特斯拉猛打價格戰、賣完車後持續賺錢！傳統車廠的獲利思維還能撐多久？｜數位時代 BusinessNext

特斯拉猛打價格戰、賣完車後持續賺錢！傳統車廠的獲利思維還能撐多久？｜數位時代 BusinessNext

讓車變成另一種持續性盈利的資產

8月2日，美國《財富》雜誌發布了世界500強企業排行榜。特斯拉根據公開資料顯示，特斯拉2020年全年營收315.36億美元，超出市場預期的311.05億美元；較2019年的245.78億美元增長28%。

而在三天前，7月30日，特斯拉官方微博發布消息，即日起，特斯拉Model 3標準續航升級版的價格下調1.5萬人民幣，調整後的價格為23.59萬元人民幣（補貼後起售價）。

熟悉的降價策略

自從特斯拉建上海工廠成立後，不到兩年的時間，Model 3已歷經四輪降價。其中，2020年1月直接將Model 3的起售價拉至30萬人民幣以內，滿足中國國內的補貼要求。

中國的國信證券曾分析，未來由中國全面製造後，中國國內產製的Model 3售價將可能下降至20.46萬人民幣。根據特斯拉官方消息，今年年初，Model 3中國製造率約30%，根據計劃，到今年年底將會達到100%。

實際上，自從Model系列車型由中國進行製造後，特斯拉就不斷用降價的手段提升產品的性價比和產銷量，按照特斯拉的說法，價格調整反映了成本波動的實際情況。

風投研究公司Loup Ventures分析師Gene Munster表示，在中國製造一輛電動車的成本是特斯拉平均成本的三分之一，當前Model 3標準續行版的物料成本價僅為13萬人民幣，再加上6萬人民幣的結構成本，Model3的總成本僅為19萬人民幣左右，這意味著國產特斯拉仍有下調空間。他隨後預測：「特斯拉未來十年在中國的價格都將比世界其他地區低。」

對於此次降價，乘聯會秘書長崔東樹分析認為，中國製Model 3的降價加速了其顛覆燃油車的進程。「只有加速降低成本，才能實現電動化轉型，越接近主力消費群體，新能源車的活力越強。」也有不同觀點認為，Model 3進一步降價是由於此前質量問題引發的負面輿論影響到了特斯拉銷量。但無論如何，在面對同等定位車型的時候，特斯拉的價格優勢將進一步放大。別忘了，7月8日特斯拉將Model Y的價格已經拉入到了30萬人民幣以內。

目前幾乎所有的純電新能源整車企業為了與特斯拉抗衡，甚至是在銷量上顛覆特斯拉，不管是配置、性能、還是價格層面，幾乎無一例外的下足了功夫，但即便是這樣，現階段仍無法與特斯拉在銷量上達到平衡。

賣車賺錢和賣了車賺錢

2006年8月，也就是在特斯拉創立後剛滿3年時，伊隆·馬斯克就提出了路線圖「Master Plan」，也就是 「三步走」 戰略：第一步，公司打造一台昂貴、小眾的跑車（Roadster）；第二步，公司用賺到的錢，打造一台更便宜、銷量中等的車（Model S、Model X）；第三步，公司用賺到的錢，打造一台更具經濟性的暢銷車型（Model 3、Model Y）。

到目前，特斯拉Roadster、Model S、Model X、Model 3、Model Y五款車型已相繼上市，基本上算是完成了「三步走」戰略目標。在大部分人眼裡，特斯拉僅僅是一輛智能電動汽車。但在馬斯克眼裡，特斯拉其實是更接近於網路科技產品的汽車。

網路科技產品的行銷方式，是透過不斷降低硬體成本，提高出貨量，基於巨大的用戶基數，打造用戶生態，透過軟體和服務賺錢。比如，馬斯克經常diss的蘋果手機，已經將重心轉移到軟體服務上。

在2020年的第三季財報會議上，馬斯克就提到「要把特斯拉價格降到人們可以買得起的程度。」當越來越多的人用上特斯拉，能給特斯拉帶來更多的軟體訂閱收益。而軟體的特點，就是一旦實現了功能，複製成本基本是零。也就是說，同樣的成本投入，軟體的利潤空間取決於用戶數量。

當傳統主機廠還停留在賣車賺錢的思維中，特斯拉已經在建構通過一款廉價車佔領市場，進而用服務收費的網路模式上越走越遠了。換句話說，特斯拉一定程度上放棄傳統的單車利潤，讓車變成另一種持續性盈利的資產。

