Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2021 earnings preview: Here’s what experts are expecting
Tesla (TSLA) is set to announce its second-quarter 2021 financial results today, July 26, after the markets close. As usual, a conference call and Q&A with Tesla’s management is scheduled after the results.
We’ll take a look below at what both the street and retail investors are expecting for the quarterly results.
Tesla Q2 2021 deliveries
As usual, Tesla’s vehicle deliveries drive most of its earnings results, since vehicle sales represent the automaker’s main revenue stream at the moment.
Tesla already released its Q2 2021 numbers confirming that it delivered just over 200,000 cars and produced more than 206,000 vehicles between April and June 2021.
That’s a new quarterly record – 8% higher deliveries quarter-over-quarter, which is significant considering the prior quarter was also Tesla’s last delivery record.
Year-over-year, the growth is much more significant at 121%, but we also need to account for the impact of the pandemic around this time last year.
Delivery and production numbers are always slightly adjusted during earning results.
Tesla Q1 2021 revenue
Again, for revenue, analysts generally have a pretty good idea of what to expect thanks to the delivery numbers.
The Wall Street consensus for this quarter is $11.532 billion, and Estimize, the financial estimate crowdsourcing website, predicts a slightly higher revenue of $11.615 billion.
That’s roughly $1 billion more than Tesla reported last quarter and more than double the revenue of Q2 last year.
The predictions for Tesla’s revenue over the past two years: Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Street consensus are in gray, actual results are in green:
Tesla Q1 2021 earnings
Tesla always attempts to be marginally profitable every quarter as it invests most of its money into growth, and it has been successful doing so over almost the last two years now.
For Q2 2021, the Wall Street consensus is a gain of $0.94 per share, while Estimize’s prediction is slightly higher with a profit of $1.01 per share.
Both predictions are a little more optimistic than last quarter’s, which Tesla managed to beat by a slight margin.
Earnings per share over the last two years: Estimize predictions in blue, Wall Street consensus in gray, actual results in green:
Other expectations for the TSLA shareholder’s letter and analyst call
For investors, the focus is on growth, and right now, for Tesla, that means adding production capacity and securing battery supply.
I think investors are going to want more updates on Gigafactory Berlin and Gigafactory Texas.
Both factories are supposed to be producing vehicles by the end of the year, and a status update would be appreciated when we are just months away from that goal.
An update on Tesla’s 4680 battery cell production is also critical since Tesla plans to use those cells, and its new structural battery pack technology for the new vehicles to be produced at those plants.
CEO Elon Musk also recently confirmed that Tesla plans to open up the Supercharger network to other automakers by the end of the year.
I think investors would appreciate more details on how the company plans to roll that out since it will have a big effect on the Tesla ownership experience, and it’s also going to be a new revenue stream.
There are also the usual updates to programs like Full Self-Driving, but Musk has been often just updating people on that via Twitter.
We recently reported that Tesla Semi is nearing production in Nevada and an official update from Tesla on that front would be appreciated.
The same goes for Tesla Cybertruck. The automaker’s official timeline for the electric pickup truck is still “end of 2021,” but that’s looking less likely by the day, and an update on the production plan would give us a better idea.
On the Tesla Energy front, Electrek exclusively reported on Tesla’s new 420-watt solar panel and selling more hardware to third-party installers. It would be interesting for Tesla to discuss those plans since they haven’t been made public yet.
What else are you looking for during Tesla’s earnings? Let us know in the comments section below, and join us later today for an extensive coverage of the earnings.
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Tesla (TSLA) Stock Price and Forecast: Tesla earnings preview and why is the stock down?
Tesla releases results after the closing bell today, Monday, July 26.
TSLA has been largely trading rangebound along with the 200-day moving average.
Results to June should at least give some direction to the stock.
Update: Tesla is making an early break higher ahead of the results being published after the close on Monday. The EV leader is up 2.5% at $659 at the time of writing with just over an hour gone from the open. An impressive gain but still nothing to get too excited about as a strong trend has yet to form. However short-term traders will be pleased to see TSLA stock retake the 9 and 21-day moving averages. Next target $700 and then $715.
