載舟覆舟！Crypto、PayPal走勢大相逕庭 比特幣是罪魁禍首

載舟覆舟！Crypto、PayPal走勢大相逕庭 比特幣是罪魁禍首

PayPal (PYPL-US) 和 Square (SQ-US) 都靠比特幣吸引顧客使用其 app 並維持其參與度，但兩家股價走勢卻大相逕庭，自從比特幣一個月前開始下跌以來，Square 股價就表現不佳。

如果加密貨幣持續熊市，兩家股價可能都會苦不堪言，但 Square 可能會面臨更多壓力，部分原因是該公司在散戶投資者中與比特幣的聯繫更為緊密。

兩種支付 app 都可輕鬆買賣和儲值加密貨幣，PayPal 在其 app 上提供數種加密貨幣，而 Square 只供應比特幣。這兩家作法像經紀人，賺取的是每筆交易的手續費和利潤。

來自加密貨幣的營收淨額並非其整體業務的大部分。MoffettNathanson 分析師 Lisa Ellis 指出，PayPal 今年營收約只因加密貨幣交易增加 2%，在營收總額 260 億美元中僅占 3 億至 6 億美元。

Square 第一季營收總額 51 億美元，其中比特幣營收 35 億美元。Square 的會計方式是：扣除購買比特幣的成本，在當季 9.64 億美元毛利總額中，只計入這些交易 7500 萬美元的毛利。

雖然加密貨幣的獲利非常微薄，但這兩家支付公司都將加密貨幣交易視為攏絡顧客並提高 app 參與度的一種手段。

Ellis 指出，「他們的加密貨幣用戶一天會多次打開 app 確認價格，這就讓公司有機會出售其他服務。」

Square 與加密貨幣聯繫更緊密，但部分原因是其創辦人兼執行長 Jack Dorsey 是加密貨幣狂粉，近日也曾在推特上表示，「比特幣使一切變得更好。」Square 過去幾季資產負債表上認列投資比特幣 2.2 億美元，現已對該投資進行減值。

加密貨幣低迷顯然對 Square 的影響更大。在過去的一個月中，Square 股價下跌約 17%，而 PayPal 股價僅下跌 4%。

但加密貨幣並非 Square 唯一苦痛來源，投資者逃離高倍數成長股的浪潮也重創 Square，反映投資者在價格上反映預期上升的通膨，這點會降低未來收益的現值。

根據未來 12 個月的估算，Square 現行股價是企業價值倍數 (EV/Ebitda) 的 113 倍，PayPal 則為 43 倍，對比其他同業如 Visa (V-US) 和 Mastercard (MA-US) 僅 27 倍至 30 倍。

Ellis 談到 PayPal 和 Square 時說，「他們是我兩家長期最愛的支付公司，但實際考慮上來說，機構投資者如果擔憂長期通膨，就會對這些高倍數股覺得反感。」

隨著比特幣價格的飆升，投資者也迷戀上這些股票，但水能載舟也會覆舟，如今比特幣和其他加密貨幣恐怕也是令他們憂心忡忡的原因之一。

週一美股普遍上漲，PayPal 週一上漲 2.58%，收 257.17 美元；Square 上漲 5.47%，收 210.95 美元。

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Market Wrap: Ether Trading Volume Up, Closing In on Bitcoin; Crypto Market Struggles

Investor interest in ether appears to keep growing, based on spot market volume and a pop in open interest in institutional-grade futures.

Ether (ETH) trading around $2,507 as of 21:00 UTC (4 p.m. ET). In the red 5% over the previous 24 hours.

Ether’s 24-hour range: $2,397-$2,750 (CoinDesk 20)

Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $37,310 as of 21:00 UTC (4 p.m. ET). Losing 5.6% over the previous 24 hours.

Bitcoin’s 24-hour range: $36,591-$39,824 (CoinDesk 20)

Ether volumes rival bitcoin again

Ether’s hourly price chart on Bitstamp since May 22. Source: TradingView

The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, ether, was trading at around $2,507 as of 21:00 UTC (4:00 p.m. ET), slipping 5% over the prior 24 hours. The asset is near the 10-hour moving average and above the 50-day, a sideways signal for market technicians.

