載舟覆舟！Crypto、PayPal走勢大相逕庭 比特幣是罪魁禍首
PayPal (PYPL-US) 和 Square (SQ-US) 都靠比特幣吸引顧客使用其 app 並維持其參與度，但兩家股價走勢卻大相逕庭，自從比特幣一個月前開始下跌以來，Square 股價就表現不佳。
如果加密貨幣持續熊市，兩家股價可能都會苦不堪言，但 Square 可能會面臨更多壓力，部分原因是該公司在散戶投資者中與比特幣的聯繫更為緊密。
兩種支付 app 都可輕鬆買賣和儲值加密貨幣，PayPal 在其 app 上提供數種加密貨幣，而 Square 只供應比特幣。這兩家作法像經紀人，賺取的是每筆交易的手續費和利潤。
來自加密貨幣的營收淨額並非其整體業務的大部分。MoffettNathanson 分析師 Lisa Ellis 指出，PayPal 今年營收約只因加密貨幣交易增加 2%，在營收總額 260 億美元中僅占 3 億至 6 億美元。
Square 第一季營收總額 51 億美元，其中比特幣營收 35 億美元。Square 的會計方式是：扣除購買比特幣的成本，在當季 9.64 億美元毛利總額中，只計入這些交易 7500 萬美元的毛利。
雖然加密貨幣的獲利非常微薄，但這兩家支付公司都將加密貨幣交易視為攏絡顧客並提高 app 參與度的一種手段。
Ellis 指出，「他們的加密貨幣用戶一天會多次打開 app 確認價格，這就讓公司有機會出售其他服務。」
Square 與加密貨幣聯繫更緊密，但部分原因是其創辦人兼執行長 Jack Dorsey 是加密貨幣狂粉，近日也曾在推特上表示，「比特幣使一切變得更好。」Square 過去幾季資產負債表上認列投資比特幣 2.2 億美元，現已對該投資進行減值。
加密貨幣低迷顯然對 Square 的影響更大。在過去的一個月中，Square 股價下跌約 17%，而 PayPal 股價僅下跌 4%。
但加密貨幣並非 Square 唯一苦痛來源，投資者逃離高倍數成長股的浪潮也重創 Square，反映投資者在價格上反映預期上升的通膨，這點會降低未來收益的現值。
根據未來 12 個月的估算，Square 現行股價是企業價值倍數 (EV/Ebitda) 的 113 倍，PayPal 則為 43 倍，對比其他同業如 Visa (V-US) 和 Mastercard (MA-US) 僅 27 倍至 30 倍。
Ellis 談到 PayPal 和 Square 時說，「他們是我兩家長期最愛的支付公司，但實際考慮上來說，機構投資者如果擔憂長期通膨，就會對這些高倍數股覺得反感。」
隨著比特幣價格的飆升，投資者也迷戀上這些股票，但水能載舟也會覆舟，如今比特幣和其他加密貨幣恐怕也是令他們憂心忡忡的原因之一。
週一美股普遍上漲，PayPal 週一上漲 2.58%，收 257.17 美元；Square 上漲 5.47%，收 210.95 美元。
China’s latest crackdown on crypto caused by climate concerns
China’s escalating push to rein in cryptocurrency mining was triggered in part by concern that the practice has stoked a surge in illicit coal extraction, endangering lives and undermining Xi Jinping’s ambitious environmental goals.
Authorities decided to act after concluding the spike in electricity consumption from server farms underpinning Bitcoin and other tokens was a key factor behind rising demand for coal in certain parts of China, according to a person who participated in high-level government meetings on the issue and asked not to be identified discussing private information.
Rising coal demand prompted some producers to restart idled mines without official approval, leading to higher safety risks and a jump in deadly accidents this year, the person said.
While China’s central government has enforced a strict ban on digital-asset exchanges and discouraged crypto mining for years, authorities in some remote areas of the country have been more welcoming of the industry because it brings in much-needed revenue. About 65% of the world’s Bitcoin mining took place in China as of April 2020, according to an estimate by the University of Cambridge.
Growing concerns about the environmental knock-on effects help explain why China’s Financial Stability and Development Committee said on May 21 it would crack down on crypto mining and trading, in what amounted to one of the government’s most forceful condemnations of the crypto ecosystem to date.
