美股多頭的好消息！三張圖告訴你：為何美股仍有上漲空間 作者 FX168

美股多頭的好消息！三張圖告訴你：為何美股仍有上漲空間 作者 FX168

© Reuters. 美股多頭的好消息！三張圖告訴你：為何美股仍有上漲空間

FX168財經報社(香港)訊 知名財經網站Business Insider周一(7月5日)撰文稱，美股標普500指數上周五連續第七次收于歷史高位，距離打破連續八次收于新高的紀錄僅咫尺之遙。各種情緒指標都沒有顯示出股市出現“狂熱”(Euphoria)跡象，這為美股未來進一步上漲奠定了基礎，因為在達到“貪婪”和“狂熱”的水平之前，投資者還有足夠的空間對股市感到興奮。

投資者情緒往往跟隨價格變化，在接近市場峰值時出現“貪婪”或“狂熱”指標，在接近市場拋售底部時出現“恐懼”指標。這種動態正是這些指標被視為反向投資的原因，因為與情緒指標持相反觀點往往是有好處的。

在美股處于創紀錄高位之際，沒有任何“狂熱”跡象表明，股市還有進一步上行空間。

在投資者中沒有顯示出“狂熱”或“貪婪”跡象的情緒指標包括CNN的恐懼和貪婪指數，美國銀行的牛市/熊市指標，以及AAII投資者情緒調查。

CNN的恐懼和貪婪指數仍然低于50，在過去的一個月里一直處于“中性”區域。該指數上周五收于46，僅略高于此前一周的44。該指數在2020年1月達到99，處于“極度貪婪”區域，這正好在歷史上最快的熊市之前出現；此外，該指數在2020年3月的大流行谷底附近達到1，處于“極度恐懼”區域。這為其作為反向指標提供了可信度。

(圖片來源：CNN)

與此同時，美國銀行的牛市/熊市指數最近幾周持續下跌，從2月份的周期高點7.7降至6.4。一旦該指標突破8，就會出現反向“賣出”讀數，這表明投資者仍有足夠的空間看漲股市。

(圖片來源：美國銀行)

最后，本周美國個人投資者信心調查(AAII Investor Sentiment Survey)的樂觀指數升至48.6%。盡管調查顯示，看漲情緒有所上升，遠高于38%的歷史平均水平，但仍低于4月份52.7%的高點，表明看漲情緒仍有上升空間。

(圖片來源：AAII)

當然，這些因素并不表示，投資者在美股方面沒有什么需要擔心的。通脹上升、利率上升和可能的增稅都是今年市場面臨的威脅，第二季度業績的不確定性也可能令股市承壓。

相關文章請點擊【重磅市場風險警告！《巴倫周刊》：這三大因素恐令美股“崩潰”】

原文鏈接

中概股盤前普跌：滴滴跌幅擴大至30%！美股標普500指數今天將刷新一大紀錄？ 作者 FX168

© Reuters. 中概股盤前普跌：滴滴跌幅擴大至30%！美股標普500指數今天將刷新一大紀錄？

FX168財經報社(香港)訊 周二(7月6日)，滴滴美股盤前跌幅擴大至30%。此前，國家網信辦要求應用商店下架“滴滴出行”App，并認真整改存在的問題。Uber盤前跌超2%，Uber為滴滴的第二大股東。

此外，滿幫盤前跌近16%，BOSS直聘盤前跌逾7%，此前國家網信辦對“運滿滿”“貨車幫”“BOSS直聘”啟動網絡安全審查。

中概股盤前全線下跌：知乎跌6.64%，老虎證券跌3.83%，嗶哩嗶哩跌3.27%，虎牙、斗魚跌約3%，百度、理想汽車跌超2%。斗魚美股盤前跌幅擴大至逾10%。

周一由于獨立日假期，美股休市，business insider撰文指出，在連續7天創歷史新高后，美國股市還將繼續上漲，但是投資者的樂觀情緒仍受到抑制。

標普500指數上周五連續第七次收于歷史高位，距離打破連續八次收于新高的紀錄僅咫尺之遙。

但投資者似乎并不在意，因為各種情緒指標都沒有顯示出股市出現樂觀跡象。這種動態為股市未來的進一步上漲奠定了基礎，因為在達到貪婪和狂熱的水平之前，投資者還有足夠的空間對股市感到興奮。

“有點無聊。但你不能在市場不景氣的時候賣。”美國銀行在周五的一份報告中總結了過去一周市場的穩步上漲。

投資者情緒往往跟隨價格變化，在接近市場峰值的地方發現了“貪婪”或“興奮”，在接近市場拋售底部的地方發現了“恐懼”。這種動態正是這些指標被視為反向投資的原因，因為與人氣數據持相反觀點往往是有好處的。

