比特幣強勢回歸漲逾 50%,市場再喊 10 萬美元目標價

]

全球最大加密貨幣比特幣(Bitcoin)正在捲土重來,已從近期低點大漲超過 50% 以上,紐約 10 日下午報 45,781 美元,強勁漲勢重振投資人的希望,即使前途不明朗也全力向前衝,開始憧憬比特幣上漲到 10 萬美元,奔向月球、飛往無垠太空。

關於大量負面新聞恐讓比特幣下探 2 萬美元的傳言,已經是過去式,現在市場的預測是比特幣可能大步向前再創新高,並且狂漲不歇,這是由於比特幣已連續四週上漲,月線可望連二紅,並創 2 月以來最強的漲勢,邁向改寫新高紀錄的途中。

加密貨幣基金公司 CoinShares 策略長 Meltem Demirors 表示,比特幣強勢回歸,儘管有新的監管審查制度,但許多投資人視為正面消息和催化劑,因為它消除很多困惑,或是一部分的不確定性,並認為加密貨幣將不再是金融界的一個神秘角落。

Meltem Demirors 指出,比特幣正對抗外界對其破壞環境的批評,價格不跌反升,儘管世界各地主管機構承諾要實施更嚴格的監管制度,像是中國採取措施打擊加密貨幣挖礦,但比特幣仍奮力向前。

美國決策者正以新的方式關注數位資產,美國證券交易委員會主席 Gary Gensler 上週形容,加密貨幣領域是「狂野西部」,可能會在交易稅上制訂規範,但政府在制定監管框架時,不會為了保護投資者而妥協。

市場暫時拋開憂慮,對這波飆漲提出目標價,其中彭博分析師提出,如果跟隨以太幣的漲幅,比特幣能飆到 10 萬美元,而 Fundstrat Global Advisors 的分析師 Tom Lee 也喊出比特幣到 2021 年底會到 10 萬美元的目標價。

(首圖來源:pixabay)

斷電、禁交易所,中國接連出招但比特幣似乎影響不大

]

儘管面臨中國政府多方圍剿,比特幣一度面臨重擊,但經過一個月,一切似乎和中國政府的盤算不盡相同。

為了讓中國數位人民幣業務順利開展,中國政府有計畫的一步步進攻比特幣,在多處政府連手斷電礦場後,比特幣全網算力腰斬,幣值也連續崩跌,許多人甚至就像中國政府期望的那樣,認為比特幣終究要走向泡沫化。

然而比特幣精巧的設計,反而讓中國政府無所施力。當比特幣價值增長,越來越多人覺得有利可圖而投入挖礦以獲取比特幣時,比特幣網路的挖礦難度也會隨之提升,迫使礦工必須要付出更多資源挖礦,這樣的機制有助於比特幣網路保持平衡。

相反地,當全網算力大幅下降,礦工大量退出時,比特幣的挖礦難度也會隨之下降,誘使更多人投入挖礦。在中國政府於 2021 年六月大舉斷電礦場後,比特幣全網算力腰斬,隨之而來的是難度迅速下降。

原先貢獻全網算力近 60% 的中國礦工退出後,比特幣挖礦難度在一週內下降了約 30%,簡單來說,雖然比特幣幣值因此下跌了 40%,但礦工要獲取比特幣所需付出的資源也下降了 30%。一來一往之間,中國政府斷電礦場的政策,反而是將原本由中國礦工壟斷的挖礦事業,拱手讓給海外礦工,而且消耗的電力還更少。

▲ 比特幣算力從谷底又慢慢回升。( Source:Bitinfochart)

2021 年 5 月,比特幣全網算力來到歷史高峰 186MTH/s(每秒百萬雜湊值),在中國政府介入後,算力驟降至兩年來最低的 68MTH/s,然而經歷一個月,全球礦工們積極搶下中國讓出的機會,順勢搶購中國礦工便宜出售的礦機,目前算力已回升到 110MTH/s。

除了礦工,雖然中國政府明文禁止交易所,但中國用戶並未消失市場,幣安(Binance)與火幣(Huobi)依然提供中國用戶交易管道,想阻止這些去中心化交易所,光靠中國網路長城還不夠,恐怕還需要金融長城,禁止中國人民將人民幣兌換成他國法幣,才有可能禁絕交易所生存空間。

中國政府打壓無效,最有力的證據就是在過去一個月,這些與中國高度相關的亞洲交易所,包括幣安、火幣與 OKEx,依然是全球最活絡的加密貨幣交易所。相比之下,今年風光上市的美國交易所 Coinbase 交易量,都遠遠落後於這些中國政府認為不合法的交易所。

不可否認,中國政府對於挖礦和交易所的禁令,都對比特幣造成一定程度的衝擊,但短短不到兩個月,比特幣算力與幣值明顯恢復良好,超出許多人預期。過去兩週比特幣上漲超過 40%,幣值從跌破 3 萬美元到超過 4 萬美元,如今落在 38,994 美元,應該讓前陣子接手中國礦機的礦工樂不可支。

(首圖來源:Pixabay)

Scepticism grows in El Salvador over pioneering Bitcoin gamble

]

Litha María de Los Angeles slaps two cheese-filled pupusas – the El Salvadoran cornmeal flatbread – on the griddle. With a camera click on the QR code, she receives her payment: four hundred-thousandths of a Bitcoin. Then, as the rain pelts the corrugated iron roof and a gust of wind lifts the blue plastic table cloths, the power cuts out.