Tesla has been holding steady around the 200-day moving average since the middle of June when the strong uptrend broke down. The move through $635 and $667 key resistance levels had been accurately called here at FXStreet, and the volume profile contributed to some strong moves and strong profits for those following the break. As we had also identified, the area from $690 to 715 was always likely to see Tesla stock get stuck in traffic (easy pun) as there was a lot of volume here. $715 was the next big resistance and the failure to break through here and even the psychological $700 level has seen largely directionless sideways trading. The 9 and 21-day moving averages show us this clearly with both flatlining. Hopefully, the results after the close today will at least give us a trend to follow for the next opportunities.
Tesla key statistics
Market Cap $630 billion Price/Earnings 651 Price/Sales 22 Price/Book 28 Enterprise Value $753 billion Gross Margin 23% Net Margin 3% Average Wall Street Rating and Price Target Hold, $671
Tesla stock forecast
Making a strong forecast before results is a fool’s game, but instead traders can focus on the key levels and work out a trading plan at these levels. Presently, $715 and $591 are the big volume-related levels to look at. A break above or below either sees the potential for the move to accelerate due to the volume profile chart seriously thinning out. Even if Tesla breaks the 200-day moving average, there is plenty of volume below to support the price. It is not too significant despite what many in the mainstream media will say. Yes, the 200-day is a key level, but not in this case. Look back to May and June, Tesla was yoyo-ing through the 200-day moving average constantly. It was not until it broke $635 that a trend was formed and things got interesting.
Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to come in at $0.96 on revenue of $11.2 billion. There will be a conference call at 1730EST/2230GMT. Details and a link to the live stream conference call are here.
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 Earnings: What to Expect
The volatility in Tesla (TSLA) shares can sometimes be both nerve-wracking and exhilarating, depending on what side of the fence you’re on…or the lane you’re driving in. The stock has fallen as much as 40% since reaching a 52-week high of $900 to a low of $539 on March 5. However, since that low, the stock has risen as much as 46%.
That rate of volatility is par for the course for Tesla shares. And while the stock added 4% over the past thirty days, it still has tons of ground to make up, given that it is down 8% year to date, compared to the 16% rise in the S&P 500 index. As to which direction the stock will go next? We will get that answer when the luxury electric car manufacturer reports second quarter fiscal 2021 earnings results after the closing bell Monday.
The year-to-date underperformance in Tesla stock is even more notable when compared to the performance in Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) which have gained 58% and 33% year to date, respectively. The stock hasn’t moved even as the company delivered 201,250 vehicles in Q2, which rose from the 90,650 deliveries in year ago quarter and the 184,800 vehicles delivered in the first quarter. The better-than-expected sequential increase in deliveries was aided by strong sales of the Model 3 and Model Y, which offset weakness in Model S and Model X.
Meanwhile, Tesla has reportedly gone on a hiring spree in anticipation of higher demand. This increase in hiring has sparked optimism that the company is likely to boost its full-year delivery guidance. After deliveries reached 500,000 vehicles in 2020, Tesla is expected to grow vehicle deliveries between 50% to 70% in 2021. Investors are also expecting meaningful signs of improvement, particularly with regards to Q2 profit margins.
In the three months that ended June, Wall Street expects Tesla to earn 96 cents per share on revenue of $11.21 billion. This compares to the year-ago quarter when earnings came to 44 cents per share on revenue of $6.04 billion. For the full year, ending in December, earnings are expected to rise 100% year over year $4.48 per share, while full-year revenue of $48.75 billion would rise 54.60% year over year.
Tesla’s increased focus on its growth strategy, namely production and profit margins, have been a key factor in the company’s recent success and the expected 100% rise in full-year profits. The company has achieved a production capacity run rate of more than 90% compared to each of the prior four quarters. In the first quarter, Tesla reported total revenues of $10.39 billion surged 73.5% year over year, beating estimate by $110 million, while adjusted EPS of 93 cents beat by 15 cents.
This was the company’s seventh straight quarter of profitability. Adjusted EBITDA was 17.7% of revenue, versus the 16.9% expected. Just as impressive, automotive gross margin came in at 26.5%, ahead of the 24.3% expected. On Monday, Tesla will need to keep its foot on the production/delivery gas pedals as it relates to Q3 guidance. Investors will also listen for progress on production timelines for the Semi and the Cybertruck, as well as building progress for Texas plant and the one being built in Germany which determine whether Tesla stock drives higher or continue in reverse.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.