加密貨幣大熱，比特幣上看 10 萬美元，以太幣目標 1 萬美元

加密貨幣大熱，比特幣上看 10 萬美元，以太幣目標 1 萬美元

Fundstrat 最新投資報告指出，比特幣目標將上看 10 萬美元，而以太幣也將成長到 1 萬美元新價位，整體加密貨幣市值將來到 5 兆美元。

上個月初，投資顧問機構 Fundstrat 認為，降溫回檔對於比特幣價格是健康的好事，經過這一個月，比特幣從歷史新高的 6.4 萬美元，一度跌破 5 萬美元，最近一週又慢慢站穩腳步。Fundstrat 認為，這一階段的整理已經完畢，下一階段將要迎接新的高峰。

▲ 幣圈一日，人間十年，比特幣的回檔來得又快又猛。（Source：CoinDesk）

當然，喊空話大家都會，講起來總是頭頭是道，因此必須先看一下過去的預測，來確認一下可信度。

▲ Fundstrat 過去一年半對比特幣價格的預估是藍線，黑線為實際價格。（Source：Fundstrat）

如果看 2020 年 3 月比特幣跌破 5 千美元時，1.6 萬美元的預測實在夠大膽，神奇的是去年第三季不斷調高目標價後，比特幣價格就一直追著目標價跑，這預測究竟準不準，就看各位自己判斷了。

機構大舉進場，只是還沒公開

比特幣 10 萬美元價位的大膽預測，有個主要支撐點在於，雖然 Facebook 並沒有買入，但大量機構正在進場，且我們知道，這些機構大部分都不會高調宣告買進多少比特幣。

據 Funstrat 理論，比特幣看漲的主要理由包括美元持續弱勢、國際地緣政治局勢緊張、PayPal 和 CoinBase 上市，不斷增加比特幣需求等，當然最主要的，還是資產配置避險需求，且已從個人進展為法人，讓交易量和流動性都持續增長。

機構進場的影響甚鉅，2020 年 Q2 基本上沒有任何機構買入比特幣，但到了 2021 年 Q1，機構交易量，已經佔據比特幣場外交易的 27%，成為場外交易中最大的主力，按照美國比特幣場外交易的總量推算，約有價值 85 億美元比特幣，是由機構交易。

這個數字如果扣掉特斯拉、MicroStrategy 等公開交易的消息，仍有很大數量交易未公開，換句話說，Fundstrat 認為，接下來幾週的財報裡，會有越來越多公司揭露購入比特幣的消息。這些消息，就是比特幣價格波動的燃料。

除了比特幣，漲勢凶猛的以太幣已突破歷史高點，且持續升空，Fundstrat 樂觀認為以太幣將會衝到 1.05 萬美元價位，成長幅度將超越比特幣。

以太幣價位以前就跟比特幣有緊密關係，但在 DeFi（去中心化金融）和其他區塊鏈應用不斷誕生後，以太幣流動性與實用度大幅增加，ETH 2.0 版本上線後，Fundstrat 認為以現在局勢來看，以太幣要站上 1 萬美元是遲早的事，如果按照模型估算，甚至可能高達 3 萬美元。

整體而言，Fundstrat 認為 2021 年加密貨幣的牛市將會持續，並有三個預測：

比特幣 10 萬美元。

以太幣 1.05 萬美元。

加密貨幣整體市值 5 兆美元。

最後還是要補一句，投資有風險，投資加密貨幣有超高風險，畢竟可沒有什麼熔斷、跌停、交易警示措施，一切都是市場決定，投資人務必要做好功課和心理準備再行動。

（首圖來源：shutterstock）

What Square’s smashing earnings tell us about consumer bitcoin demand – TechCrunch

Shares of Square are up more than 6% today after the American fintech company reported a staggering $5.06 billion in revenue in its Q1 2021 earnings report, far ahead of an expected tally of $3.36 billion.

By posting the huge revenue beat, Square grew 266% compared to its year-ago Q1. Because that’s the sort of growth that we generally expect to see from early-stage startups instead of maturing public companies, some exploration is in order. In short, bitcoin revenues from Square, and how they fit into its accounting, are responsible for much of its outsized growth.

