Crypto trades buzzing despite ban fears

Crypto trades buzzing despite ban fears

According to WazirX, the largest crypto exchange in India, it took 11 days to hit the billion-dollar mark in trading value in February, when compared with 25-30 days in January. The company expects to hit about 2.5X the $1.84 billion total trading value hit in January this month.

“Crypto is a global phenomenon. The moment a Tesla spends $1.5 billion, your wealth in India has increased. Most of your investments are very local, but in crypto, anyone anywhere in the world can affect your wealth. People in India have been joining based on all of this positive news that’s been coming," said Nischal Shetty, founder of WazirX.

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“The only time we saw some negativity was on the day the bill was posted on Parliament’s website. That was because of panic selling, which happened for a couple of days. The activities and prices returned to normal in the next two days," he added.

The cryptocurrency industry has been nervous since a draft law banning crypto was listed on the agenda in Parliament late last month. The bill aims to “prohibit all private cryptocurrencies in India" and lay the framework for a digital rupee issued and controlled by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). While the definition of private cryptocurrencies in the bill isn’t clear, many expect Bitcoin and other such assets to be declared illegal.

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CoinDCX, another Indian crypto exchange, said there was no drop in trading volumes in February. “On the contrary, due to recent developments in the international market, we have seen interest continue to rise," said Neeraj Khandelwal, co-founder of CoinDCX. “Irrespective of the government’s decision, investors’ funds will be safe as Bitgo is CoinDCX’s custodian," he added.

On 8 February, electric carmaker Tesla said it invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin. The company also said it expects to start accepting payments in Bitcoin, which led to a 10% jump in the price of the cryptocurrency. Two days later, global payments firm Mastercard also announced it would start supporting cryptocurrencies on its network from this year. Stakeholders said such developments had a much bigger impact on crypto trading in India than reports of the ban.

Crypto exchanges on 8 February launched a campaign to convince the government to rethink the plan. A platform called Indiawantsbitcoin.org was formed that allows anyone to send emails to their respective members of Parliament (MP), showing support for crypto in India. Industry estimates say trading volumes in India grew sixfold in 2020.

Mint reported on 12 February that the proposed cryptocurrency bill may allow holders of such assets to exit before its anticipated ban, but may put a heavy penalty on its conversion to a legal asset.

The form and manner of declaration and how existing holders of cryptocurrency should dispose it of will be prescribed either in the law or through the rules to be notified later, Mint reported, citing a finance ministry official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill, 2021, which may be tabled in the ongoing budget session, is intended to “create a facilitative framework for the creation of the official digital currency to be issued by RBI. The bill also seeks to prohibit all private cryptocurrencies. However, it allows for certain exceptions to promote the underlying technology of cryptocurrency and its uses," the Lok Sabha secretariat said in a bulletin.

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Bitcoin surpasses $50,000 for first time ever as major companies jump into crypto

Bitcoin hit a record high of more than $50,000 on Tuesday, continuing its blistering rally as major companies appear to be warming to cryptocurrencies.

The world’s largest digital currency by market valuable rose more than 3 percent to an all-time high of $50,389 just after 7:30 a.m. ET, according to data from Coin Metrics.

Bitcoin has had a boost from news of large firms like Tesla, Mastercard and BNY Mellon warming to cryptocurrencies. Tesla last revealed it had bought $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin and plans to accept the digital coin as payment for its products, while Mastercard said it would open up its network to some digital currencies. PayPal and BNY Mellon have also made big moves to support crypto.

Tesla’s use of corporate cash to buy bitcoin sparked speculation over whether other major companies would follow suit. Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi last week told CNBC that the company had discussed but “quickly dismissed” the idea of buying bitcoin. The firm is however considering whether to accept cryptocurrencies as payment.

These developments have led some crypto investors to believe the latest bull run is different to rallies past. Bitcoin skyrocketed to nearly $20,000 in late 2017 before losing more than 80 percent of its value the following year. Bitcoin believers say that, whereas the 2017 bubble was driven by retail speculation, the current cycle is being fueled by demand from institutional investors.

“I think bitcoin is a much more stable asset class today than it was three years ago,” Michael Saylor, CEO of enterprise software firm MicroStrategy, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” program on Tuesday. “It used to be dominated by leveraged retail traders … on international markets with a lot of leverage.”

