Why Dogecoin Is Up 20%

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Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) – After China imposed a record antitrust fine on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., the e-commerce giant did an unusual thing: It thanked regulators.“Alibaba would not have achieved our growth without sound government regulation and service, and the critical oversight, tolerance and support from all of our constituencies have been crucial to our development,” the company said in an open letter. “For this, we are full of gratitude and respect.”It’s a sign of how odd China’s crackdown on the power of big tech has been compared with the rest of the world. Mark Zuckerberg and Tim Cook would likely not express such public gratitude if the U.S. government were to hit Facebook Inc. or Apple Inc. with record antitrust fines.But almost everything about China’s regulatory push is out of the ordinary. Beijing regulators wrapped up their landmark probe in just four months, compared with the years that such investigations take in the U.S. or Europe. They sent a clear message to the country’s largest corporations and their leaders that anti-competitive behavior will have consequences.For Alibaba, the $2.8 billion fine was less severe than many feared and helps lift a cloud of uncertainty hanging over founder Jack Ma’s internet empire. The 18.2 billion yuan penalty was based on just 4% of the internet giant’s 2019 domestic revenue, regulators said. While that’s triple the previous high of almost $1 billion that U.S. chipmaker Qualcomm Inc. handed over in 2015, it’s far less than the maximum 10% allowed under Chinese law.The fine came with a plethora of “rectifications” that Alibaba will have to put in place – such as curtailing the practice of forcing merchants to choose between Alibaba or a competing platform – many of which the company had already pledged to establish.Read more: China Fines Alibaba Record $2.8 Billion After Monopoly ProbeAlibaba Chief Executive Officer Daniel Zhang on Saturday declared his company now ready to move on from its ordeal, while China’s Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily issued assurances that Beijing wasn’t trying to stifle the sector.The Hangzhou-based firm “has escaped possible outcomes such as a forced breakup or divestment of assets. The penalty will not shake up its business model, either,” said Jet Deng, an antitrust lawyer at the Beijing office of law firm Dentons.Still, neither Zhang nor state media addressed lingering questions around the extent to which Beijing remains intent on reining in its internet and fintech giants, a broad campaign that’s wiped more than $250 billion off Alibaba’s valuation since October. The e-commerce giant’s speedy capitulation also underscores its vulnerability to further regulatory action – a far cry from just six years ago, when Alibaba openly contested one agency’s censure over counterfeit goods on Taobao and eventually forced the State Administration for Industry and Commerce to backtrack on its allegations.Beyond antitrust, government agencies are said to be scrutinizing other parts of Ma’s empire, including Ant Group Co.’s consumer-lending businesses and Alibaba’s extensive media holdings. And the shock of the crackdown will continue to resonate with peers from Tencent Holdings Ltd. and Baidu Inc. to Meituan, forcing them to tread far more carefully on business expansions and acquisitions for some time to come.What Bloomberg Intelligence SaysChina’s record fine on Alibaba may lift the regulatory overhang that has weighed on the company since the start of an anti-monopoly probe in late December. The 18.2 billion yuan ($2.8 billion) fine, to penalize the anti-competitive practice of merchant exclusivity, is equivalent to 4% of Alibaba’s 2019 domestic sales. Still, the company may have to be conservative with acquisitions and its broader business practices.– Vey-Sern Ling and Tiffany Tam, analystsClick here for the full research.The investigation into Alibaba was one of the opening salvos in a campaign seemingly designed to curb the power of China’s internet leaders, which kicked off after Ma infamously rebuked “pawn shop” Chinese lenders, regulators who don’t get the internet, and the “old men” of the global banking community. Those comments set in motion an unprecedented regulatory offensive, including scuttling Ant’s $35 billion initial public offering.It remains unclear whether the watchdog or other agencies might demand further action. Regulators are said, for instance, to be concerned about Alibaba’s ability to sway public discourse and want the company to sell some of its media assets, including the South China Morning Post, Hong Kong’s leading English-language newspaper.Read more: China Presses Alibaba to Sell Media Assets, Including SCMPChina’s top financial regulators now see Tencent as the next target for increased supervision, Bloomberg News has reported. And the central bank is said to be leading discussions around establishing a joint venture with local technology giants to oversee the lucrative data they collect from hundreds of millions of consumers, which would be a significant escalation in regulators’ attempts to tighten their grip over the country’s internet sector.“The high fine puts the regulator in the media spotlight and sends a strong signal to the tech sector that such types of exclusionary conduct will no longer be tolerated,” said Angela Zhang, author of “Chinese Antitrust Exceptionalism” and director of the Centre for Chinese Law at the University of Hong Kong. “It’s a stone that kills two birds.”For now, it appears investors are just glad it wasn’t worse. In its statement, the State Administration for Market Regulation concluded Alibaba had used data and algorithms “to maintain and strengthen its own market power and obtain improper competitive advantage.” Its practice of imposing a “pick one from two” choice on merchants “shuts out and restricts competition” in the domestic online retail market, according to the statement.The firm will be required to implement “comprehensive rectifications,” including strengthening internal controls, upholding fair competition and protecting businesses on its platform and consumers’ rights, the regulator said. It will need to submit reports on self-regulation to the authority for three consecutive years.Alibaba said it will hold a conference call Monday morning Hong Kong time to address the antitrust watchdog’s decree. The company will have to make adjustments but can now “start over,” Zhang wrote in a memo to Alibaba’s employees Saturday.“We believe market concerns over the anti-monopoly investigation on BABA are addressed by SAMR’s recent decision and penalties,” Jefferies analysts wrote in a research note entitled “A New Starting Point.”Indeed, The People’s Daily said in its commentary Saturday that the punishment was intended merely to “prevent the disorderly expansion of capital.”“It doesn’t mean denying the significant role of platform economy in overall economic and social development, and doesn’t signal a shift of attitude in terms of the country’s support to the platform economy,” the newspaper said. “Regulations are for better development, and ‘reining in’ is also a kind of love.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