在股市處于創紀錄高位之際，沒有任何樂觀跡象表明，隨著市場繼續攀上擔憂之墻，并贏得不相信的投資者，股市還有進一步上行空間。

在投資者中沒有顯示出興奮或貪婪的跡象的情緒指標包括CNN的恐懼和貪婪指數，美國銀行的牛市/熊市指標，以及AAII投資者情緒調查。

CNN的恐懼和貪婪指數仍然低于50，在過去的一個月里一直處于“中性”區域。該指數上周五收于46點，僅略高于上周的“恐懼”指數44點。

該指數在2020年1月的“極度貪婪”讀數為99，正好在歷史上最快的熊市之前，并在2020年3月的大流行谷底附近達到了“極度恐懼”讀數1，這為其作為反向指標提供了可信度。

與此同時，美國銀行的牛市/熊市指數最近幾周持續下跌，從2月份的周期高點7.7降至6.4。一旦該指標突破8點，就會出現反向“賣出”讀數，表明投資者仍有足夠的空間看漲股市。

最后，本周美國個人投資者信心調查(AAII Investor Sentiment Survey)的樂觀指數升至48.6%。雖然調查顯示，看漲情緒有所上升，遠高于38%的歷史平均水平，但仍低于4月份52.7%的高點，表明看漲情緒仍有上升空間。

然而，在股市方面，投資者并沒有什么可擔心的。通脹上升、利率上升和可能的增稅是今年市場面臨的威脅，第二季度業績的不確定性也可能令投資者承壓。

但從歷史上看，當股市達到歷史高點時，投資者對市場的態度如此悲觀，通常是一個堅定的反向指標來購買股票。

原文鏈接

US stocks have further to run after 7 straight days of record highs as readings of investor euphoria remain in check

The stock market is within striking distance of breaking the record of consecutive closes at all-time-highs.

But investors don’t seem fazed, with various sentiment indicators showing no signs of euphoria.

Sentiment often follows price, with “greed” readings found near market peaks and “fear” readings found near market bottoms.

Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell.

The S&P 500 notched its seventh consecutive close at all-time-highs on Friday, putting it within striking distance of breaking the record streak of eight consecutive closes at new highs.

But investors don’t seem to care, based on various sentiment indicators that show no signs of euphoria in the stock market. This dynamic sets stocks up for further gains ahead, as there is plenty of room left for investors to get excited about stocks before hitting levels of greed and euphoria.

“Kinda dull. But you don’t sell a dull market,” Bank of America said in a Friday note, summing up the steady grind higher in markets over the past week.

Investor sentiment often follows price, with readings of “greed” or “euphoria” found near market peaks, and readings of “fear” found near the bottom of a market sell-off. This dynamic is why the indicators are considered contrarian, as it often pays to take the opposite view of the sentiment readings.

No signs of euphoria with the stock market at record highs suggests that there is further upside ahead for equities, as the market continues to climb a wall of worry and win over unconvinced investors.

Read more: RBC: Buy these 19 stocks that should outperform in the 3rd quarter on the way to upside of at least 20% over the next year

Sentiment indicators that have shown no signs of euphoria or greed among investors include the CNN Fear & Greed Index, the Bank of America Bull/Bear indicator, and the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey.

The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains below 50, stuck in the “Neutral” zone over the past month. The index closed at 46 on Friday, and was only slightly higher than its “Fear” reading last week of 44. The index had an “extreme greed” reading of 99 in January 2020, just prior to the fastest bear market in history, and hit an “extreme fear” reading of 1 in March 2020, right around the pandemic bottom, lending credibility to its use as a contrarian indicator.

CNN

Meanwhile, the BofA Bull/Bear indicator has continued to fall in recent weeks to a reading of 6.4 from a cycle-high of 7.7 in February. A contrarian “sell” reading is generated once the indicator crosses eight, suggesting there is plenty of room left for investors to get bullish on the stock market.

Bank of America

Finally, bullish readings from the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey rose to 48.6% this week. While the survey shows a rise in bullishness that is well above its historical average of 38%, the reading is still below the April high of 52.7%, signaling there is still room for upside.

AAII

It isn’t the case, though, that investors have nothing to worry about when it comes to stocks. Rising inflation, higher interest rates, and a potential increase in taxes have served as overhangs for the market this year, and uncertainty regarding second quarter earnings results could also be weighing on investors.

But historically, when investors have been this bearish on the market when stocks traded at all-time highs, it’s usually been a solid contrarian indicator to buy stocks.