryptocurrency capital gains or losses.”

The ATO’s crackdown follows a softer, educative approach adopted through the 2020 income year. Last year, the Tax Office contacted 100,000 taxpayers who had traded crypto assets and prompted 140,000 taxpayers to lodge returns.

Mr Loh said his office was concerned to learn that the anonymous nature of trading crypto assets led taxpayers to believe their investments were untraceable. He said this year the ATO will head into tax time with access to more data and the ability to track those investing in crypto assets more closely.

“We are alarmed that some taxpayers think that the anonymity of cryptocurrencies provides a licence to ignore their tax obligations,” Mr Loh said.

“While it appears that cryptocurrency operates in an anonymous digital world, we closely track where it interacts with the real world through data from banks, financial institutions and cryptocurrency online exchanges to follow the money back to the taxpayer.”

The ATO will employ data-matching methods to link transactions from cryptocurrency-designated service providers to individuals’ tax returns, to ensure investors are paying the right amount of tax.

The warning is the latest in a series of crypto messaging efforts mounted by the Tax Office this year. ATO assistant commissioner Adam O’Grady last month warned tax agents and taxpayers that the Tax Office will be closely watching all capital events related to cryptocurrency come tax time.

“It is really important for all capital assets; we will be looking to ensure that the people have reported the capital gains events — and this is for both gains and losses,” he said.

The messaging was echoed by Mr Loh, who on Friday took to ensuring taxpayers were aware that all transactions — including buying, selling, swapping or exchanging one currency for another — are subject to capital gains tax and must be reported.

Mr Loh urged those invested in crypto assets to keep comprehensive records, even if only the wallet address of the other party was involved in a trade.

“The best tip to nail your cryptocurrency gains and losses is to keep accurate records including dates of transactions, the value in Australian dollars at the time of the transactions, what the transactions were for, and who the other party was, even if it’s just their wallet address,” Mr Loh said.

For those who accept cryptocurrencies as a form of payment for goods and services, Mr Loh said, payments will be taxed as income, based on whatever the value of the cryptocurrency is in Australian dollars.

Mr Loh said that penalties would be softened for those who amend errors in their tax returns, before warning that a failure to report capital events will attract the ATO’s attention, and potentially result in an audit.

“If you realise you’ve made a mistake and correct your return, we will significantly reduce penalties,” he said. “However, failing to report on crypto assets and not taking action when reminded will prompt penalties and potentially an audit.”

ATO signals crypto crackdown as tax time looms John Buckley Last Updated: 31 May 2021 Published: 31 May 2021

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