crude imports: Another weak month for crude imports in Asia undercuts oil bulls: Russell, Auto News, ET Auto

crude imports: Another weak month for crude imports in Asia undercuts oil bulls: Russell, Auto News, ET Auto

By Clyde RussellLAUNCESTON: Another month, another weak outcome for crude oil in Asia, the world’s top-consuming region, with July’s imports declining for a fourth month in five as demand weakened amid high prices and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.Asia’s imports for July were assessed at 21.77 million barrels per day (bpd) by Refinitiv Oil Research , a 10-month low and down from June’s 23.08 million bpd.The weakness was led by China, the world’s biggest importer, with July’s arrivals estimated at 9.21 million bpd, a seven-month low.Kpler, which similar to Refinitiv assesses crude flows using vessel-tracking and port data, was slightly more optimistic on China’s imports, estimating July at 9.57 million bpd.However, Kpler’s data shows that China’s July’s imports were the weakest since February last year.China’s imports have been constrained by lower import quotas for independent refiners, but also as processors dip into inventories accumulated last year when the price collapsed to the lowest in two decades amid the pandemic and a brief price war between top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia.India, Asia’s second-biggest importer, also saw a soft outcome in July, with imports dropping to 3.41 million bpd, which Refinitiv data shows was the second-lowest since it started assessments in 2015.At the time when crude that arrived in July was purchased, India was battling a renewed coronavirus outbreak, which coupled with Brent crude futures enjoying strong gains saw refiners scale back purchases.Brent, the global benchmark futures contract, gained 50% between the end of last year and the peak so far this year of $77.84 a barrel on July 6.It has since retreated to trade around $70.38 a barrel in Asia on Thursday, as the market struggles with the competing narratives of rising demand in North America and Europe versus weakening Asian consumption, as well as increasing supply from the OPEC+ producer group.BRIGHT SPOTS?If you were looking for a bright spot in Asia, the best chance would be South Korea, which is likely to pass Japan as the region’s third-biggest crude importer this year.South Korea’s July imports were assessed by Refinitiv at 2.67 million bpd, up a touch from June’s 2.65 million bpd, making it the only one of the region’s six biggest importers to show a month-on-month increase.Japan’s imports dropped to 1.86 million bpd in July from June’s 1.94 million bpd, Taiwan was steady at 820,000 bpd while Singapore slipped to 960,000 bpd from 1.06 million in June.The overall picture that emerges is one where Asia’s demand just simply cannot be reconciled with a bullish narrative.It has been on a downward trend for all of 2021, and with several major economies in the region still struggling with the pandemic, it would be hard to make the case that a rebound is imminent.For Asia’s crude imports to recover, demand will have to return to at least pre-pandemic levels, and that will only happen when economies are fully re-opened and regional travel resumes.The slow vaccination rollouts in many of Asia’s countries are incompatible the full re-opening of the region’s economies any time soon, meaning crude demand could be muted for several months to come.However, if the additional supply from OPEC+, which agreed to add 400,000 bpd per month from August to December, does serve to lower prices, it will help boost Asian demand, especially from price sensitive importers such as India and China.(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

Bullish Harami Definition

What Is a Bullish Harami?

A bullish harami is a basic candlestick chart pattern indicating that a bearish trend in an asset or market may be reversing.

Key Takeaways A bullish harami is a candlestick chart indicator used for spotting reversals in a bear trend.

It is generally indicated by a small increase in price (signified by a white candle) that can be contained within the given equity’s downward price movement (signified by black candles) from the past couple of days.

Understanding a Bullish Harami

A bullish harami is a candlestick chart indicator suggesting that a bearish trend may be coming to end. Some investors may look at a bullish harami as a good sign that they should enter a long position on an asset.

A candlestick chart is a type of chart used to track the performance of a security, named for the rectangular shape depicted in the chart, with lines protruding from the top and bottom, which resembles a candle and wicks. A candlestick chart typically represents the price data of stock on a single day, including opening price, closing price, high price, and low price.

