斷電、禁交易所，中國接連出招但比特幣似乎影響不大
儘管面臨中國政府多方圍剿，比特幣一度面臨重擊，但經過一個月，一切似乎和中國政府的盤算不盡相同。
為了讓中國數位人民幣業務順利開展，中國政府有計畫的一步步進攻比特幣，在多處政府連手斷電礦場後，比特幣全網算力腰斬，幣值也連續崩跌，許多人甚至就像中國政府期望的那樣，認為比特幣終究要走向泡沫化。
然而比特幣精巧的設計，反而讓中國政府無所施力。當比特幣價值增長，越來越多人覺得有利可圖而投入挖礦以獲取比特幣時，比特幣網路的挖礦難度也會隨之提升，迫使礦工必須要付出更多資源挖礦，這樣的機制有助於比特幣網路保持平衡。
相反地，當全網算力大幅下降，礦工大量退出時，比特幣的挖礦難度也會隨之下降，誘使更多人投入挖礦。在中國政府於 2021 年六月大舉斷電礦場後，比特幣全網算力腰斬，隨之而來的是難度迅速下降。
原先貢獻全網算力近 60% 的中國礦工退出後，比特幣挖礦難度在一週內下降了約 30%，簡單來說，雖然比特幣幣值因此下跌了 40%，但礦工要獲取比特幣所需付出的資源也下降了 30%。一來一往之間，中國政府斷電礦場的政策，反而是將原本由中國礦工壟斷的挖礦事業，拱手讓給海外礦工，而且消耗的電力還更少。
▲ 比特幣算力從谷底又慢慢回升。（ Source：Bitinfochart）
2021 年 5 月，比特幣全網算力來到歷史高峰 186MTH/s（每秒百萬雜湊值），在中國政府介入後，算力驟降至兩年來最低的 68MTH/s，然而經歷一個月，全球礦工們積極搶下中國讓出的機會，順勢搶購中國礦工便宜出售的礦機，目前算力已回升到 110MTH/s。
除了礦工，雖然中國政府明文禁止交易所，但中國用戶並未消失市場，幣安（Binance）與火幣（Huobi）依然提供中國用戶交易管道，想阻止這些去中心化交易所，光靠中國網路長城還不夠，恐怕還需要金融長城，禁止中國人民將人民幣兌換成他國法幣，才有可能禁絕交易所生存空間。
中國政府打壓無效，最有力的證據就是在過去一個月，這些與中國高度相關的亞洲交易所，包括幣安、火幣與 OKEx，依然是全球最活絡的加密貨幣交易所。相比之下，今年風光上市的美國交易所 Coinbase 交易量，都遠遠落後於這些中國政府認為不合法的交易所。
不可否認，中國政府對於挖礦和交易所的禁令，都對比特幣造成一定程度的衝擊，但短短不到兩個月，比特幣算力與幣值明顯恢復良好，超出許多人預期。過去兩週比特幣上漲超過 40%，幣值從跌破 3 萬美元到超過 4 萬美元，如今落在 38,994 美元，應該讓前陣子接手中國礦機的礦工樂不可支。
（首圖來源：Pixabay）
Tougher Rules Are Coming For Bitcoin And Other Cryptocurrencies. Here’s What To Know
Tougher Rules Are Coming For Bitcoin And Other Cryptocurrencies. Here’s What To Know
Enlarge this image toggle caption Ozan Kose/AFP via Getty Images Ozan Kose/AFP via Getty Images
For many people, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are part of an exciting and lucrative new financial frontier. But for the country’s top market watchdog, Gary Gensler, they seem “like the Wild West” – and he’s promising a crackdown.
The market for cryptocurrencies has ballooned. It is currently estimated to be worth about $2 trillion, thanks to the exploding popularity of Bitcoin and other virtual money like Dogecoin.
Amateur investors, particularly younger ones, have started buying and trading cryptocurrencies, attracted to the thrill of big returns. In the past year, the value of Bitcoin has risen 300%. And cryptocurrencies are increasingly also attractive to traditional investors.
But the cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile, and even as it becomes more mainstream, it continues to be popular among bad actors.
In recent months, hackers have demanded ransomware payments in Bitcoin, because it is easy to transfer and hard to trace. And there have been plenty of reports of thefts and heists at cryptocurrency exchanges in which cybercriminals have absconded with other people’s virtual holdings.
In a recent speech, Gensler, the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), denounced the lack of transparency and clear regulations, and promised the commission will take action to protect investors, which is a key part of the agency’s mission.