What is a Dogecoin Worth?

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What is a Dogecoin Worth?

One Doge = One Doge. At least that’s what many in the Dogecoin community say and which seeks to make humorous Dogecoin’s (DOGE-USD) mix of steady inflation and high price volatility.

In a cryptocurrency-world dominated still largely by Bitcoin (BTC-USD), Dogecoin stands out remarkably among the ‘non-Bitcoins’, also known as altcoins, for several reasons:

It has some high-profile persons who remark on and follow it, in particular the self-anointed “former CEO of Dogecoin” Elon Musk who appears to use it as a way to mock Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.
It is one of the oldest cryptocurrencies out there, having been released in December 2013.
Its price is particularly unusual as one Dogecoin is, and generally has been, worth so little as to allow even a retail user to accumulate a large seeming-fortune (at least in Dogecoin terms). A Dogecoin unit has hovered recently near its all-time highs of between 5 and 6 cents but for much of its history has been worth just a fraction of a cent, for years even staying consistently as low as $0.001 to $0.002 per unit. This has also meant it has seen extraordinary price volatility even as its nominal price still seems “low” - if one entered Dogecoin at $0.006 and sold around $0.06 that is an over 100x return rate.
It neither has a fixed max supply nor an inflation rate controlled by either the market nor a central issuing node/organization. Rather, Dogecoin began with an initial max supply of 100 billion Dogecoins that was reached in 2015 whereupon it began a fixed inflation rate of 5.25 billion Dogecoins per year, creating a proportionally decreasing inflation rate as time goes on. Currently there are around 128 billion Dogecoins, meaning an annualized inflation rate of a bit above 4%.
Much of the intention behind its creation was lighthearted and still is. When Dogecoin originated it essentially took the famous “Doge” Internet meme of a Shiba Inu dog and immortalized it in the form of the then-budding cryptocurrency world, creating a plethora of jokes and humor that projected a brighter tone as compared with most cryptocurrencies that stay rooted in a generally serious public image.