The warning has fueled a selloff in cryptocurrencies from record highs and stoked a debate over how investors should respond to the environmental costs of digital assets. Musings on the issue from Tesla Inc. founder and crypto advocate Elon Musk have by turns destroyed and conjured billions of dollars of market value in recent weeks. According to one estimate, each $1 of Bitcoin value created in 2018 was responsible for $0.37 of health and climate damage in China and $0.49 in the U.S.
Bitcoin has dropped about 40% since mid-April, paring an epic surge that has drawn in everyone from Wall Street pros to mom-and-pop investors in Seoul. The biggest cryptocurrency was trading at $39,293 as of 10:35 a.m. Hong Kong time.
China’s National Energy Administration and National Development and Reform Commission didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
Disentangling crypto mining’s impact on coal consumption in China isn’t easy, especially during periods of economic recovery when power demand is rising more broadly. But in areas like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia that have long been favorite destinations for the industry, Chinese authorities have drawn a direct link between crypto and coal.
A preliminary government investigation into an accident that trapped 21 people inside a coal mine in Xinjiang last month found that the mine had been restarted without official permission to help meet rising power demand from crypto server farms, according to a person with knowledge of the probe who asked not to be named discussing private information. There has been no official update on the trapped coal miners’ status since the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported in early May that a rescue team had entered the mine.
Xinjiang alone accounts for nearly 36% of Bitcoin’s mining capacity, according to Cambridge estimates. That’s thanks to inexpensive coal-powered electricity, low temperatures that keep mining rigs cool and underdeveloped power grids that sometimes lead to excess supply.
Some observers are skeptical of China’s emissions pledges, but the country’s top leaders have vowed to make the fight against climate change a priority despite the potential short-term economic drag. At a climate summit convened last month by Joe Biden, Xi reiterated China’s plan to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and attain net-zero status by 2060, in part by reducing coal consumption.
For a Chinese government wary of the anonymity, volatility and borderless nature of digital assets, crypto miners represent an obvious target. The country’s regulators have long warned that cryptocurrencies can facilitate money laundering, fraud and terrorist financing.
While previous efforts to rein in crypto mining have failed to gain traction at the local level, there are signs that may be changing. Inner Mongolia, which banned crypto mining in April, said on Tuesday it plans to raise penalties for companies and individuals and discipline government officials who aid the industry. Last week, the region said it had set up a system for whistle blowers to report anyone who defies the ban.
Meme coins or digital gold? Blockchain analyst weighs in on where crypto markets are headed
The cryptocurrency space could branch out into three different markets — and people may even stop talking about crypto as a single entity one year on, predicted Paul Brody, global blockchain leader at EY. Bitcoin and ether have had a wild ride in recent weeks, with billions of dollars wiped off their market value, according to Coinmarketcap.com. Bitcoin, the largest digital currency by market cap, at one point plunged by 30% to hover near the $30,000 level. It has since bounced back partially to current levels of about $38,090, according to Coin Metrics. There are currently three “very different” stories going on in the cryptocurrency space, Brody told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Tuesday.
The first category is what Brody termed “meme coins” such as dogecoin, a digital token that originally started as a joke. Its meteoric rise in price, however, has been no laughing matter. Since the start of the year, dogecoin has risen more than 7,000%, according to data from Coinbase.
This segment of cryptocurrencies “could be categorized as investing as entertainment,” Brody said. “It’s hard for me to predict where they’re going to go, but I don’t see them as having a very big future in the ecosystem,” he added.
- Bitcoin as ‘digital gold’
The next part of the ecosystem revolves around bitcoin, Brody said. The digital token has often been cited as a potential competitor to gold as a hedge against inflation and safe-haven asset. Still, bitcoin’s price volatility tends to be much higher as compared with gold. According to Brody, however, bitcoin is “better than gold” in some ways. “When the price of gold goes up people mine more, but you can’t really do that with bitcoin,” he said.
The cryptocurrency is limited and a maximum of 21 million bitcoins can be “mined” — there are currently more than 18 million already in circulation. New bitcoin is created by computer users who solve complicated mathematical puzzles, and they take up a lot of energy. “Bitcoin is gonna go up if everybody buys into this idea that you should have some percentage of your … portfolio in bitcoin — that will drive a lot of participation,” Brody said. Questions remain around bitcoin’s exact place in an investment portfolio, with analysts from Societe Generale saying that it’s still “highly contested.”
- The Ethereum ecosystem