“Investors really aren’t getting the information to judge the risk, and understand the risk,” Gensler said. “If we don’t address the issues, I worry a lot of people will get hurt.”
The process is still at the very beginning, but here’s what to know.
So, who’s Gensler?
Gensler is an experienced regulator, who has worked on Capitol Hill and in the Treasury Department. When he ran the Commodity Futures Trading Commission during the Obama administration, he played a key role writing and implementing new rules that apply to a segment of the market called derivatives.
Gensler also knows a lot about cryptocurrencies. Most recently, he was a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, where he focused “on blockchain technology, digital currencies, financial technology, and public policy.” (One of his courses is available for free online.)
Enlarge this image toggle caption Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
How are cryptocurrencies regulated right now?
The market has developed so fast, regulations haven’t kept up. So policymakers have talked about reining in cryptocurrencies under a new regulatory framework for years. But so far, that hasn’t happened.
That leaves millions of people who trade cryptocurrencies and assets related to them without clearly defined rules of trading.
It has also complicated life for professional investors and companies that do business with cryptocurrencies. Tiffany J. Smith, a partner at the law firm WilmerHale, who runs a cryptocurrency regulatory practice, helps her clients mitigate risk.
“In the absence of, you know, definitive regulation that applies to crypto assets, we work with them to craft policies, procedures, and processes,” she says.
So what to expect first?
Clearer definitions is one of the most pressing issues.
Because cryptocurrencies are relatively new, there are not even universally agreed-upon definitions for some of the most basic terms. Can assets being traded on cryptocurrency exchanges be called securities, or are they something completely different? Is Bitcoin a commodity?
This goes beyond semantics; It can determine which regulator has the authority to regulate cryptocurrencies and related assets.
New York University Law School Professor Robert J. Jackson Jr., who used to be an SEC commissioner, says clarity is incredibly important.
“It’s past time for regulators to be clear about who is responsible for this, and that clarity will be beneficial to the market,” he says. “It will be beneficial to investors. It will even be beneficial to those members of Congress and the other public policymakers who want to know whom to ask, and who to hold accountable for what is going on in those markets.”
What else can we also expect earlier on?
Determining jurisdiction will be critical as well.
So far, the SEC and the CFTC have shared regulatory responsibilities. They have tried to police cryptocurrencies with laws that are already on the books, even though they were really written for other traditional kinds of assets like stocks or bonds.
Smith expects this is likely to continue until there are new, cryptocurrency-specific regulations, meaning regulators will continue to adapt current frameworks for the virtual currency market.
“We are going to see both the SEC and the CFTC using their current authorities to regulate the market as best they can,” says Smith.
But Gensler has called on Congress to give regulators the authority to write new rules.
He also wants more resources — more money and manpower — to regulate cryptocurrencies. For years, leaders of the SEC and the CFTC have complained that Congress hasn’t given them enough money for them to their jobs.
Are there any specific actions expected?
There will be new proposed regulations for sure; It’s just not clear in what form.
Gensler has not tipped his hand, and he did not spell out specific actions the SEC might be contemplating during his speech.
But in his speech, Gensler called for the need of “guardrails,” or actions intended to protect individual investors, for cryptocurrencies.
So the SEC is likely to take a closer look at aspects like the potential for market manipulation, determining basic rights for amateur investors and bringing in more transparency.
Congress is also proposing new rules. The Senate tucked in a provision to toughen tax enforcement on cryptocurrency players in its recent infrastructure bill, though the final fate remains uncertain given that the House has yet to weigh in.
Enlarge this image toggle caption Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
How does the industry approach regulation?
So far, professional investors say they would actually welcome new regulations – as long as they are not too stringent.
Robert Jackson, the former S.E.C. commissioner, argues regulation will widen the appeal of cryptocurrency assets.
“The market will be better off, because assuring investors that they are getting the kind of transparent pricing they are used to in American markets will encourage other investors to consider the possibility of investing in cryptocurrency,” he says.
But rules perceived as too stringent will inevitably spark fights. Lobbyists for the cryptocurrency industry tried to fight off Senate rules, calling the tax crackdown too broad.
How will new regulations change cryptocurrencies?
This is a fascinating existential question. Cryptocurrencies were borne of this iconoclastic desire for there to be assets untethered from governments and central banks. No one is really sure what will happen to it when that structure changes.
But many believe new regulations could help cryptocurrencies become a bigger part of our daily lives. For example, some companies, including AMC Theaters, have already announced they will accept cryptocurrencies as payment.