MicroStrategy and Jack Dorsey’s fintech firm Square hit the headlines last year after taking the unusual strategy of using corporate cash to purchase bitcoin.

“I think that starting in March of 2020, you saw institutions start to arrive and I think in 2021 you’re gonna see that trend continue,” Saylor added. “There’re enthusiasts for bitcoin as a medium of exchange … but I personally believe that the compelling use case is a store of value.”

MicroStrategy has seen its share price climb more than sevenfold since it first bought bitcoin in August. The company announced Tuesday that it would offer $600 million in convertible bonds to buy more bitcoin. There has been speculation that MicroStrategy offered a blueprint for Tesla’s bitcoin purchase after an exchange between Saylor and Elon Musk on Twitter about making “large transactions” with the cryptocurrency.

Still, skeptics see bitcoin as a speculative asset and worry it may be one of the biggest market bubbles in history. Some economists and investors say bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, while others view bitcoin as the most extreme bubble in financial markets.

Market Wrap: Crypto Market Cap Breaks $1.5T as Buyers Show Up for the Dip

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President Joe Biden’s revocation of the March 2019 permit enabling the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline will likely result in more crude-by-rail volumes, according to industry observers. But how much volumes will increase could largely depend on the price that heavy crude oil can fetch in the global market. “The cancellation of the Keystone pipeline project was inevitable once the government changed. Despite its merits or drawbacks, it is now a deflated political football,” said Barry Prentice, University of Manitoba supply chain management professor and former director of the Transport Institute there. “This means that more crude will have to move by rail. The huge investments in the oil sands will not be abandoned, and the oil has to go somewhere.” But crude-by-rail “has been problematic because with the low price for oil, and the relatively higher price for rail transport, nothing looks very appealing. The problem is not oil supply, it is the reduced demand during the pandemic. Once we come out of this period, demand will return, and $100-per-barrel oil will, too,” Prentice said. Indeed, the oil markets serve as one highly visible factor determining how much crude gets produced and shipped. For the production and transport of heavy crude oil from western Canada and the U.S. to be profitable, the pricing spread between a heavy crude product such as Western Canadian Select (WCS) and a light, sweet crude such as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) needs to be favorable. WCS crude is typically priced at a discount against WTI crude because of its lower quality and its greater distance from the U.S Gulf Coast refineries. The COVID-19 pandemic was among the factors that contributed to WTI crude oil prices' tailspin in 2020. Why the interest in crude oil production and transport? The oil market isn’t the only factor that dictates crude oil production and its subsequent transport. Another is the vast oil reserves and the amount of investment already directed into crude oil production, as well as crude oil’s export prospects. According to the government of Alberta, the province’s oil sands represent the third-largest oil reserves in the world, following Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. Its reserves equal about 165.4 billion barrels, and capital investments to the upstream sector have equaled as much as $28.3 billion in 2016 and $26.5 billion in 2017. Furthermore, according to Natural Resources Canada, 98% of Canada’s crude oil exports in 2019 went to the U.S. Those investments and vast oil reserves have also resulted in significant investments in other areas of the energy sector, including investments in pipelines. The pipelines bring Canadian heavy crude south to U.S. refineries because American refineries were built and optimized to mostly handle heavier crude oil, according to Rob Benedict, senior director of petrochemicals, transportation and infrastructure for the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers Association. Crude oil pipelines from Canada to the U.S. have been viewed as an efficient way to transport large amounts of Canadian heavy crude oil to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries. TC Energy’s 1,210-mile Keystone XL pipeline would have had a capacity of 830,000 barrels per day with crude oil originating from Hardisty, Alberta, and heading to Steele City, Nebraska, where it would then be shipped to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries. Had construction continued, the pipeline would have entered service in 2023. But TC Energy abandoned the project after Biden revoked an existing presidential permit for the pipeline in January. “TC Energy will review the decision, assess its implications, and consider its options. However, as a result of the expected