麥可貝瑞：比特幣恐遭央行「障礙」，難撼動全球金融

麥可貝瑞：比特幣恐遭央行「障礙」，難撼動全球金融

電影《大賣空》（Big Short）真實主角，在 2008 年全球金融海嘯爆發前放空不動產抵押證券的知名對沖基金經理人麥可貝瑞（Michael Burry），再次警告比特幣可能遭備感威脅的政府排擠。

Business Insider 3 日報導，貝瑞 2 日已刪除的推文指出，各國央行究竟會將比特幣當作保值工具，抑或設下障礙（handicap）與規範，使之變成類似本票的利基產品？長期而言，這是中心化、強大、暴力且無情的政府最看重的事。

貝瑞 2 日另一條已刪除的推文表示，全球法定貨幣經濟系統，早已選定隊長，並擔負支持隊長的義務（直到隊長換人）。這種系統建立的網路影響力，是否被比特幣等虛幣多頭低估？

值得注意的是，貝瑞 2 月曾說，雖然比特幣的長期展望相當貧乏，但他不會放空，因近期內「任何事情都可能發生」。他並表示，多數比特幣都是在中國、伊朗、俄羅斯等面臨制裁等國家挖到。也就是說，虛幣必須儘快贏得法人機構支持，以免遭政府機關、央行摧毀。

中國內蒙古地區日前已傳出，打算禁止新虛幣挖礦計畫，同時關閉現有挖礦設施，以降低能源消耗量。

CNBC 2 日報導，比特幣是基於去中心化的網路，並不是由央行等單一實體發行。稱為區塊鏈的公開帳簿，記錄轉帳交易必須由所有礦工「確認」。這些礦工以專門挖礦電腦解答繁複數學謎題，從而審核比特幣轉帳交易。礦工之後可獲得比特幣為獎勵。

不過挖礦電腦耗電量極高。劍橋大學 Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index 顯示，挖掘比特幣每年得消耗 128.84TWh 電力，比烏克蘭、阿根廷等國家總電量還多。中國挖取的比特幣佔全球 65%，內蒙因電力便宜，佔比就達 8%。相較之下，美國僅占全球 7.2% 挖礦量。

內蒙因並未達成中央政府 2019 年設立的能源使用目標，當地發改委列出的省電方案中，即包括 2021 年 4 月底前關閉現有虛幣挖礦設施，不再核准新挖礦所。

（本文由 MoneyDJ新聞 授權轉載；首圖來源：Unsplash）

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(Bloomberg) – Two of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds say investors should expect much lower returns going forward in part because the typical balanced portfolio of 60/40 stocks and bonds no longer works as well in the current rate environment.Singapore’s GIC Pte and Australia’s Future Fund said global investors have relied on the bond market to simultaneously juice returns for decades, while adding a buffer to their portfolio against equity market risks. Those days are gone with yields largely rising.“Bonds have been in retrospect this gift,” with a 40-year rally that has boosted all portfolios, said Sue Brake, chief investment officer of Australia’s A$218.3 billion ($168.4 billion) fund. “But that’s over,” she added, saying “replacing it is impossible – I don’t think there’s any one asset class that could replace it.”Thanks to declining returns from bonds, the model 60/40 portfolio may eke out real returns – after inflation – of just 1%-2% a year over the next decade, said Lim Chow Kiat, chief executive officer of GIC. That compares with gains of 6%-8% over the past 30 to 40 years, he said.“So that’s not particularly exciting,” Lim said at the Investment Management Association of Singapore-Bloomberg conference on Tuesday.Brake said funds like hers will have to work harder to diversify their portfolios to seek out returns. She cited six major ways in which markets have changed with the pandemic, including increased regulatory intervention, higher inflation risks, additional drivers of performance and more “fragile” markets.Funds have “cried wolf” for over a decade in warning of falling returns, Brake said, only to see continued gains. Nevertheless investors should expect lower returns ahead, she said. Global bonds have gained 382% since 1991, or about 5.4% a year, based on the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index.“We’re repeating the same message that going forward the returns are going to be much harder,” said Brake, whose fund has returned 9.2% a year over the past decade. “You can’t hide in the corner and not invest any more because we have to get our returns and I don’t think it’s the kind of environment where we should be doing that.”Norway’s $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund has already made the shift, winning approval to adjust its equity-bond mix to 70/30 in 2017. At the end of last year, it held about 73% in equities, and 25% in bonds.Lim also cautioned about too much government stimulus and its effect on inflation.“As a long-term investor, we have some concerns about the use of stimulus,” he said. “We tend to like the use of capital and money that goes toward building long-term growth, long-term structural factors, rather than using the money to spend.”Investors will also have to deal with geopolitical risks, said Lim, whose fund has posted a real return of 2.7% annualized over the past 20 years.“This is a chronic issue,” said Lim. “It is going to stay with us for a long time and we are likely to have occasional flare-ups, just like any chronic disease. You have to manage it properly.”(Updates with Norway fund shift in ninth paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.