研調：比特幣日均成交量約相當英鎊在外流通量
過去一週比特幣再度發光發熱，不僅上週末漲破 6 萬美元大關，還獲得多家大型銀行力挺。
財經網站 MarketWatch 報導，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）表示，將為高淨值客戶提供「比特幣基金」，能把比特幣納入資產配置。
另一家大型金融機構德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）分析師暨哈佛經濟學家拉布爾（Marion Laboure）也發研究報告，加入看好比特幣的行列。她預期比特幣不會曇花一現，只是行情波動將是常態。
拉布爾表示，比特幣市值達 1 兆美元，「重要性不容忽略」，預料在基金經理人和企業持續買進推波助瀾下，比特幣價格可能持續走高。
但拉布爾指出，真正值得一辯的是：比特幣是否單憑價值節節看漲，就能自成一種資產類別？她認為，比特幣的流動性低，是一大障礙。她舉例以蘋果比較，2020 年蘋果股票成交量總計 400 億股，相當於在外流通總股數 270%；相較去年總計成交 2,800 萬個的比特幣，相當於總流通量 150%。
拉布爾指出，流動性低加劇比特幣的行情波動，只要額外幾筆大額買進或賣出，就足以「顯著衝擊供需平衡」。
拉布爾認為，未來比特幣價值仍會劇烈波動，隨民眾相信它值多少而起起伏伏，這就是所謂的「仙子效應」（Tinkerbell Effect）。她解釋，「仙子效應」是經濟術語，以童話故事《小飛俠彼得潘》（Peter Pan）的小仙子（Tinkerbell）命名，描述某件事若愈多人相信，就愈可能實現，一如彼得潘宣稱小仙子真的存在，正因孩童深信不疑。
從這角度來看，拉布爾認為，比特幣其實就像電動車大廠特斯拉（Tesla），因「必須把潛能轉化為成果，才支撐得起價值主張」。撐起特斯拉市值的，是汽車工業大舉轉向電動車的趨勢，以及特斯拉勢必成為市場領導者的假設。
拉布爾估計，比特幣目前總值約相當於日圓流通總值 102%、歐元流通總直值 65%、美元流通總值 53%，和英鎊流通總值 904%，但比特幣日均成交量約只相當英鎊在外流通量 0.06%。
她的結論是，這款加密幣若要保持價值不墜，有個條件必須到位：跨國境數位貨幣成為大勢所趨，比特幣必須引領這股趨勢，成為未來的支付工具。
（本文由 MoneyDJ新聞 授權轉載；首圖來源：shutterstock）
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The US Government Sold Some Bitcoin – And the Winning Bidder Got a Bargain
A key reason bitcoin‘s price has doubled this year, according to many analysts, is so few holders want to part with the cryptocurrency: “more buyers than sellers,” as the old Wall Street adage goes.
Unless you’re the U.S. government, which this week sold some bitcoin for dollars.
The amount was tiny in relative terms – not even an entire bitcoin, just 0.7501 BTC, worth a little over $40,000. Compare that to the current federal budget deficit, projected during the current fiscal year to exceed the record $3.1 trillion reported for 2020. A veritable drop in the bucket.
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However, the winning bidder got a good deal.
The Washington Post reported the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA), which held the two-day event that ended on March 17, often holds auctions, usually of surplus federal assets such as office furniture, school buses and aircraft parts.
However, GSA told the Post the federal government has been auctioning bitcoin since 2014, after the FBI shut down the online black market Silk Road and seized more than 170,000 bitcoin in the crackdown.
In this week’s auction, the winning bidder got the bitcoin for $53,104.
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According to CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index, the cryptocurrency never fell below $54,200 on Wednesday, and it has since jumped to about $59,000.
The government told the newspaper the auction commanded a premium relative to the market price. The GSA didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment from CoinDesk.
“Auctioning off this share of cryptocurrency broke new ground for our GSA Auctions platform, and we’re extremely pleased by the enthusiasm we’ve seen from our bidders,” Acting Regional Administrator Kevin Kerns, with GSA’s southeast sunbelt region, said in a statement to the Post.
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