隨著FSD套件的功能不斷增加，與汽車頻頻降價相反。特斯拉在過去幾年中多次對FSD進行提價，最近一次提價是在去年10月29日。當日，該套件的價格上漲2000美元到了1萬美元。今年7月，特斯拉發布了FSD Beta V9的訂閱服務，每月租金為199美元。

Gene Munster認為，十年之後，FSD每年帶來的營業利潤將超過1000億美元，光是這項服務的市場價值就將達到8500億美元，超過整個特斯拉公司現在6000多億美元的市值。而對在這之前未購買FSD的潛在用戶來說，這次購買方式的調整將用戶成本從最初的一次性付款1萬美元轉變為每月199美元訂閱，「是特斯拉提高利潤率的長期道路上的重要一步，將加強該公司的運營模式。要想讓主流科技投資者認可特斯拉是一家真正的科技公司，提高盈利能力至關重要。」

同時他預測，到2032年前，超過8成的特斯拉車主都將會配備FSD功能，該部分的營業利潤率將增加到64%，利潤也會從現在的6億美元突破到1020億美元，是豐田2020年全年純利潤的5倍。

因此，特斯拉不斷的降低價格，目標是為了賣出更多的車，更快的佔領市場，更多的讓用戶訂閱或者購買FSD。同時也可以為特斯拉提供更多的測試數據，用於將來進一步完善FSD完全自動駕駛系統。

汽車只是特斯拉承載FSD的終端，FSD才是特斯拉成為一家顛覆型公司的核心。

特斯拉下一步會怎麼走

7月27日，特斯拉發布了一份史上最佳季度財報，單季營收高達120億美元，淨利潤上漲10倍達到11.4億美元，也創下首次季度收入邁進10億美元大關的記錄。另一方面，特斯拉的成交量也在第二季度較前期上漲了14.4%，共成交了201,304輛新車。其中，Model 3以及Model Y的佔比超過99%。

面對這份成績單，馬斯克任性了一把——「這是我最後一次參加特斯拉財報電話會議，除非有十分重要的事情要報告。」理論上，特斯拉如果覺得有必要，未來將大概率繼續用降價策略提升汽車銷售量和市佔率。

目前，特斯拉憑藉Model 3和Model Y兩款車型，打入了20~40萬元的車用市場，而10~20萬元的車用市場至今尚未涉獵，這一價格區間的市場份額在2020年佔比超過了50%。

KOL爆料

TESMANIAN網站在7月31日發布消息，售價大約2.5萬美元（約合16萬元人民幣）的特斯拉新一款Model系列純電動車已經有了原型，並將於2021年底在上海超級工廠開始試生產。中國知名汽車部落客「不是鄭小康」也印證了這一傳聞，「不是煙霧彈，只是沒公開。」

一旦特斯拉正式發布售價約16萬人民幣的新款Model系列純電動車型，特斯拉與其他新能源主機廠商之間的競爭，以及特斯拉與傳統燃油車企之間的競爭，將變得更加激烈，更加殘酷。

反過來說，這也正是人們預期的引入特斯拉中國製造化後會造成的「鯰魚效應」，攪動了更大意義上的池水，某種程度上既刺激了整個中國汽車製造業技術創新步伐，又加速燃油車市場的替代，實現新能源汽車領域的彎道超車。

文章授權轉載自：36Kr

責任編輯：傅珮晴、錢玉紘

Gold price near 4-month low. Should you buy?

Gold price at Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) hit its 4-month low after sliding below ₹46,000 per 10 gm levels. At MCX, gold futures went down near 1.3 per cent in the last three trade sessions while silver price slipped more than 1.5 per cent in this period. According to commodity experts, this slide in yellow metal price is due to the strong US Dollar and US job data. However, they said that gold price in the international market has strong support at $1680 per ounce while at MCX, ₹44,700 to ₹45,300 per 10 gm is a good accumulation zone. In long-term perspective, gold price is positive and one should maintain ‘buy on dips’ strategy till gold price sustains above ₹44,700 per 10 gm at MCX.

Highlighting the triggers that will yet again fuel the gold price rally; Sugandha Sachdeva, Vice President — Commodity & Currency Research at Religare Broking Ltd said, “Rising cases of Covid-19, especially the Delta variant, in China and the US have stoked fears about derailing the global economic revival. Apart from this, due to the high commodity prices, global inflation concerns are persisting and equity investors may soon start to feel the valuation stretch as global indices are trading close to record highs. This may entice investors to switch to gold for portfolio diversification and as a hedge against inflation.”