revocation of the Presidential Permit, advancement of the project will be suspended.The company will cease capitalizing costs, including interest during construction, effective January 20, 2021, being the date of the decision, and will evaluate the carrying value of its investment in the pipeline, net of project recoveries,” TC Energy said in a release last month. The Keystone XL pipeline “is an essential piece that would have allowed Canada and the U.S. to continue the very good relationship they have with transporting energy products across the border,” Benedict said. However, suspending pipeline construction doesn’t necessarily translate into a one-for-one increase in crude-by-rail volumes, according to Benedict. “The gist of the story is, it’s going to have some impact on crude-by-rail. It’s not going to shift all 830,000 barrels per day onto the rails, but any additional amount is potentially going to have some impact,” Benedict said. Several factors will influence how much crude moves by rail. In addition to the WCS/WTI price spread, the railways' capacity to handle crude-by-rail is crucial. Not only are there speed restrictions for crude trains and possible social ramifications, there also capacity issues. The Canadian railways have reported record grain volumes over the past several months, and crude volumes must compete with grain, as well as other commodities, for the same rail track. There are also other pipelines between Canada and the U.S. that could take some of the volumes that would have been handled by the Keystone XL pipeline, Benedict said. Those include Endbridge’s (NYSE: ENB) Line 3 pipeline, which runs from Canada to Wisconsin; Endbridge’s Line 5 pipeline, which runs under the Strait of Mackinac and Lake Michigan to the Michigan Peninsula; and the Trans Mountain pipeline that’s under development in Canada. It would run from Alberta to the Canadian West Coast and then potentially south to U.S. refineries. And one other factor that could influence crude-by-rail is how much crude oil volumes go into storage, Benedict said. “It’s not just a simple question of, does one pipeline being shut down ship all to rail? It’s complex because you have to consider all the different nodes of the supply chain, including storage that would come into play,” Benedict said. The Canadian railways' views on crude-by-rail For their part, Canadian Pacific (NYSE: CP) and CN (NYSE: CNI) have both said they expect to ship more crude volumes, but neither has indicated just how much volumes will grow. CP said during its fourth-quarter earnings call on Jan. 27 that it has been seeing increased activity as price spreads have become favorable. The railway also expects to begin moving crude volumes from a diluent recovery unit (DRU) near Hardisty, Alberta. US Development Group and Gibson Energy had agreed to construct and operate the DRU in December 2019. As part of that agreement, ConocoPhillips Canada will process the inlet bitumen blend from the DRU and ship it via CP and Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU) to the U.S. Gulf Coast. “These DRU volumes will provide a safer pipeline-competitive option for shippers and will help to stabilize our crude business into the future,” CP Chief Marketing Officer John Brooks said during the earnings call. CP President and CEO Keith Creel also said he sees U.S. actions on the Keystone pipeline as benefiting crude-by-rail and the DRU volumes. The actions “bode for more strength and more potential demand for crude. We think it creates more support for scaling up and expansion of the DRU. So, we’re bullish on that opportunity,” Creel said. He continued, “We still see the short-term, not long-term … pipeline capacity [eventually] catch up [but] we just think there is a longer tail on it right now. So, we think there’s going to be a space for some potential upside in both spaces.” Meanwhile, in a Jan. 27 interview with Bloomberg, CN President and CEO JJ Ruest called crude-by-rail a “question mark” in terms of what energy outlook the railway is seeing for 2021. Ruest said low oil prices, decreased travel and the Keystone pipeline cancellation are among the factors influencing CN’s energy outlook. However, crude-by-rail could be a “slight positive bump on the rail industry,” Bloomberg quoted Ruest as saying. CP and CN declined to comment further to FreightWaves about crude-by-rail, and CN directed FreightWaves to the Bloomberg article. Subscribe to FreightWaves' e-newsletters and get the latest insights on freight right in your inbox. Click here for more FreightWaves articles by Joanna Marsh. Related articles: Social risk trumps financial risk for Canadian crude-by-rail Transport Canada issues new speed restrictions for trains hauling dangerous goods Construction of Alberta crude unit expected to start in April Commentary: Railroad tank cars take a hit See more from BenzingaClick here for options trades from BenzingaForward Air Doubles Down Amid Heightened Interest From ActivistsDrilling Deep: Reviewing Q4 Earnings; How Did Werner Do So Well?© 2021 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.