Even though Dogecoin originated, and still is, a joke, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have real monetary and technical uses. Dogecoin transfers are quite fast, cheap, and exact (due to the minute value of a Dogecoin). Many large crypto-exchanges support it, such as Kraken and Binance, and it even is available, even if not in wallet and transferable form, on the popular Robinhood stock trading app. Coinbase, while not offering it for sale, still even hosts wallet capabilities for it.

Dogecoin in recent weeks has seen an unusual price surge at a rate that even surpasses that of Bitcoin. I believe this is due to a combination of another surging “cryptocurrency interest” season similar to late 2017/early 2018, and likely to end eventually in a somewhat similar manner, and some statements by Tesla CEO Elon Musk that have driven interest to Dogecoin even though he has stated recently he owns none.

While I’m not certain the current price for Dogecoin is sustainable and also believe that price volatility will still be very much part of this niche cryptocurrency, I particularly like Dogecoin because its financial and technical attributes make it an interesting crypto-currency for actual use in the future. While it may not become the cryptocurrency of an Elon-Musk-run Mars as some advocates say, it nonetheless allows exact, quick, and cheap payments in a way that Bitcoin currently does not. It is ‘fun’ and easy to popularize and access, meaning retail adoption may prove more likely than some of the very technical cryptocurrencies.

Furthermore, its fixed inflation rate means that new Dogecoins will always, at least under the current system, be created and mining still ongoing - this is what allows a cryptocurrency to grow and expand with its user base and resolves, for the most part, a scalability problem that Bitcoin still has not resolved. Dogecoin also is able to control its risk of falling into the altcoin-abyss of forgotten cryptos through its partial piggybacking off of mining the popular Litecoin.

Lastly, even though its volatile, the fact that it still is pegged to itself means it can stand out as a ‘currency’ more than stablecoins that utilize cryptocurrencies' technical attributes without the fiat-to-crypto price exchange.

In short, I like Dogecoin as a real cryptocurrency for potential common and widespread use someday. I can imagine someday in the future paying for a cup of coffee in Dogecoin but doubt I would ever do so with Bitcoin (unless I wanted to pay a $5 transaction fee on a $3 coffee and wait 10 to 20 minutes for it to process). Until Dogecoin sees widespread adoption it likely will continue to see extensive price volatility, but nonetheless I think it’s a worthwhile cryptocurrency to keep an eye on.

Disclosure: I am long DOGE-USD.

Inflation and Influencers: How Investors Can Send Dogecoin to $10

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So much wow. When Billy Markus created Dogecoin (CCC:DOGE-USD) in 2013, he did so as a joke. DOGE’s mining reward system was so ludicrously structured that no one could possibly have taken it seriously; at the start, miners could earn anywhere from zero to 1 billion coins for completing a single block.

Dogecoin Cryptocurrency

Source: Orpheus FX / Shutterstock.com

But Dogecoin holders have had the last laugh. Today, the cryptocurrency is worth almost $10 billion and has one of the most dedicated followings of any tradable security. Lucky investors could have turned a $1,000 initial stake into nearly $1 million.

Core to this success was a 2014 technical change that developers quietly made, although celebrity endorsements helped. At block 145,000 – the coin switched from its random mining reward to a consistent payout; miners now earn just 10,000 DOGE per reward. That move capped today’s inflation at 5.256 billion coins per year and removes the joke that initially made the cryptocurrency unusable.

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Renewed interest in Dogecoin’s development could spark even more changes. If its inflation trajectory changes again, DOGE at $10 might become a reality.

Why Are DOGE Prices Stuck Around 6 Cents?

Cryptocurrencies typically fall into three groups:

Inflationary: a supply that goes up indefinitely (i.e., Dogecoin)

Deflationary: a limited supply (i.e., Bitcoin)

Pegged: a supply that changes to match USD or another underlying asset (i.e., Tether)

Today, Dogecoin lives life as an inflationary coin. Much like fiat currencies, more gets minted every day. And just like its government-backed counterparts, Doge’s upside remains limited because buyers know they can always acquire more later. (For a real-world example, consider that the EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.2 is virtually the same as in 1999). In other words, when your currency adds 4% supply every year, it will eventually find a price equilibrium with other 4% growth currencies.

