Ethereum Rallies to $2,300 as Gas Fees Drop

Ethereum Rallies to $2,300 as Gas Fees Drop

Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) – After one of the most difficult years in the oil industry’s history, crude prices have recovered and major producers are finally generating spare cash. Investors really want to get their hands on it, but most are likely to be disappointed.That’s because the pandemic has created a legacy of debt for the world’s biggest international oil companies, many of which borrowed to fund their dividends as prices crashed.For Exxon Mobil Corp. and Total SE, which bore the financial strain of maintaining shareholder payouts last year, any extra cash will go to easing debt. Chevron Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc have said they want to resume buybacks, but not yet. Only BP Plc is dangling the possibility that shareholder returns could improve soon, after a year and a half of flip-flopping over its payout policy.The coming week’s first-quarter results should show a significant improvement in both profit and cash flow after a dire 2020, but probably nothing that will change investors’ disenchantment with the oil majors.“They have limited appeal as long-term investments because they can’t demonstrate that they can deliver cash flow on a sustainable basis and return it on a sustainable basis,” said Christyan Malek, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s head of EMEA oil and gas. “The key is consistency. We haven’t had any.”The first quarter will be an inflection point for the industry, according to JPMorgan. Company data and estimates compiled by Bloomberg show free cash flow – what’s left after operational spending and investment – is set to rebound to $80 billion for the five supermajors this year, compared with about $4 billion in 2020.Shell will be the top of heap with about $22 billion, Exxon will total $19 billion and even lowest-ranked BP will have about $11 billion. That will be enough for each of the five majors to cover their planned 2021 dividends and together have more than $35 billion left over.It’s unclear how much of that could make it into the pockets of shareholders.“Priorities for deployment of Europe’s oil majors’ strong first-quarter free cash flow will vary,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Will Hares. “BP has achieved its debt target and is set to announce resumption of buybacks. Shell has announced a small dividend bump, though is unlikely to resume buybacks given its $65 billion net debt target.”BP’s BuybacksAfter raising its dividend by 2.4% in February 2020, then cutting the payout by half just six months later, BP has come under pressure to prove it can deliver reliable returns to shareholders.The London-based firm’s shares are the worst performing in its peer group over the last 12 months. Even its Chief Executive Officer Bernard Looney has acknowledged that investors are questioning whether BP can pull off its reinvention for the low-carbon age.Earlier this month, BP managed to set itself apart from its peers in a positive way, giving the clearest signal of impending buybacks. The company said it had achieved its target of reducing net debt to $35 billion about a year sooner than expected and will give an update on the timetable for stock repurchases on Tuesday, when it opens Big Oil earnings season.That’s a significant increase in the urgency of improving shareholder returns. Back in August, BP put its goal of returning 60% of surplus cash to investors fifth on the priority list after funding the dividend, reducing net debt, shifting expenditure into low-carbon projects and spending on core oil and gas assets.Debt ReductionBP’s European peers, whose shares have performed better in the past year, aren’t moving so fast.France’s Total, which was the only oil major in the region to maintain its dividend last year, has said that any extra cash that comes from higher oil prices will be used to cut debt. Its next priority will be to increase investment in renewables to about 25% of its overall budget. Buybacks will only come after that.Shell announced a 4% increase in its dividend in October, after cutting the payout by two thirds earlier in the year. It has a target of reducing net debt by $10 billion before it returns any extra money to shareholders. Banks including Citigroup Inc. and HSBC Holdings Plc predict that won’t happen until 2022, since net debt rose in the last quarter of 2020 to $75 billion.Unlike BP and Shell, the North American majors managed to make it through 2020 with their payouts intact, but at a high cost. Exxon’s debt pile surged 40% during the pandemic to $73 billion, prompting Moody’s Investors Service to downgrade the company’s bonds twice in the past 12 months.The Texas-based giant expects to return to profit in the first three months of 2021 after four straight quarterly losses. The company has said it will maintain its $15 billion annual dividend while paying down debt if oil and gas prices remain at current levels. JPMorgan sees Exxon’s free cash flow rebounding to $19.6 billion this year, giving it a sizable surplus with which to reduce borrowings.Of the five supermajors, Chevron has the best balance sheet and “strong prospects” for a share buyback, according to HSBC analyst Gordon Gray. The California-based company said in March that it should generate $25 billion of free cash over and above its dividend through 2025 if Brent crude remains at $60.The oil majors’ focus on pleasing investors and healing their financial wounds comes largely at the expense of investment in their core business.As the pandemic unfolded last year, the companies slashed their spending to the lowest combined level in 15 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. The stranglehold will continue this year, with capital expenditure set to rise only slightly despite oil’s recovery.Chevron and Exxon have both locked in spending plans at radically reduced levels all the way through 2025. Total has marginally raised its capital investment budget for this year, while BP and Shell have put a firm ceiling on expenditure.So while the combination of higher oil prices, rock-bottom spending and asset sales is delivering the surge in cash flow that will help solve the supermajors’ short-term problems, it may be creating a long-term headache. Shell acknowledged earlier this month that it’s not investing enough in new projects to offset the natural decline in production from its existing oil and gas fields.The majors are “slaking the shareholders’ thirst for cash returns,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. In the long term “capex cuts, debt and disposals could do as much if not more harm than good, and none are really sustainable.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

How Ethereum Works: It Seems Like We’re Living in a Futuristic Alternate Universe

How Ethereum Works: It Seems Like We’re Living in a Futuristic Alternate Universe

The world is changing so fast that it’s tough to understand where the crypto revolution is going, but Ethereum will be part of that story.

