Bitcoin Price Seesaws in Tight Range Awaiting Bullish Catalyst

Bitcoin Price Seesaws in Tight Range Awaiting Bullish Catalyst

Experts say bitcoin is extending the same old uneventful humdrum of recent weeks, trapped in a narrowing price range while awaiting the next bullish catalyst.

Over the last 24 hours, bitcoin’s price slumped to as low as $32,000 before buyers drove prices to an Asia intraday high of around $33,319. It is currently changing hands at $32,900, CoinDesk data shows.

On Thursday, bitcoin broke below initial support at $34,000 as regulatory concerns resurfaced, with China’s central bank having issued a warning about stablecoin risk.

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Prices, though, are still well within a holding pattern that has kept them locked between tightening support and resistance levels.

“I’m watching Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) continue to plummet, and whale wallets slowly accumulate while bitcoin trades in a bound range,” BCB Group CEO Oliver von Landsberg-Sadie told CoinDesk via Telegram.

Bitcoin: Coin Days Destroyed Source: Glassnode

CDD is Glassnode’s metric measuring economic activity that affords more weight to coins that have not been spent in a long time. The metric is calculated by taking the total number of coins in a given transaction and then multiplying that number by the total number of days developed since those coins were last spent.

“CDD weakens resistance, whale wallet accumulation strengthens support,” Landsberg-Sadie said, referring to holders of large amounts of crypto. “Any real good news will be the tipping point for a breakout that returns to the long-term upward trend.”

Bitcoin daily chart Source: TradingView

Indeed, the daily chart for bitcoin shows prices have been caught between $36,000 and $31,000 since at least June 21. Meantime, volume among most exchanges, including in regions where large transactions take place, has slumped.

“We have a long way to go to catch up with the Stock to Flow projections,” said Landsberg-Sadie, referring to a model that suggests bitcoin’s price should presently be sitting around $77,900.

How long that will take is anyone’s guess.

“Volumes are still quite thin across most major exchanges,” Blockstream CSO Samson Mow told CoinDesk. “We’ve seen it bounce back quickly each time so I’d expect more of the same until we see some major news pushing us higher.”

Most of the other notable cryptos in the top 20 by market value are also down slightly, with ethereum classic (ETC) and internet computer (ICP) the hardest hit over a 24-hour period.

Bitcoin price is 3–4 weeks away from new $24K–$29K range, market analyst warns

Popular cryptocurrency trader Keith Wareing warned Bitcoin (BTC) traders about a critical bearish scenario brewing in the market.

The trader spotted Bitcoin inside an inverse cup-and-handle pattern earlier this month, a bearish structure that forms during a price wave downward, followed by a stabilizing period. The technical design typically leads the price lower by as much as the size of the previous decline.

Bitcoin topped near $65,000 in mid-April before reversing to the downside in later sessions. The cryptocurrency crashed to as low as $28,800 on June 22 after attempting to keep prices above $30,000 repeatedly. It successfully did so but fell short of extending its bullish reversal momentum after facing comparatively higher selling pressure in the $35,000–$36,000 range.

Bitcoin cup-and-handle pattern visualized. Source: TradingView, Keith Wareing

The pattern’s handle part appeared like it is nearing exhaustion, prompting Wareing to say that Bitcoin’s price would fluctuate inside the structure for another three to four weeks. After that, the cryptocurrency would rally lower, insomuch that it could hit $24,000.

“If the handle breaks down, expect 24k -29k to be the new range. […] 3-4 more weeks of range-bound imo,” Wareing wrote in an update on Friday.

Negative outlook throughout riskier assets

Bearish warnings for Bitcoin picked up momentum in the weeks after global regulators increased their crackdown against the cryptocurrency sector. For example, in China, the central bank effectively banned all forms of crypto-related activities, including mining, one of the few surviving crypto industries following Beijing’s restriction on cryptocurrency trading in 2018.

Meanwhile, Binance, the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchange by volume, came under pressure from regulators in the United Kingdom, Thailand, Canada, Japan, and Cayman Islands over its sprawling crypto operations.

The U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority banned Binance from regulated financial activities last month. That prompted Barclays, Faster Payments and Santander to block its banking customers from accessing Binance.

Bids for BTC/USD also went down alongside traditional markets on rising concerns about the global economy primarily after days of sharp moves in sovereign bonds hinted at slower growth and inflation than previously anticipated.

“We are seeing an asset allocation change with people selling risky assets across the board and buying into the safer returns of government bonds,” noted Shaniel Ramjee, senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management, after yields on the 10-year United States Treasury note fell to as low as 1.276% on Thursday for the first time since February 2021.

Yields drop when bond prices rise.

Bitcoin shows erratic positive correlation with the U.S.10-year Treasury note yields. Source: TradingView

Clem Chambers, CEO of financial analysis service ADVFN, suggested that bulls should wait for a crash before dipping their toes in the Bitcoin market again, noting that the next best accumulation opportunities appear when the cryptocurrency dumps to $20,000.

Nevertheless, bulls remained hopeful that Bitcoin’s growing recognition in the mainstream space, especially against the persistent fears of higher inflation, would take the cryptocurrency out of its bearish slumber.

“Bitcoin has been trapped for most of the last 3 weeks in a long and tight (8%) trading range $32,500-$35,000,” said Ronnie Moas, founder of Standpoint Research.

“I see 20% downside [on] China, GBTC lockup, or some other negative headline [but] 150% upside between now and the year-end on an exchange-traded fund approval, some other positive headline, [and] supply-side shock.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin Price Prediction – A Move Back Through to $34,000 Would Bring $35,000 into Play

After a bearish end to the day on Wednesday, the bears remained in control through this morning’s session.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin, BTC to USD, was down by 3.75% to $32,618.2. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $33,939.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling well short of the first major resistance level at $34,713, Bitcoin tumbled to a late morning intraday low $32,104.0.

The extended sell-off saw Bitcoin fall through the first major support level at $33,437 and the second major support level at $32,986.

Through the early hours, avoiding sub-$32,000 was key. The third major support level sits at $31,710.

The Rest of the Pack

It has also been a bearish morning for the broader crypto market.

Through the morning, Crypto.com Coin was down by 6.33% to lead the way down.

Chainlink (-5.39%), Ethereum (-5.91%), Litecoin (-4.93%), Polkadot (-4.32%), and Ripple’s XRP (-4.55%) also saw heavy losses.

Bitcoin Cash SV (-0.53%), Binance Coin (-3.57%), and Cardano’s ADA (-2.46%) saw relatively modest losses, however.

Through the early hours, the crypto total market fell from an early morning high $1,423bn to a low $1,347bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,363bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to an early low 44.65% before rising to a high 45.14%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 44.93%.

For the Afternoon Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the $34,262 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $34,713 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break back through the major support levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rebound, resistance at $34,000 would likely leave Bitcoin short of the first major resistance level $34,713 and $35,000 levels.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $35,000 levels. The second major resistance level sits at $35,538.

Failure to move back through the second major support level at $32,986 would bring the third major support level at $31,710 back into play.

Story continues

Barring an extended sell-off through the afternoon, however, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$32,000 support levels.

Looking beyond the support and resistance levels, we saw a bearish cross this morning. The 50 EMA crossed through the 100 EMA and then the 200 EMA, supporting the early sell-off.

We also saw the 100 EMA pullback through the 200 EMA.

A further pullback of the 50 EMA from the 100 and 200 EMAs this afternoon would place Bitcoin under further pressure.

Key going into the afternoon will be to break back through to $34,000 levels to avoid a bigger hit on the day.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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