South African Rand Dollar Forecast: USD/ZAR Gains as Protests and Lockdowns Overshadow Muted Dollar
USD/ZAR Price Outlook:
USD/ZAR Breaks above Resistance, upside prevails for now
US Dollar remains the primary catalyst for USD/ZAR trajectory as major event risk nears
Violent protests result in army intervention
South Africa’s Economic Outlook: Violent Protests, Extended Lockdowns and an Edge for USD/ZAR
USD/ZAR has entered the week higher, buoyed by violent protests and extended lockdown measures that continue to bring the South African economy to its knees. With prices now hovering around 14.40, the week ahead may provide for some big moves in USD/ZAR price action and potentially a new systemic trend.
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As discussed in Friday’s article, the arrest of former South African President Jacob Zuma has resulted in further political turmoil, a key catalyst for the Emerging Market (EM) currency.
However, over the weekend, protests turned violent as Zuma supporters continue to target South African retail stores and businesses throughout the country, resulting in billions of Rand’s worth of damage to an already somber economy.
USD/ZAR Price Setup
USD/ZAR is nearing a critical level of resistance at the key psychological level of 14.50 as prices continue to edge higher. After breaking above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021 move, bulls are eager to drive prices back to the 15.00 mark in the hope of gaining control of the prominent trend.
USD/ZAR Daily Chart
Chart Prepared by Tammy Da Costa using IG Charts
With prices trading above both the 50 and 100-Day Moving Average, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)remains well-above the zero line suggesting that bullish momentum remains favorable.
With an array of US economic data lined up for the week, USD/ZAR may experience an influx of volatility and the potential for a dominant trend to come into play.
— Written by Tammy Da Costa on behalf of DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Tammy on Twitter: @Tams707
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South Africa’s rand falls as violence spreads in wake of Zuma jailing
JOHANNESBURG: South Africa’s rand fell early on Monday, weighed down by spreading, though sporadic, violence that has followed the jailing of the country’s former president Jacob Zuma on contempt of court charges.At 0620 GMT, the rand traded at 14.3200 against the dollar, 0.83% weaker than its previous close.“The rand, having posted steady gains going into the close of the week, is this morning trading on the back foot as the effects of the local protests weigh on the local unit; the rand is underperforming its emerging-market peers as a result,” analysts at Nedbank wrote in a note.“Given the prevailing circumstances, any rand strength again is likely to be met with demand for dollar.“The unrest had initially mainly been concentrated in Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), where he started serving his 15-month sentence for contempt of court on Wednesday night. Over the weekend, protests spread to Johannesburg.The incarceration of Zuma has angered his supporters and exposed rifts within the ruling African National Congress President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Sunday there was no justification for violence and that it was damaging efforts to rebuild the economy amid the Covid-19 pandemic.