載舟覆舟！Crypto、PayPal走勢大相逕庭 比特幣是罪魁禍首
PayPal (PYPL-US) 和 Square (SQ-US) 都靠比特幣吸引顧客使用其 app 並維持其參與度，但兩家股價走勢卻大相逕庭，自從比特幣一個月前開始下跌以來，Square 股價就表現不佳。
如果加密貨幣持續熊市，兩家股價可能都會苦不堪言，但 Square 可能會面臨更多壓力，部分原因是該公司在散戶投資者中與比特幣的聯繫更為緊密。
兩種支付 app 都可輕鬆買賣和儲值加密貨幣，PayPal 在其 app 上提供數種加密貨幣，而 Square 只供應比特幣。這兩家作法像經紀人，賺取的是每筆交易的手續費和利潤。
來自加密貨幣的營收淨額並非其整體業務的大部分。MoffettNathanson 分析師 Lisa Ellis 指出，PayPal 今年營收約只因加密貨幣交易增加 2%，在營收總額 260 億美元中僅占 3 億至 6 億美元。
Square 第一季營收總額 51 億美元，其中比特幣營收 35 億美元。Square 的會計方式是：扣除購買比特幣的成本，在當季 9.64 億美元毛利總額中，只計入這些交易 7500 萬美元的毛利。
雖然加密貨幣的獲利非常微薄，但這兩家支付公司都將加密貨幣交易視為攏絡顧客並提高 app 參與度的一種手段。
Ellis 指出，「他們的加密貨幣用戶一天會多次打開 app 確認價格，這就讓公司有機會出售其他服務。」
Square 與加密貨幣聯繫更緊密，但部分原因是其創辦人兼執行長 Jack Dorsey 是加密貨幣狂粉，近日也曾在推特上表示，「比特幣使一切變得更好。」Square 過去幾季資產負債表上認列投資比特幣 2.2 億美元，現已對該投資進行減值。
加密貨幣低迷顯然對 Square 的影響更大。在過去的一個月中，Square 股價下跌約 17%，而 PayPal 股價僅下跌 4%。
但加密貨幣並非 Square 唯一苦痛來源，投資者逃離高倍數成長股的浪潮也重創 Square，反映投資者在價格上反映預期上升的通膨，這點會降低未來收益的現值。
根據未來 12 個月的估算，Square 現行股價是企業價值倍數 (EV/Ebitda) 的 113 倍，PayPal 則為 43 倍，對比其他同業如 Visa (V-US) 和 Mastercard (MA-US) 僅 27 倍至 30 倍。
Ellis 談到 PayPal 和 Square 時說，「他們是我兩家長期最愛的支付公司，但實際考慮上來說，機構投資者如果擔憂長期通膨，就會對這些高倍數股覺得反感。」
隨著比特幣價格的飆升，投資者也迷戀上這些股票，但水能載舟也會覆舟，如今比特幣和其他加密貨幣恐怕也是令他們憂心忡忡的原因之一。
週一美股普遍上漲，PayPal 週一上漲 2.58%，收 257.17 美元；Square 上漲 5.47%，收 210.95 美元。
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Millennials Own More Crypto Than Any Other Generation
Petri Oeschger / Getty Images
A recent study from Piplsay found that 49% of millennials polled own cryptocurrency compared to 38% of Gen Xers and 13% of GenZ. Millennials are also more likely to adopt the investment as a form of payment, with 53% saying they are “very likely” to purchase products or services with crypto, vs. 40% of GenX polled and just 7% of GenZ.
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“Millennials are growing natively with Web 2.0 — that is, mobile — and Web 3.0 (crypto) technology,” says Kurt Kumar of Rocketfuel Blockchain, a crypto payment processing company. “They intuitively understand digital wallets and treasure chests, which are part of many games younger millennials played, such as Fortnite and Minecraft.”
Beresford Research notes that the youngest millennials are 25, while the oldest in the cohort are 40. Kumar also pointed out that some of the younger members of this generation may not have credit cards or bank accounts yet, so they are instantly leveraging crypto wallets to conduct trades and transactions.
While this explanation could also apply to GenZ, it’s possible that more millennials have the maturity and knowledge to research and embrace crypto. GenZ, which ranges in age from 6 to 24, is just getting started dipping their toes into personal finance waters.