And that’s something we need to talk about.

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Square’s performance apart from its bitcoin-driven results were strong. But its bitcoin incomes underscore not only rising consumer sentiment concerning bitcoin, but also an interesting angle on the question of Coinbase and its long-term fee structure.

Mix in the huge growth in bitcoin investment activity that Robinhood has seen and we can easily understand that, at least in the American market, consumers are not beholden to traditional cryptocurrency arguments regarding coin ownership. And the pace at which non-Coinbase entities are accreting trading volume could point to more competition at the now-public crypto exchange than some fans, backers and believers anticipated.

So today, we’re talking Square earnings and its bitcoin base, especially in how it relates to the results of other entities that offer bitcoin sales. Our broader question is whether consumers are going to behave as many expect, or if the less crypto-focused on-ramps to bitcoin and its brethren will prove more popular than many crypto-enthusiasts anticipate.

A bitcoin boom

If we remove the bitcoin top line from Square’s quarter, the company posted $1.55 billion in revenue, a figure that was up 44% compared to its year-ago period. That’s impressive.

But the company’s bitcoin-related revenue growth was far more so. From $306.1 million in Q1 2020 bitcoin revenue to $3.51 billion in Q1 2021, Square wrote in its report that it saw “significant growth in bitcoin revenue year over year,” up “approximately 11x.”

Bitcoin business now accounts for 70% of Square’s revenue

Square’s bet on crypto keeps paying off: The Cash App business, fueled by bitcoin trading, generated the bulk of the company’s revenue in the first quarter.

Meanwhile, the makeup of Square’s seller ecosystem — the payment acceptance business the company is best known for — is transforming, with less emphasis on small merchants. In the first quarter, companies with payment volume of less than $125,000 per year accounted for only 39% of the total Seller ecosystem’s $29.8 billion in activity, down from 48% in the same quarter one year earlier.

The Cash App ecosystem generated approximately 80% of Square’s $5.06 billion in revenue for the quarter, with bitcoin trading contributing $3.5 billion, or 70% of the total. This represented a substantial increase from the fourth quarter of 2020 where bitcoin trading, which had already grown significantly, accounted for 56% of the company’s revenue.

“We see bitcoin as the internet’s potential to have a native currency and we want to further that as much as we can,” Jack Dorsey, Square’s CEO, said Thursday in an earnings call. “A lot of our work really lines up to that.”

Dorsey emphasized that Square’s long-term focus is supporting bitcoin’s role as a native currency for the internet. “It removes a bunch of friction for our business and we believe fully that it creates more opportunities for the economic empowerment around the world," he said.

Overall, Square ‘s gross payment volume grew to $33 billion for the quarter, up 29% from $25.7 billion in the same quarter one year earlier. Cash App generated $3.4 billion of that GPV, up 227% year over year, while the Seller ecosystemprocessed $29.8 billion in GPV, up 20% year over year.

The Seller ecosystem generated $1.02 billion in revenue and $468 million of gross profit, up 19% and 32% year-over-year, respectively. Despite this performance, it’s clear that Seller is being overshadowed by growth in the Cash App — and crypto specifically — to the point that merchant acceptance is looking like a side business for Square.

Dorsey also highlighted the company’s acquisition of Tidal , along with the singer Jay-Z joining Square’s board, as a seminal moment in launching a new ecosystem to support the music industry.

Aside from bitcoin, the Cash App overall holds strong potential as the company continues to groom it with new features. Square’s Cash App stands at the forefront of a growing number of " Super Apps ” being rolled out or gaining significant market share traction. In PayPal’s most recent earnings release, CEO Dan Schulman reported that PayPal would be releasing its Super App in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the tech giant Google has already released an early version of its Super App, which combines P2P transfers, Google Pay, shopping and checking accounts from bank partners such as Citi and Stanford FCU .

Square reported total revenue for the fourth quarter of $5.06 billion, up from $1.38 billion in the same quarter one year earlier. The company reported a net income of $39 million for the quarter after reporting a net loss of $106 million for the year-earlier period.