Photo courtesy of Pixabay

It’s already a mad, mad world; add cryptocurrency, and it seems like we’re living in a futuristic alternate universe. It appears that new crypto technologies are popping up every week, and more people are becoming accustomed to investing money into digital coins. But what many of us don’t understand is that blockchain—the man behind the curtain of crypto—can be used for purposes beyond our current imaginations, the second-most-popular platform being Ethereum. Recently, the ether coin reached an all-time high of $2,200. But before we dive into Ethereum, let’s do a recap on how blockchain works.

Blockchain is revolutionary because it’s a decentralized technology that isn’t backed by a central authority. It’s a type of database that stores information; specifically for Bitcoin, it reserves the comprehensive history of Bitcoin transactions. This coin has been making headlines because of its institutionalization by everyone from Elon Musk and governments to banks and politicians—not to mention its skyrocketing value. Blockchain is difficult to alter, so that’s why it’s used in the digital currency space.

The cryptocurrency revolution is already affecting the way we live, how we view the world and—more fundamentally—the way our economy works. As of now, our economy depends on institutions for transactions. So, if you go to the store and buy something, it’s with cash that’s originated by a) the Federal Reserve or b) a credit card that uses U.S. dollars. And you have to go through a bank, so, at every transaction, there’s a touchpoint between centralized institutions—public or private, whether they’re governments or banks. The thing about cryptocurrency is it doesn’t depend on central players to get business across the finish line.

A lot of the news focuses on Bitcoin, but it’s just a currency. In December 2020, the World Economic Forum released a report titled “Crypto: What Is It Good For?” and they didn’t focus on Bitcoin. There are new emerging players.

Related Bitcoin 101: Could Cryptocurrencies Eventually Replace the Dollar?

The biggest story you’ve never heard of is Ethereum. It’s more advanced than Bitcoin in the sense that it’s customizable and open source. It can be used in such a vast capacity that we don’t know the extent of its possibilities. Ethereum is the new kid on the block.

Ethereum has a decentralized finance (DeFi) system, and it powers its own digital currency: ether (ETH). But according to their website, Ethereum builds upon Bitcoin’s innovation. Ether is the “gas” that “fuels” the network which is a programmable blockchain. Our world’s brightest minds can come up with endless possibilities for this technology; you can even use it for Bitcoin. It also runs thousands of decentralized applications (dapps).

Bank of America recently stated that “Bitcoin is the most talked about cryptocurrency, but Ethereum [the blockchain] has more features, including being more flexible,” according to CoinDesk.

Ethereum is much more flexible than Bitcoin because it’s not just a coin. The platform calls itself a “marketplace of financial services, games and apps that can’t steal your data or censor you.” One example of an Ethereum application is the use of non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Any of your assets can be tokenized, like how Kings of Leon sold their latest album.

Related How Cryptocurrency Could Inspire a New Kind of Financial Literacy

And they extend an open invitation to all of the coders and programmers out there.

“…[E]verything here is open-source and ready for you to extend and improve,” they stated.

So, get ready to learn some new vocabulary and adjust to new technologies in every facet of life. Bitcoin isn’t the height of blockchain technology. NFTs and DeFi aren’t the most advanced applications we will see. The world is changing so fast that it’s tough to understand where the crypto revolution is going, but Ethereum will be part of that story.

David Grasso is the host of the Follow the Profit podcast, where he shares simple ideas for financial success and lessons learned the hard way. He is also the CEO of Bold TV, Inc, a nonprofit media company dedicated to entrepreneurship and cultural empowerment.

Hannah Buczek is the managing editor and journalist for Bold TV. She also reports and edits for GenBiz, a nonprofit media brand focused on promoting financial freedom.

Ethereum Price Prediction: Here’s Why This is A Pivotal Week for ETH

The Ethereum price has bounced back after crashing by more than 20% a week ago. ETH is trading at $2,457, which is just 7% below its all-time high of $2,647. Its market cap has bounced back to more than $284 billion while its 24-hour volume has increased to more than $40 billion.

What happened: Last week, the price of Ethereum and other digital currencies dropped sharply as investors waited for the next major catalyst. That’s after the previous catalyst, the Coinbase direct listing came and went. Also, the currencies declined after the crypto ban by Turkey, a major participant in the industry.

This will be an important week for Ethereum price and other digital currencies. That’s because the Federal Reserve will start its meeting on Tuesday and deliver its decision on Wednesday. This will be a major catalyst because of the fact that the recent rally in digital currencies has been because of low-interest rates by the Fed.

Therefore, with the US vaccination program going on, and with the US publishing strong data, the market will be watching out for Jerome Powell’s statement. In case of a dovish Federal Reserve, we can expect that the ETH price will keep rising. However, in case Powell hints at possible higher rates, we could see a major reversal.

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A hawkish Fed is a possibility. Furthermore, other central banks like the Bank of Canada and Norges Bank have already turned hawkish. And a hawkish Fed is a good thing for the bank because it will be a sign of confidence of the country’s economy.

Ethereum price prediction

The four-hour chart shows that the ETH price has been making a strong comeback lately. This has seen it move from below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level to above the 23.6% retracement level. It has also moved above the 25-day and 15-day exponential moving averages (EMA) while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been rising. Therefore, in my view, the price will keep rising as bulls target the all-time high at $2,647.

There is also a sign of a bearish breakout. Besides, the currency has formed a head and shoulders pattern, which is usually a bearish signal.

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ETH price chart

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