斷電、禁交易所，中國接連出招但比特幣似乎影響不大
儘管面臨中國政府多方圍剿，比特幣一度面臨重擊，但經過一個月，一切似乎和中國政府的盤算不盡相同。
為了讓中國數位人民幣業務順利開展，中國政府有計畫的一步步進攻比特幣，在多處政府連手斷電礦場後，比特幣全網算力腰斬，幣值也連續崩跌，許多人甚至就像中國政府期望的那樣，認為比特幣終究要走向泡沫化。
然而比特幣精巧的設計，反而讓中國政府無所施力。當比特幣價值增長，越來越多人覺得有利可圖而投入挖礦以獲取比特幣時，比特幣網路的挖礦難度也會隨之提升，迫使礦工必須要付出更多資源挖礦，這樣的機制有助於比特幣網路保持平衡。
相反地，當全網算力大幅下降，礦工大量退出時，比特幣的挖礦難度也會隨之下降，誘使更多人投入挖礦。在中國政府於 2021 年六月大舉斷電礦場後，比特幣全網算力腰斬，隨之而來的是難度迅速下降。
原先貢獻全網算力近 60% 的中國礦工退出後，比特幣挖礦難度在一週內下降了約 30%，簡單來說，雖然比特幣幣值因此下跌了 40%，但礦工要獲取比特幣所需付出的資源也下降了 30%。一來一往之間，中國政府斷電礦場的政策，反而是將原本由中國礦工壟斷的挖礦事業，拱手讓給海外礦工，而且消耗的電力還更少。
▲ 比特幣算力從谷底又慢慢回升。（ Source：Bitinfochart）
2021 年 5 月，比特幣全網算力來到歷史高峰 186MTH/s（每秒百萬雜湊值），在中國政府介入後，算力驟降至兩年來最低的 68MTH/s，然而經歷一個月，全球礦工們積極搶下中國讓出的機會，順勢搶購中國礦工便宜出售的礦機，目前算力已回升到 110MTH/s。
除了礦工，雖然中國政府明文禁止交易所，但中國用戶並未消失市場，幣安（Binance）與火幣（Huobi）依然提供中國用戶交易管道，想阻止這些去中心化交易所，光靠中國網路長城還不夠，恐怕還需要金融長城，禁止中國人民將人民幣兌換成他國法幣，才有可能禁絕交易所生存空間。
中國政府打壓無效，最有力的證據就是在過去一個月，這些與中國高度相關的亞洲交易所，包括幣安、火幣與 OKEx，依然是全球最活絡的加密貨幣交易所。相比之下，今年風光上市的美國交易所 Coinbase 交易量，都遠遠落後於這些中國政府認為不合法的交易所。
不可否認，中國政府對於挖礦和交易所的禁令，都對比特幣造成一定程度的衝擊，但短短不到兩個月，比特幣算力與幣值明顯恢復良好，超出許多人預期。過去兩週比特幣上漲超過 40%，幣值從跌破 3 萬美元到超過 4 萬美元，如今落在 38,994 美元，應該讓前陣子接手中國礦機的礦工樂不可支。
（首圖來源：Pixabay）
【比特幣Bitcoin】比特幣升穿43000美元 下一個頂可挑戰10萬關？ - 香港經濟日報 - 即時新聞頻道 - iMoney智富 - 股樓投資
Bitcoin Price Prediction – A Move Back through to $47,500 Would Bring $49,000 into Play
After a mixed start to the week, it’s been a bullish morning for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin, BTC to USD, was up by 2.19% to $46,941.0.
A choppy start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $45,291.0 before making a move.
Steering clear of the of the first major support level at $45,061, Bitcoin rose to a late morning current day high $47,167.0.
Falling short of the first major resistance level at $47,441, however, Bitcoin slipped back to sub-$47,000 levels.
The Rest of the Pack
It has been a bullish morning for the broader crypto market.
At the time of writing, Chainlink and Polkadot were up by 7.56% and by 76.05% to lead the way once more.
Binance Coin (+4.45%), Ethereum (+4.23%), and Litecoin (+3.18%) also found strong support.
Bitcoin Cash SV (+2.52%), Cardano’s ADA (+1.48%), Crypto.com Coin (+1.43%), and Ripple’s XRP (+2.58%) trailed the front runners, however.
Through the early hours, the crypto total market fell to an early morning low $1,908bn before rising to a high $2,009bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $2,005bn.
Bitcoin’s dominance rose to an early morning high 44.65% before falling to a low 44.01%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 44.01%.
For the Afternoon Ahead
Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall back through the $46,565 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $47,441 back into play.
Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from the morning high $47,167.0.
Barring an extended crypto rally through the afternoon, the first major resistance level and Monday’s high $48,069 would likely cap any upside
In the event of an extended rally, however, Bitcoin could target $49,000 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $48,945.
A fall back through the $46,565 pivot would bring the first major support level at $45,061 into play.
Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$45,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $44,185.
Story continues
Looking beyond the support and resistance levels, we saw the 50 EMA pull away from the 100 and 200 EMAs through the late morning. This was after a narrowing through the early hours. We also saw the100 EMA pull away from the 200 EMA. The bullish mid-morning signals supported the late morning rally.
A continued widening of the 50 EMA from the 100 and the 200 EMAs this afternoon would bring $49,000 levels into play.
Avoiding a fall back through the $46,565 will be key in the early afternoon.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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