虛幣市值首破 2 兆美元！全球最大比特幣信託擬轉為 ETF
數位資產管理機構 Grayscale Investments 宣布，計畫將全球最大公開交易的比特幣基金「Grayscale 比特幣信託基金」（Grayscale Bitcoin Trust）轉換成 ETF，一切就等主管機關放行。值得注意的是，整體虛幣市值已首度突破 2 兆美元。
Grayscale 5 日透過官方部落格宣布，100% 承諾將 GBTC 轉換成 ETF。事實上，GBTC 乃世界僅有兩個已向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）完成註冊登記的虛幣基金之一，另一檔是「Grayscale 以太幣信託基金」（Grayscale Ethereum Trust）。
Grayscale 早在 2016 年就交出比特幣 ETF 申請書，2017 年不斷跟 SEC 來回溝通。Grayscale 最終撤銷申請，主因數位資產的監管環境尚未到位，無法讓類似商品成功上市。
Grayscale 承諾會將 GBTC 轉為 ETF，但時間點得看監管環境的進展而定。等到 GBTC 轉換成 ETF 後，擁有公開交易持股的股東不需做出任何調整，但管理費可望因而下降。
GBTC 的資產管理規模（AUM）目前來到 340 億美元，若跟全球原物料 ETF 相比可以排上第二名，僅次於實體黃金儲備量最高的 ETF「SPDR Gold Trust（GLD）」。
Barron’s、CoinDesk 等外電 5 日報導，GBTC 的市場報價已超過 30 天低於淨資產價值（net asset value），為 2013 年 9 月公開上市以來首見。
美國主管機關尚未核准任何比特幣 ETF，對想透過股市增加比特幣曝險度的投資人來說，GBTC 是他們為數不多的選項之一。市場需求高漲、再加上 GBTC 股票供給有限，讓 GBTC 長期處於溢價狀態。近來 GBTC 罕見折價，暗示投資人決定拋出部位，準備迎接比特幣 ETF。比特幣 ETF 的管理費預料會遠低於 Grayscale 收取的2%。
北美第 1 檔比特幣 ETF 已於 2 月 18 日在加拿大掛牌。英國金融時報、ZeroHedge 等外電報導，多倫多證券交易所集團（TMX Group）的資料顯示，加拿大掛牌的比特幣 ETF「Purpose Bitcoin ETF」，首日成交量就接近 1,000 萬股，一舉擠入多倫多證券交易所（TSX）當日前 10 大交易最活絡的 ETF。BTCC 僅上市 2 個月，管理的資產規模就膨脹至 12 億美元。
目前還在向 SEC 申請比特幣 ETF 的業者包括富達投資（Fidelity Investments）、VanEck、WisdomTree Investments（WETF）、SkyBridge Capital、Valkyrie Digital Assets 及 NYDIG Asset Management。
值得注意的是，明星經理人凱薩琳伍德（Cathie Wood）旗下的方舟投資（ARK Investments Management）早就已經持有 GBTC。包括摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）在內的大型金融機構，也都透過 GBTC 取得比特幣的間接曝險。若 GBTC 轉換成 ETF 後，費用、服務跟競爭產品差不多，這些機構應會繼續持有。
路透社報導，根據 CoinGecko、Blockfolio 追蹤的資料，虛幣市值已於 4 月 5 日突破 2 兆美元關卡，刷新歷史新高紀錄。比特幣市值已連續一週保持在 1 兆美元以上。分析人士直指，只要比特幣高於 53,000 美元，就可保住 1 兆美元市值。
（本文由 MoneyDJ新聞 授權轉載；首圖來源：Unsplash）
延伸閱讀：
Peter Thiel 認為比特幣可能成為中國的金融武器
眾所皆知，PayPal 共同創辦人也是 Facebook 早期投資人 Peter Thiel 過去一直以來都是相當堅定的虛擬貨幣支持者，但他現在認為虛擬貨幣可能損害美國利益，甚至稱比特幣可能成為中國用來對付美國的金融武器。
他在 Richard Nixon Foundation 所舉辦的虛擬論壇中表示，比特幣確實威脅著法定貨幣，尤其對美元更加嚴重。他解釋過去中國曾希望看到有另一種法幣挑戰美元作為全球儲備貨幣的角色，但這個角色目前不是人民幣，反而過去中國曾試著間接扶持歐元地位做為「部分」對抗美元的武器。
但他認為中國對歐元的扶持不見起色，所以現在中國正試圖提升比特幣的地位威脅美元。從地緣政治的角度來看的話，如果中國突然有意操作比特幣的話，美國就必須提出許多應變措施來面對挑戰。
他同時向美國政府倡議，現在就必須對虛擬貨幣提出更嚴格的控管機制。
不過他也批評，最近中國試著用區塊鏈所打造的數位人民幣「不是真正的虛擬貨幣，只是一種極權主義的控制手段」。
延伸閱讀：
Bloomberg Foresees Bitcoin Rallying to $400K This Year
How high can bitcoin fly in the ongoing bull run? That’s a question on traders’ minds after the cryptocurrency’s price jumped fivefold since October.
According to Bloomberg bitcoin (BTC) analysts, the price could climb as high as $400,000 this year, from about $56,000 now. The uber-bullish prediction is based on bitcoin’s performance during the 2017 and 2013 bull runs.
“Our graphic depicts bitcoin on similar ground as the roughly 55x gain in 2013 and 15x in 2017,” Bloomberg Crypto noted in a monthly report published this week. “To reach price extremes akin to those years in 2021, the crypto would approach $400,000, based on the regression since the 2011 high.”
Related: Mysterious Filings Suggest Impostor Is Using Grayscale’s Name to Pump Obscure Coins
While past performance is no guarantee of future results, history might rhyme. The latest bull run comes in the wake of last May’s reward halving on the Bitcoin blockchain – an automatic, every-four-years, 50% reduction in the pace of new issuance of units of the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin chalked up staggering gains in the 12 to 18 months following the previous reward halvings in November 2012 and July 2016.
“The year after a supply cut (halving) is what 2021 has in common with 2017 and 2013, along with subdued volatility,” the Bloomberg bitcoin analysts wrote, adding that the December 2017 peak represented a 50-fold rise from the average price observed in October 2015, when the 180-day volatility reached lifetime lows.
The long-term volatility gauge almost revisited the record low in September 2020, analysts noted. Bitcoin averaged roughly $11,000 that month.
Risk-off asset and digital gold
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Some observers fear a faster rise in bond yields could dilute the appeal of inflation hedges such as gold and bitcoin, pushing their prices lower.
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However, Bloomberg analysts foresee bitcoin remaining relatively resilient in a rising yield environment.
“Rising real yields are a headwind for gold prices, but less so for bitcoin, still in its price-discovery stage,” analysts noted. “Gold is fighting a battle with bitcoin, which can earn 6%-8% in crypto savings accounts and is well on its way to becoming a global reserve asset in a digital world.”
The cryptocurrency fell by 20% in the last week of February after the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to then-12-month highs above 1.5%. The yield has continued to rise since then and recently reached a 14-month high of 1.77%. The bitcoin market, meanwhile, has held firm.
According to the report, the steep discount witnessed recently in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), a popular investment vehicle, is the result of increased expectations that the U.S. will eventually approve a bitcoin exchange-traded fund. GBTC is still holding its 50-day average support, which has enticed buyers in the past. (Grayscale is owned by Digital Currency Group, which also owns CoinDesk.)
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