Investors looking to identify harami patterns must first look for daily market performance reported in candlestick charts. Harami patterns emerge over two or more days of trading, and a bullish harami relies on initial candles to indicate that a downward price trend is continuing, and that a bearish market looks to be pushing the price lower.

The bullish harami indicator is charted as a long candlestick followed by a smaller body, referred to as a doji, that is completely contained within the vertical range of the previous body. To some, a line drawn around this pattern resembles a pregnant woman. The word harami comes from an old Japanese word meaning pregnant.

For a bullish harami to appear, a smaller body on the subsequent doji will close higher within the body of the previous day’s candle, signaling a greater likelihood that a reversal will occur.

Image by Sabrina Jiang © Investopedia 2020

The chart above depicts a bullish harami. The first two black candles indicate a two-day downward trend in the asset, and the white candle represents a slightly upward trend on the third day, which is completely contained by the body of the previous candle. Investors seeing this bullish harami may be encouraged by this diagram, as it can signal a reversal in the market.

Bullish Harami, Bearish Harami, and Advanced Candlestick Patterns

Analysts looking for fast ways to analyze daily market performance data will rely on patterns in candlestick charts to expedite understanding and decision-making.

While the bullish harami and its counterpart, the bearish harami, serve to predict upcoming reversals in the trending direction of prices, candlestick chart analysis offers a wide range of patterns to predict future trends. Bullish and bearish haramis are among a handful of basic candlestick patterns, including bullish and bearish crosses, evening stars, rising threes, and engulfing patterns. A deeper analysis provides insight using more advanced candlestick patterns, including island reversal, hook reversal, and san-ku or three gaps patterns.

Three Outside Up

What Is a Three Outside Up/Down?

The three outside up and three outside down are three-candle reversal patterns that appear on candlestick charts. The pattern requires three candles to form in a specific sequence, showing that the current trend has lost momentum and might signal a reversal of an existing trend. In particular, the pattern is formed when a dark candlestick is followed by two white-body ones, or vice versa.

The three outside up and three outside down may be compared with a three inside up/down candle.

Key Takeaways Three outside up/down are patterns of three candlesticks that often signal a reversal in trend.

The three outside up and three outside down patterns are characterized by one candlestick immediately followed by two candlesticks of opposite shading.

Each tries to leverage market psychology in order to read near-term changes in sentiment.

How Three Outside Up/Down Candlesticks Work

Image by Julie Bang © Investopedia 2019

The three outside up is a bullish candlestick pattern with the following characteristics:

The market is in a downtrend. The first candle is black. The second candle is white with a long real body and fully contains the first candle. The third candle is white with a higher close than the second candle.

The three outside down, meanwhile, is a bearish candlestick pattern with the following characteristics:

The market is in an uptrend. The first candle is white. The second candle is black with a long real body that fully contains the first candle. The third candle is black with a close lower than the second candle.

The first candle marks the beginning of the end for the prevailing trend as the second candle engulfs the first candle. The third candle then marks an acceleration of the reversal.

The three outside up and three outside down patterns occur frequently and are reliable indicators of a reversal. Traders can use these indicators as primary buying or selling signals but still watch for confirmations from other chart patterns or technical indicators.

Three Outside Up Trader Psychology

The first candle continues the bearish trend, with the close lower than the open indicating strong selling interest while increasing bear confidence. The second candle opens lower but reverses, crossing through the opening tick in a display of bull power. This price action raises a red flag, telling bears to take profits or tighten stops because a reversal is possible.

The security continues to post gains, lifting price above the range of the first candle, completing a bullish outside day candlestick. This increases bull confidence and sets off buying signals, confirmed when the security posts a new high on the third candle.

Three Outside Down Trader Psychology

The first candle continues the bullish trend, with the close higher than the open indicating strong buying interest while increasing bull confidence. The second candle opens higher but reverses, crossing through the opening tick in a display of bear power. This price action raises a red flag, telling bulls to take profits or tighten stops because a reversal is possible.

The security continues to post losses, seeing its price drop below the range of the first candle, completing a bearish outside day candlestick. This increases bear confidence and sets off selling signals, confirmed when the security posts a new low on the third candle.