Ether dipped from $2,750 at 00:45 UTC (8:45 p.m. ET Monday) to as low as $2,397 by 12:00 UTC (8 a.m. ET), a 12.8% decrease, based on CoinDesk 20 data. Bitcoin has since made gains, however, settling at $2,507 as of press time.

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“There is a good deal of room to intermediate-term oversold territory for ether,” said Katie Stockton, a technical analyst for Fairlead Strategies, in her weekly investor note. “The corrective phase has not damaged the long-term uptrend or positive monthly momentum indicators, so we ultimately would be a buyer into the weakness.”

Despite Stockton’s concerns about oversold territory, trading volumes for ether appear robust. Monday’s closing data from CoinDesk Research again highlights that traders will pool liquidity in digital assets that have long-term fundamental promise, and not just in bitcoin.

Volumes on major spot exchanges tracked by CoinDesk Research for bitcoin Monday were at $72,762,652,345, while ether was at $72,479,251,812, whereas BTC usually has dominated in the past.

Bitcoin and ether volumes so far in 2021. Source: CoinGecko

Ether futures open interest rebounding on CME

Open interest for ether futures on CME. Source: Skew

On Feb. 8, when institutional-grade venue CME first launched ether futures, open interest was $20 million, according to data aggregator Skew.

By May 14, ether open interest hit a record high of $598.4 million, a 28-fold increase and a sign professional money managers were seeking increased exposure in the digital asset. Since that zenith open interest dropped to as low as $366.9 million on Sunday, but closing data from Monday suggests interest is heading way back up, spiking almost 20% to $437.2 million.

“Traders’ outlook on Ethereum switched yesterday to highly positive after being negative for weeks,” said Nick Mancini, research analyst for crypto analytics platform Trade the Chain. “Such a jump in sentiment implies a hyper focus on Ethereum and ERC-20, or Ethereum-based, assets.”

Ether is up over 240% since the start of the year.

Spot ether performance on Coinbase in 2021. Source: TradingView

Read More: Crypto Assets May Force SEC to Modernize Custody Rules

Bitcoin and ether correlation going back up

Bitcoin’s hourly price chart on Bitstamp since May 22. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, dropped Tuesday by 5.6% as of press time. BTC was above the 10-hour moving average and the 50-day, a bullish signal for market technicians.

“Intermediate-term bitcoin momentum is to the downside,” said Fairlead’s Stockton. “But it should moderate in the weeks ahead, we expect temporary stabilization near a 50% retracement level of about $34,000.”

BTC fell from $39,824 at 00:45 UTC (8:45 p.m. ET Monday) to as low as $36,591 by 12:00 UTC (8 a.m. ET), an 8% decrease based on CoinDesk 20 data. Bitcoin has since recovered, however, settling at $37,310 as of press time. It’s similar market behavior to ether, with market ups-and-downs in tandem over the past 24 hours. Ether is gyrating more in percentages.

Bitcoin versus ether

Correlation between BTC and ETH the past three months. Source: CoinDesk Indexes

Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation to ETH is trending back up after dipping to a three-month low of 0.69. It’s at 0.75 as of closing data from Monday, according to CoinDesk Research.

Action in the ether market might take the spotlight from bitcoin over time due to very different mechanics between the two assets, according to Steven McClurg, chief investment officer at digital asset manager Valkyrie Investments.

“Due to the law of large numbers, it takes many more users today than it did a year ago to increase activity on the bitcoin network to the point it drives the price higher,” said McClurg. “ETH is getting traction due to ETH 2.0 and those staking their assets to the network in anticipation of proof-of-stake, taking out supply as demand comes in.”

Other markets

Fairlead’s Stockton sees promise in the relative stability of bitcoin over alternative cryptocurrencies in the week ahead based on her technical analysis of trends for her investor update late Monday.

Cardano, dogecoin, polkadot, XRP and stellar have fallen out of favor versus bitcoin, Stockton noted.

Digital assets on the CoinDesk 20 are red Tuesday. Notable losers as of 21:00 UTC (4:00 p.m. ET):

Equities:

Commodities:

Oil was down 0.26%. Price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude: $65.85.

Gold was in the green 1% and at $1,899 as of press time.

Silver is gaining, up 0.78% and changing hands at $27.99.

Treasurys:

The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell Tuesday to 1.557 and in the red 2.8%.