A crypto ‘fear and greed’ indicator is flashing a warning signal that shows investors are being extremely greedy as top cryptocurrencies hit record highs
Getty Images / Johannes Eisele
A crypto “fear-and-greed” gauge that tracks investor sentiment flashed a warning sign on Tuesday.
The index showed investors are showing extreme greed, indicating a market correction is due.
This index last reached the same level on January 6, right before bitcoin’s previous record high.
Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell.
As the price of top cryptocurrencies hit all-time highs on Tuesday, a key sentiment index showed that crypto investors are displaying extreme greed.
A “crypto fear and greed” index, a metric published by Alternative.me, rose from 83 to 95 on Tuesday, suggesting a level of “Extreme Greed.” Similar to other gauges that track fear on traditional stock markets, this crypto index uses a number of metrics to measure investor sentiment from a scale of zero to 100, ranging from “Extreme Fear” to “Extreme Greed”.
Alternative.me
Read More: Short-seller Carson Block says the day-trading revolution that hit GameStop and other stocks is changing the playing field for investors like him. Here’s how his firm is reinventing itself - and what he’s betting against today.
The tool measures two primary emotions that influence how likely investors are to purchase cryptocurrencies: fear and greed. Extreme fear is indicative of investors being too worried, meaning they are more likely to retreat from the market, prompting prices to fall and that could mark a good time to buy, according to Alternative.me. On the other hand, when investors get too greedy, this could indicate cryptocurrency prices are due for a correction.
The index last reached the same 95 level on January 6, just two days before bitcoin hit its first record high of the year near $41,000. In due course, the price toppled to as low as $28,750 by January 21.
Factors used in the index’s measurement include current volatility, market volume, sentiment analysis on social media, market cap share, and Google trends data.
Read More: GOLDMAN SACHS: Buy these 13 stocks poised to benefit from surging commodity costs - including 2 set to soar by more than 40%
On Tuesday, Bitcoin hit a fresh high of $48,000 after Tesla’s $1.5 billion investment in the token, ethereum soared past $1,800 for the first time ever, and Dogecoin jumped 7% to $0.07.
While Tesla shareholders are reacting positively to the news, it remains to be seen how shareholders would react if a decline in bitcoin’s price negatively affects Tesla’s future earnings, said Jerry Klein, managing director at Treasury Partners.
Separately, billionaire Mike Novogratz said Monday that he thinks bitcoin will more than double to $100,000 by the end of 2021. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency analysts expect Tesla’s purchase to reassure retail and institutional investors about adding or holding cryptocurrencies.
Read More: A wealth management research chief shares 6 stock-market sectors to buy as the country reopens and the economy experiences its ‘best single year of GDP growth since 2000’
Ethereum gets bulk of crypto flows in latest week: CoinShares
TipRanks
How important are dividends to a stock investor’s profits? Speaking before the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) on October 15, 2007, investing guru John Bogle laid out the case: “Over the past 81 years… reinvested dividend income accounted for approximately 95 percent of the compound long-term return earned by the companies in the S&P 500. These stunning figures would seem to demand that mutual funds highlight the importance of dividend income.” So in other words, dividends are pretty important! Of course, right now the average stock on the S&P 500 is only paying about a 2% dividend yield, which isn’t a lot. If you want to do better than that, though, the REIT sector is a great place to begin your search for high-yield dividend stocks. REITs are companies that acquire, own, operate, and manage real estate portfolios, usually some combination of residential or commercial real properties, or their associated mortgage loans and mortgage-backed securities. Tax law requires that these companies return profits directly to shareholders, and most of them choose dividends as their vehicle of choice for compliance, resulting in frequent high dividend yields across the sector. The slowly ebbing COVID pandemic was hard on real estate managers, as tenants had trouble making rents and owners had trouble leasing vacant space. However, BTIG analyst Tim Hayes believes there are reasons to stay bullish on CRE properties specifically. “While we recognize the headwinds to commercial real estate (CRE) fundamentals and the potential risk to equity/earnings power, we believe there are several reasons to be constructive, especially with the sector trading at a discount to historical levels and offering attractive dividend yields at wide spreads to benchmark rates,” Hayes commented. Against this backdrop, we’ve opened up the TipRanks database to get the latest stats on Hayes’ CRE choices. These are stocks that the analyst initiated Buy ratings on, pointing out their high dividend yield. We are talking about at least 9% here. Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) The first dividend pick we are looking at is Ares Commercial Real Estate, a company focused on the commercial real estate mortgage sector. Ares boasts a diversified portfolio – featuring office space, apartments, hotels, and mixed-use properties – mainly across the Southeast and West. The company has over $2 billion invested in 49 separate loans, 95% of which are senior mortgage loans. At the end of October, the company released 3Q20 earnings (the last reported quarter), showing $22.4 million in total revenue, for a 13% year-over-year gain. The 45-cents earnings per common share was up 40% since the prior year. Furthermore, Ares closed a $667 million commercial real estate collateralized loan obligation, with firmed up funding on 23 senior loans. On the dividend front, Ares declared in December its 4Q20 dividend. The payment, at 33 cents per common share, was paid out on January 15 – and is fully covered by current income levels. At current rates, the dividend annualizes to $1.32 and gives an impressive yield of 10.50%. Among the bulls is Hayes, who wrote: “We believe shares of ACRE are unfairly discounted relative to other commercial mREITs given strong Ares sponsorship, a very healthy balance sheet, and limited exposure to at-risk assets.” In his view, this leaves the company “well positioned to face