載舟覆舟！Crypto、PayPal走勢大相逕庭 比特幣是罪魁禍首
PayPal (PYPL-US) 和 Square (SQ-US) 都靠比特幣吸引顧客使用其 app 並維持其參與度，但兩家股價走勢卻大相逕庭，自從比特幣一個月前開始下跌以來，Square 股價就表現不佳。
如果加密貨幣持續熊市，兩家股價可能都會苦不堪言，但 Square 可能會面臨更多壓力，部分原因是該公司在散戶投資者中與比特幣的聯繫更為緊密。
兩種支付 app 都可輕鬆買賣和儲值加密貨幣，PayPal 在其 app 上提供數種加密貨幣，而 Square 只供應比特幣。這兩家作法像經紀人，賺取的是每筆交易的手續費和利潤。
來自加密貨幣的營收淨額並非其整體業務的大部分。MoffettNathanson 分析師 Lisa Ellis 指出，PayPal 今年營收約只因加密貨幣交易增加 2%，在營收總額 260 億美元中僅占 3 億至 6 億美元。
Square 第一季營收總額 51 億美元，其中比特幣營收 35 億美元。Square 的會計方式是：扣除購買比特幣的成本，在當季 9.64 億美元毛利總額中，只計入這些交易 7500 萬美元的毛利。
雖然加密貨幣的獲利非常微薄，但這兩家支付公司都將加密貨幣交易視為攏絡顧客並提高 app 參與度的一種手段。
Ellis 指出，「他們的加密貨幣用戶一天會多次打開 app 確認價格，這就讓公司有機會出售其他服務。」
Square 與加密貨幣聯繫更緊密，但部分原因是其創辦人兼執行長 Jack Dorsey 是加密貨幣狂粉，近日也曾在推特上表示，「比特幣使一切變得更好。」Square 過去幾季資產負債表上認列投資比特幣 2.2 億美元，現已對該投資進行減值。
加密貨幣低迷顯然對 Square 的影響更大。在過去的一個月中，Square 股價下跌約 17%，而 PayPal 股價僅下跌 4%。
但加密貨幣並非 Square 唯一苦痛來源，投資者逃離高倍數成長股的浪潮也重創 Square，反映投資者在價格上反映預期上升的通膨，這點會降低未來收益的現值。
根據未來 12 個月的估算，Square 現行股價是企業價值倍數 (EV/Ebitda) 的 113 倍，PayPal 則為 43 倍，對比其他同業如 Visa (V-US) 和 Mastercard (MA-US) 僅 27 倍至 30 倍。
Ellis 談到 PayPal 和 Square 時說，「他們是我兩家長期最愛的支付公司，但實際考慮上來說，機構投資者如果擔憂長期通膨，就會對這些高倍數股覺得反感。」
隨著比特幣價格的飆升，投資者也迷戀上這些股票，但水能載舟也會覆舟，如今比特幣和其他加密貨幣恐怕也是令他們憂心忡忡的原因之一。
週一美股普遍上漲，PayPal 週一上漲 2.58%，收 257.17 美元；Square 上漲 5.47%，收 210.95 美元。
A ‘bloody crypto’ Memorial Day weekend? Some bitcoin bulls are dreading the long U.S. holiday break
Bullish investors in bitcoin aren’t all jazzed about the long U.S. Memorial Day holiday weekend ahead.
The sun, the fresh air, barbecues, the first major summer break, as more doses of COVID vaccines have hit the arms of Americans and those in other parts of the world. That setup appears to be taking a back seat to growing agita about bearishness that could further crystallize in the coming days for bitcoin BTCUSD, +2.79% and the broader crypto complex, including dogecoin DOGEUSD, +0.64% and Ether ETHUSD, +3.42% on the Ethereum blockchain.
“There’s a bloody crypto weekend coming,” Yves Lamoureux, president of macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co., told MarketWatch on Friday.
U.S. markets are closed Monday for Memorial Day but crypto markets are open 24 hours.
Lamoureux isn’t the only one harboring Memorial Day anxieties. Billionaire digital-asset entrepreneur Barry Silbert tweeted that he hopes that bitcoin takes the weekend off.
A report on CoinTelegraph speculated that bitcoin still could skid to $20,000 or below. The asset was most recently changing hands at $36,199, down over 7%, on CoinDesk. Bitcoin is up 24% year-to-date, but off 44% from its mid-April peak at $64,829.14.
Technical analyst at Katie Stockton, who runs Fairlead Strategies, told MarketWatch that bitcoin has benefited from short-term oversold conditions for the past couple of weeks, stabilizing near $34K support.
However, she said it is struggling with its 200-day moving average. Technical analysts use moving averages as gauges of long term and short-term momentum in an asset.
“My short-term gauges are pointing higher, but we have no convincing intermediate-term ‘buy’ signals,” Stockton said.
With this in mind the technical analyst said that support near $34,000 may be in jeopardy after more of a bounce, “so we have our eyes” on $27,000 “as a possible entry.”
Dogecoin prices, the popular meme crypto engineered in 2013 as a lighthearted riff off the proliferation of bitcoin alternatives, is changing hands at 31.6 cents, down over 6%. The altcoin is down nearly 60% from its all-time peak earlier in May. That said, the digital-asset is up 6,500% in the year to date.
The No. 2 crypto by market value, Ether, was down 9% and changing hands at $2,528, up nearly 240% thus far in 2021.
However volatile, the gains in crypto have mostly outstripped those for conventional assets (with the exception of meme stocks like AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC, -1.51% and GameStop Corp. GME, -12.64% ).
The Dow Jones Industrial DJIA, +0.19% was up 0.2% Friday and up about 13% in the year’s first six months or so. The S&P 500 index SPX, +0.08% was 0.1% higher on the session and looking at a year-to-date rise of about 12%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.09% was up 0.1% and headed for a gain of 6.7% so far this year. Gold futures GC00, +0.41% , meanwhile, were up 0.4% on the day and rising 0.6% year to date.
Lamoureux says that weekends for crypto have become notoriously treacherous “because liquidity dries up” and “if there is blood in the water sharks will pressure this lower and kill the weak competition that was in trouble.”
The investor and strategist said that leverage in the system also has played a role on amplifying moves in digital assets.
A report from Barrons.com written by Avi Salzman explained that there are essentially two bitcoin markets: one dominated by mainstream brokers, like Coinbase Global and Robinhood, and other dominated by investors using derivatives, people who care less about crypto prices rising and are more focused on making money based on directional moves in assets.
Volatility can breed volatility in such an environment, particularly if few investors are willing to step in the staunch the carnage as downturns takes hold.
There is no one narrative that accounts for the shift in momentum for bitcoin and its ilk. A number of reports have pegged it to comments from China to Japan, but the moves for crypto aren’t always synchronized with the headlines.
To be sure, the crypto community has historically viewed slides as buying opportunities, prime for long-term investors.
However, new investors may face challenges trying to stomach major dives.
Lamoureux said that one, big factor that should serve as support for bitcoin and mainstream crypto has been the ascent of stablecoins, such as Tether USDTUSD, -0.02% , whose price typically has a fiat currency peg and more consistent prices.
Stablecoins like Tether, tend to be seen as a gateway into crypto because they can ease transactactions in other crypto using stablecoins. Tether’s market value has been on a steady rise.
Crypto: Coinbase-partner Circle raises $440 million from Fidelity and others
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