On her suggestion to the gold investors; Sugandha Sachdeva of Religare Broking said, “In the short term, there can be some more decline in gold as an overhang of strong labour market recovery in the US and amid concerns that the US Fed will start paring back its pandemic-era stimulus sooner than expected, which has buoyed the greenback. Nevertheless, the outlook for gold in the long-term remains positive. The level of $1680 per ounce in international market is a sacrosanct cushion area for gold and is holding well for the past six months. At MCX, ₹44,700 to ₹45,300 per 10 gm is a good accumulation zone for long-term investors. One should start buying as and when the yellow metal comes in this range as the precious bullion metal is expected to reverse course after this time-wise and price-wise correction in coming months.”

Highlighting the reason for sharp correction in gold price; Anuj Gupta, Vice President — Commodity & Currency Trade at IIFL Securities said, “We have seen sharp correction in gold price due to strength in US Dollar and robust US economic data. In fact, US Dollar is hovering on 4-month high levels; however, gold price is hovering at 4-month low levels. In short-term perspective, gold may trade with negative bias, however increasing delta variant may curb sharp correction in Gold prices. Long-term trend still looks positive for the yellow metal and investors are advised to maintain buy on dips strategy till gold is above $1680 per ounce in international market.”

On his suggestion to gold investors in current market scenario; Anuj Gupta of IIFL Securities said, “Gold price has strong support at $1680 per ounce levels in the international markets while at MCX, it has strong support at ₹45,300. So, one can continue buying till the precious metal is above this mark. In next one week to two week, gold price is expected to remain range-bound between ₹45,300 to ₹46,700 per 10 gm at MCX. So, gold price coming closer to ₹45,300 should be seen as an opportunity to buy for long-term maintaining stop loss below ₹44,700. The immediate target for the yellow metal would be ₹46,700 while in next two to three months, MCX gold price may go up to ₹48,500 to ₹49,000 per 10 gm levels.

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Experts: Demand boost possible despite price rise

By LI XIANG and ZHOU LANXU | China Daily | Updated: 2021-08-11 09:16

A shopper buys vegetables at a supermarket in Handan, Hebei province. HAO QUNYING/FOR CHINA DAILY

The elevated prices of industrial goods in China are unlikely to have a major effect like driving up consumer prices as the country’s overall inflationary pressure is largely controllable, offering some policy leeway for the government to further boost domestic demand, economists said on Tuesday.

Limited transmission from producer prices to consumer prices would mean some smaller companies will have to endure a difficult time as their profits may be squeezed; so, more supportive policies are needed to ensure their survival, they said.

The National Bureau of Statistics' July inflation data, which were released on Monday, showed the country’s consumer price inflation remains moderate while producer prices rose faster than expected.

China’s consumer price index grew by 1 percent year-on-year last month, down from 1.1 percent in June, according to the NBS.

The country’s producer price index, which gauges factory-gate prices, rose by 9 percent year-on-year, up from 8.8 percent in June and the same as May’s 9 percent, the highest level in the year.

The slower growth of the CPI in July was mainly due to the decline of food prices while the rapid rise of the PPI was a result of the rebound in raw material prices, economists said.

Wen Bin, chief researcher at China Minsheng Bank, said the widened gap between the rises in consumer prices and producer prices means that there has not been a notable price transmission effect from industries to consumers and China’s inflation pressure will remain moderate for the remainder of the year.

“We expect PPI inflation to moderate to 8.6 percent year-on-year in August on stabilization of raw material prices, and to stay above 8 percent in the subsequent months before falling to around 7 percent toward the year-end,” said Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura Securities, in a research note.

While PPI inflation’s effect on nonfood CPI inflation could become more visible in the coming quarters, domestic inflationary pressure is largely controllable and it is unlikely that policymakers in Beijing will overreact to the stronger-than-expected July inflation data, Lu said.

While the rapid rise of prices of industrial goods is unlikely to trigger an overall inflation in China, it will put some smaller companies into a more difficult position as they have limited bargaining power and will see their profits squeezed, said Guan Qingyou, chief economist at the Rushi Financial Research Institute.

“Small and medium-sized enterprises will face greater pressure and they are in urgent need of policy support,” he said.

Zhao Shenglan, legal representative of Xunxian Shengshi Plastic &Pack Belt Products Factory, a private manufacturer based in Hebi, Henan province, said the company has operated at a low profit margin as rising raw material prices have inflated costs while product prices could not go up.

Analysts said the moderate inflation pressure will give policymakers more policy leeway to use easing measures to stabilize growth as the Chinese economy could face greater headwinds in the coming quarters. Many of them see an increasing need to cut interest rates to effectively boost domestic demand and reduce corporate financing costs.

While the Chinese central bank has emphasized that it has not changed its prudent monetary stance, economists expect that more accommodative measures could be rolled out to mitigate growth pressure in the second half of the year and to ease liquidity pressure in the financial system.