A tumultuous few weeks awaits El Salvador as it prepares to become the first country to adopt Bitcoin, the world’s most popular decentralised digital currency, as legal tender on 7 September. With that deadline looming, a host of challenges – technological, financial and criminal – threaten to sink the plan of the president, Nayib Bukele, to ride the Central American economy out of its current choppy waters on the back of a cryptocurrency wave.

El Zonte, a surf town with about 3,000 residents and a black sand, pebble-strewn beach, is an unlikely location for a global financial revolution. But since 2018 the town’s Bitcoin Beach project has been a petri dish for cryptocurrency adoption. Backed by Californian donors, the project gave $50 (£36) in Bitcoin to each local family, encouraged the cryptocurrency’s adoption by local vendors, and paid dozens of social projects with it, from lifeguarding to rubbish collecting.

Litha María de Los Angeles at work in El Zonte. Photograph: Mat Youkee

“Now you can buy groceries, pupusas, or pay for your internet with Bitcoin,” says José Roman Martínez, 30, one of the founders of Bitcoin Beach. “For many people, this is the first time they’ve received a digital payment.”

Interest in the project from crypto-savvy tourists has given a new lease of life to El Zonte and led to a real-estate boom in the town, according to Martínez. “When I was a kid, the only thing Salvadorans wanted to do was to cross the border and head to the US. Now the kids here are dreaming of better things.”

Can a circular-economy experiment backed by a handful of foreign crypto-evangelists replicate itself at the national level? Salvadorans have had no say in the matter so far, but they are about to find out.

Bukele announced his plan to elevate Bitcoin to legal tender in June (a month before his 40th birthday) with his customary millennial elan: via video link to a Miami cryptocurrency conference. Since then, like Elon Musk with a presidential mandate, he has prolifically pumped out Bitcoin memes and promises on his Twitter account.

Just five days after the announcement, lawmakers passed the bill by a large majority. A national digital wallet called Chivo – local slang for “cool” – is in development with $30 worth of Bitcoin uploaded to each one as an initial balance. Transactions in Bitcoin will be exempt from capital gains tax, and foreigners investing three Bitcoins in the country (about $120,000) will be granted residency.

El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, speaking in June about the cryptocurrency plans. Photograph: El Salvador’s Presidency/Reuters

In August a research note by Bank of America enthused about the new law’s ability to reduce the cost of cross-border transactions (remittances account for 20% of El Salvador’s GDP), increase digital penetration in a country where 70% of people still do not use banks, and attract foreign investment as a first mover in cryptocurrency adoption.

Since then, however, the verdict from international financial organisations – and El Salvadorans themselves – has turned decidedly pessimistic.

“The law was adopted extremely quickly, without a technical study or a public debate,” says Ricardo Castañeda, a local economist. “I don’t think the president has fully understood the implications of the law, its potential to cause serious macroeconomic problems and convert the country into a haven for money laundering.”

The regulatory framework for adoption has yet to be published and there are rumours of delays to the Chivo app. Bankers in the capital say they have received calls from anxious clients threatening to withdraw their deposits rather than risk exposure to the volatile cryptocurrency markets.

This is Yolo investing elevated to the national level Daniel Munevar, Colombian economist

The ratings agency Moody’s downgraded El Salvadoran debt over fears of “weakened governance” evidenced by the new law, and the IMF – with which the government is negotiating a $1bn loan – published a blogpost highlighting the risks of adopting crypto as national currency.

“The shift from euphoria to scepticism has been very fast,” says Castañeda.

The potential benefits identified by the Bank of America are probably overstated. A paper by Johns Hopkins University says the cost of remittances via Bitcoin will be higher than traditional methods, and a July survey found that nearly two-thirds of El Salvadorans would not be open to accepting payment in Bitcoin.

Eric Grill, CEO of Chainbytes, which produces Bitcoin ATMs, told the Guardian that his plan to relocate manufacturing to El Salvador had faced serious challenges in sourcing parts. Local geothermal energy experts say Bukele’s plan to power energy-intensive Bitcoin mining activities from the country’s volcanoes are wildly optimistic.

Dominga Peña selling cups of shaved ice on the beach in El Zonte. Photograph: Mat Youkee

The government insists that El Salvadorans will be free to exchange their Bitcoin for US dollars, which the country adopted as national currency in 2001, and has proposed a $150m fund to ensure convertibility. Given popular scepticism, however, critics say this is unlikely to be sufficient. It would also open the door for illegal actors to convert Bitcoin – which rose to prominence on Silk Road, an online black market, and prides itself on the anonymity of transactions – to dollars via a national bank and thereby launder their gains.

Perhaps the biggest concern, however, is that it exposes a population with little financial education – for the most part, without an economic safety net – to the fate of the highly volatile cryptocurrency markets.

“The Bitcoin law essentially gambles with two public purses, that of the El Salvador government and of the IMF,” says Daniel Munevar, a Colombian economist focused on debt justice. “It’s one thing for an American to bet his stimulus cheque on cryptocurrency in the hope of big returns, but this is Yolo [you only live once] investing elevated to the national level.”

In El Zonte, locals are developing their own common-sense investment strategies. Dominga Peña sells minutas – cups of shaved ice flavoured with fruit syrups – on the beach.

She says one in 10 customers pay with Bitcoin and she keeps most of that as an emergency spending fund for small purchases. “The people from Bitcoin Beach explained the benefits and disadvantages [of receiving crypto-payments],” she said. “It changed my mentality to investing, but I wouldn’t keep too much money in Bitcoin. The price has gone up and down a lot recently.”