the headwinds from COVID-19.” In line with these comments, Hayes rates ACRE a Buy, and his $13.50 price target implies a 10% upside from current levels. (To watch Hayes’ track record, click here) Only one other analyst has posted a recent ACRE review, also rating the stock a Buy, which makes the analyst consensus here a Moderate Buy. Shares are priced at $12.28, and their $12.75 average price target suggests room for modest ~4% growth. (See ACRE stock analysis on TipRanks) KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (KREF) Next up we have KKR, which operates in the commercial real estate sector, with almost half of its holdings in the states of New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts. The company both owns and finances commercial properties; 83% of its activities are with apartment dwellings and office spaces in desirable urban locations. KKR’s quality can be seen in the company’s quarterly results. The liquidity position was strong – KKR reported $700.6 million available at the end of 3Q20, the last quarter reported. The 56-cent EPS was up 7% sequentially, and 36% year-over-year. Further evidence of KKR’s sound position came at the beginning of January, when the announced it had closed 7 new commercial loans in Q4, totaling $565.4 million. This level of activity is a clear sign that KKR is recovering from the pandemic-related economic turndown. The solid foundation put the company in position to continue its dividend – which has been kept reliable for four years now. The most recent declaration, made in December, was for a 43-cent per common share dividend that was paid out in mid-January. That rate gives an annual payment of $1.72 per common share, and a robust yield of 9.7%. Covering KREF, Hayes is most impressed by the company’s move back toward proactive loan origination, saying, “We view 4Q20 origination activity to be in line with pre-pandemic production, and demonstrates a shift from “defense” to “offense” as transaction activity has picked up and the capital markets remain accommodative. We expect increased capital deployment to support earnings power and dividend coverage, and could potentially warrant an increase in the dividend as the macroeconomic outlook improves.” To this end, Hayes gives KREF a Buy and sets a $19.50 price target that indicates ~6% growth from current levels. (To watch Hayes’ track record, click here) Wall Street has been keeping quiet on all things KREF, and the only other recent review also recommends a Buy. Put together, the stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating. Meanwhile, the average price target stands at 19.26 and implies a modest ~5% upside. (See KREF stock analysis on TipRanks) Starwood Property Trust (STWD) For the third stock on Hayes’ list of picks, we turn to Starwood, a commercial mortgage REIT with a varied portfolio of first mortgages and mezzanine loans, in the $50 million to $500 million range. The company operates in the US and Europe, boasts a $5.9 billion market cap, and has offices in New York, London, and San Francisco. Starwood’s high-end portfolio has brought it solid earnings, even during the ‘corona recession’ of 2020. The company recorded $152 million in GAAP earnings for 3Q20, coming out to 53 cents per share, for gains of 8% sequentially and 6% year-over-year. With that in the background, we can note the company’s dividend, which has been held steady at 48 cents per share for over two years. The last declaration was made in December, and the dividend was paid out on January 15. At the current rate, it annualizes to $1.92 and the yield is 9.23%. Once again, we’re looking at a stock that Hayes recommends to Buy. “We view STWD to be one of the few “blue chips” in the commercial mREIT sector given its size, liquidity, best-in-class management team, strong balance sheet, and diversified investment platform which has consistently generated stronger ROEs than peers. To that end, STWD is one of few commercial mREITs that neither restructured its liabilities with expensive rescue capital nor cut its dividend since the onset of COVID-19,” Hayes opined. Overall, there is little action on the Street heading STWD’s way right now, with only one other analyst chiming in with a view on the company’s prospects. An additional Buy rating means STWD qualifies as a Moderate Buy. However, the $21 average price target suggests shares will remain range bound for the foreseeable future. (See STWD stock analysis on TipRanks) To find good ideas for dividend stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights. Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
Crypto bill being finalised, will be sent to cabinet soon: Govt
MUMBAI: Minister of State for Finance Anurag Thakur on Tuesday, responding to a question in the Rajya Sabha, said the government is in the process of finalising a cryptocurrency bill which will be sent to the Union Cabinet soon.
In 2018, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had banned banks from processing transactions relating to cryptocurrency. However, in March last year, the Supreme Court had lifted the ban.
Also Read | India should worry about its public debt
“There is no doubt that the problem of bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies is escalating and the circular issued by the RBI also has limited impact. I would like to know from the honorable finance minister whether there is any proposal to bring in a bill to curb cryptocurrency in the country,” KC Ramamurthy, a Bharatiya Janata Party member of Parliament from Karnataka, had asked in the Rajya Sabha today.
In response to the question, Thakur said cryptocurrencies are neither currencies nor assets, placing them outside the direct regulatory ambit of RBI or the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). Hence, the government will bring a bill on the subject.
“Regulatory bodies like RBI and Sebi etc also don’t have a legal framework to directly regulate cryptocurrencies as they are neither currencies nor assets or securities or commodities issued by an identifiable user. The existing laws are inadequate to deal with the subject. The government had formed an inter-ministerial committee and the committee has given a report. Post that there was a meeting of the empowered technology group which happened earlier. The committee of secretaries which was chaired by the cabinet secretary has also its given their report. The bill is being finalised and will be sent to the cabinet soon. So we will be bringing the bill soon,” Thakur said.
Subscribe to Mint Newsletters * Enter a valid email * Thank you for subscribing to our newsletter.
Share Via