The Piplsay research also revealed that 88% of all crypto investing was done by respondents with a college or master’s degree.
The survey tallied the online responses of 5,061 people over the age of 18. Another survey from the Harris Poll and online savings site CouponCabin.com found that 44% of 2,063 Americans polled said they were “somewhat” or “very” familiar with crypto. These numbers are in line with the Piplsay findings, as well as past Harris Poll studies.
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“These results are consistent with a Bloomberg/Harris Poll survey from February that saw 43% of Americans respond that they were somewhat or very familiar with cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin,” said Andrew Gretchko of CouponCabin. “Even after the massive Coinbase IPO and multiple new highs, the overall awareness for cryptocurrencies amongst the American public has largely been unchanged over the past few months.”
The Musk Effect?
At least some of the millennial interest in crypto may also stem from billionaire Elon Musk’s interest in the topic.
“Elon’s meme tweets to his millions of followers resonates with millennials as they are the ones growing up with “meme culture.” Memes have been a main conduit for communicating certain references across millennial peer groups,” Kumar said. He noted that the generation considers themselves “meme-dealers.”
Read: How Does Cryptocurrency Work – and Is It Safe?
A separate Piplsay survey found that 41% of millennials and 35% of GenX follow Musk’s tweets closely, compared to 24% of GenZ. Half of millennials polled said they made or considered making investments based on the Tesla Technoking’s tweets.
Doge More Famous Than Ethereum
Musk’s social media presence has raised awareness about crypto in general, and Dogecoin, the cryptocurrency that began as a joke, specifically. The Harris Poll survey found that 89% of Americans have heard of cryptocurrency, with 71% knowing about Bitcoin. The survey found 29% of Americans have heard of Doge, while only 21% know about Ethereum, which is second only to Bitcoin in market cap.
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“The abnormally high awareness for Dogecoin (29%) leads me to believe that the cultural relevance the cryptocurrency has been provided by Elon Musk has certainly given it an edge,” Gretchko said. “While Ethereum seems to have more long-term utility, the latter has been memefied and gained Musk’s support, boosting its gains and providing additional visibility.”
Crypto as Rewards
Not everyone loves crypto, though, based on the Harris Poll. Gretchko pointed out that 26% of those polled believe they’re used for illegal transactions on the internet, 23% think they’re a get rich quick scheme, and 19% called them “nefarious” or “shady.”
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Somewhat surprisingly, 44% of those surveyed in the Harris Poll said they would be interested in receiving cryptocurrency as an alternative to traditional cash back reward programs from retailers/cash back websites. “It’s one thing to be familiar with cryptocurrencies through friends, family, the news or the Internet, but it’s another to turn down cold, hard cash in exchange for cryptocurrency as part of a loyalty program,” Gretchko said. “I’d speculate that many view loyalty programs as ‘free’ money, and therefore are more willing to take a risk with money they haven’t already budgeted as opposed to taking part of their salary and investing in, say, Bitcoin.”
Is Crypto Still a Good Investment?
As Bitcoin remained under $40,000 per U.S. dollar for the seventh day straight and other crypto similarly dipped, it may look like a good time to buy. “Crypto is here to stay,” Kumar said. “Having some portion in Bitcoin is a hedge against [inflation] and sound financial planning. Bitcoin, over the last 10 years, has only gone up.”
Kumar encourages retail investors to look at Bitcoin and Ethereum, avoiding alt-coins unless they have a good understanding of them. “Steer clear of Doge unless the itch is too strong and you want to embrace the speculative nature,” Kumar said. “Then, just invest a few hundred dollars and move on. If it goes up in the next few months or years, you’re ahead, and if it does not, you’re not facing a big loss.”
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Tony Molina, CPA and Senior Product Specialist at Wealthfront, advises similar caution with any crypto investments. “Before you decide to buy the dip, make sure you don’t overexpose yourself just because Bitcoin is on sale,” he said. “Remember the golden rule with volatile assets like Bitcoin is to only invest an amount you would be willing to lose.”
Molina said a smarter investment strategy would include ETFs, with an eye on long-term wealth building. “The best practice is to keep the vast majority of your portfolio in a globally diversified portfolio of ETFs, which is a strategy proven to maximize reward while minimizing risk. Then you can use the remainder of your portfolio on things you want to try.”
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: Millennials Own More Crypto Than Any Other Generation