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Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CCC:BTC-USD) and fellow limited-supply coins can often see their value rise astronomically. Much like Picassos, vintage wines and 1868-collectible stamps, their limited availability means each minted piece becomes more valuable with each passing day.

DOGE Price to $1? Or $10?

Even without inflationary changes, the price could still hit $1. The cryptocurrency has 130 billion coins outstanding; a $1 price-per-coin will still leave it 55% the size of Ethereum (CCC:ETH-USD), the world’s second-largest crypto. And because only the marginal trade matters in asset pricing, even a few major account owners could theoretically send values soaring.

With some luck, the coin might even stay at $1. With renewed interest in the Shiba-Inu-fronted coin, developers have since jumped back into its code repository, proposing crucial usability and speed improvements. Developers have pushed major changes before – DigiByte and Litecoin (CCC:LTC-USD) snippets features prominently in Dogecoin’s source code. More may be on the way.

Inflation will also become a minor issue over time – the outcome of a flat reward divided by a growing capital base. By 2040, Dogecoin’s inflation rate would have dropped to just 2.4%, or roughly the same as U.S. dollars today. By 2060, it would be 1.6%, making it deflationary relative to dollars.

dogecoin supply and inflation

Source: Author Calculations

However, sending Dogecoin to $10 will require an even more significant change: a switch to a deflationary system sooner than 2060.

Dogecoin’s 10,000 Rule

Currently, miners earn 10,000 DOGE per block, which happens about once per minute. That puts a $10 price target firmly out of reach; no matter how many people buy Dogecoin, its ever-growing supply makes price gains an uphill battle. A $10 price means Dogecoin needs to surpass Bitcoin in market capitalization and stay there.

But in open-source cryptocurrencies, no rule is permanent. With enough core contributors voting for change, even projects as large as Ethereum can alter its fundamental building blocks to keep up with newer coins.

Today, Dogecoin finds itself at the same crossroads. Its codebase is rapidly aging, and newer coins like Cardano (CCC:ADA-USD) and Polkadot (CCC:DOT-USD) are nipping at its heels. Even Bitcoin looks vulnerable to third-generation coins that can perform transactions far faster and cheaper.

So far, Dogecoin’s grassroots-based approach has helped the cryptocurrency avoid obsolescence; people buy the coin for fun and profits, not usability. But unless larger stakeholders also step up, these efforts can only go so far.

The Dogecoin Whale

Ordinarily, prominent crypto stakeholders will help fund code and business development. The Cardano Network, for instance, has three official organizations to manage standardization, technology and developer support. Together, they share around billions in funding. Ripple Labs has a similarly large budget for promoting XRP (CCC:XRP-USD).

Meanwhile, DOGE relies on 200 part-time coders and a legion of online fans for support. Many look like core contributor Ross Nicoll – working for free to maintain an ever-growing system. It’s why much of its code gets lifted from other coins: there are simply not enough resources to develop proprietary code. Others are like the thousands of social media followers on Dogecoin; many constantly hound the developers to cap the currency’s supply.

If investors want to send Dogecoin prices to $10, far more is needed than buying the coin and posting tweets. It needs a benefactor to help fund improvements.

Already, the coin has some big-name backers. On Thursday, Elon Musk promised to literally send the coin to the moon on a SpaceX rocket. He could make an even bigger impact by starting a “Dogecoin Foundation” to fund development and promote adoption among startups and enterprises. So far he’s avoided that, blaming the “Dogecoin Whale“. Regular investors can help by contributing, rather than hounding developers.

Dogecoin to $10 is more than a dream – it’s a possibility that’s just around the corner if the community one day bands together.

On the date of publication, Tom Yeung did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.

Tom Yeung, CFA, is a registered investment advisor on a mission to bring simplicity to the world of investing.

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