Market Wrap: Bitcoin Rallies Ahead of $50K Resistance
Cryptocurrencies are ending the week on a strong note as bitcoin broke above $48,000 for the first time since May. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is up about 4% over the past 24 hours and could face resistance near $50,000-$55,000 heading into the weekend.
On Thursday, Coinbase announced that it will purchase more than $500 million in cryptocurrencies to add to its holdings. The crypto exchange’s CEO, Brian Armstrong, also tweeted that Coinbase will invest 10% “of all profit going forward in crypto.”
The Coinbase announcement encouraged bitcoin buyers to return at the $45,000 support level. Bitcoin’s price jump also coincided with stabilization in equity markets after a pullback earlier this week.
Latest prices
Related: Bitcoin Breaks $48K for First Time Since May
Cryptocurrencies:
Traditional markets:
S&P 500: 4441.7, +0.81%
Gold: $1782.5, +0.2%
10-year Treasury yield closed at 1.259%, compared with 1.245% on Thursday.
Several analysts noted that extreme overbought conditions have unwound since April, which is providing support for the crypto rally.
“Right now, bitcoin and other cryptos have enjoyed technical support (as they were becoming mildly oversold),” Santiago Espinosa, a strategist at MRB Partners, wrote in an email to CoinDesk.
Related: Eurex to Launch Bitcoin ETN Futures to Meet ‘Significant Demand’
“At this juncture, some cryptos can continue to do well if policymakers neglect inflationary pressures and regulatory issues don’t become a mainstream problem,” Espinosa wrote.
Bitcoin correlations
Bitcoin’s negative correlation with gold intensified over the past few months as inflation expectations eased. Gold is down roughly 6% year to date, compared with a 65% gain in bitcoin over the same period.
The correlation between bitcoin and the iShares long-duration Treasury bond exchange-traded fund (TLT) briefly turned positive in July as the crypto selloff stabilized. Lately, bitcoin’s relief rally has coincided with a pickup in the 10-year Treasury bond yield, which stalled near the 1.40% resistance level.
Story continues
Growing futures volume
The growth in bitcoin futures volume relative to spot volume could reflect greater participation from sophisticated traders. “Over the last year, futures and perpetual swaps have become the most popular financial instruments in crypto,” tweeted Delphi Digital. Futures and perpetual futures account for over 60% of total daily bitcoin volume.
Perpetuals are gaining ground relative to spot market activity and are quickly becoming the prime source of price discovery, according to Delphi.
Bitcoin perpetual swaps are a type of derivative in cryptocurrency markets similar to futures contracts in traditional markets.
Delphi also noticed a similar trend in ether, although spot markets still play a larger role than futures markets with that crypto.
Miner positioning
The bitcoin miners’ positioning index (MPI) has flattened over the past two weeks. The MPI tracks whether miners are shifting their BTC positions higher or lower.
The sideways movement in MPI suggests that “profit-taking by miners is clearly slowing along with the stagnation of the price increase,” CryptoQuant wrote in a Friday blog post.
CryptoQuant expects a downward price adjustment in BTC before a decisive move above the $50,000 price level. A breakout in price could encourage miners to build positions.
Altcoin roundup
Cardano hits all-time high: Cardano (ADA), the native cryptocurrency powering the Cardano public blockchain, has hit a fresh all-time high and has surpassed Binance’s native token in total market capitalization, CoinDesk’s Sebastian Sinclair reports. It would appear the Alonzo upgrade is having a significant impact on investor sentiment. The upgrade seeks to usher in smart-contract functionality and address what critics have described as one of the network’s most glaring deficiencies.
Solana’s Luna Yield goes dark: Decentralized finance protocol Luna Yield has gone offline. Luna’s website and all of its social media accounts have been taken down, according to SolPad, an initial digital offering (IDO) platform for the Solana blockchain. Some are attributing the move offline to a rug pull. A rug pull occurs when the creators of a project take off with investors’ funds. While no official confirmation has been given, the move would mark the first rug pull of its kind on Solana. An anonymous source told CoinDesk over $6.7 million in assets had been taken. The amount has been verified by CoinDesk via the SOL scan block explorer.
OKEx establishes $10 million fund for GameFi projects: Crypto exchange OKEx said it is launching a $10 million fund to help develop GameFi, or “play-to-earn,” projects. The cash will come from the exchange’s $100 million OKEx BlockDream Ventures fund, which invests in blockchain projects, the company said. GameFi introduces financial mechanisms into video games, allowing users to make money by playing.
Relevant news:
Other markets
All digital assets on CoinDesk 20 ended up higher on Friday.
Notable winners of 21:00 UTC (4:00 p.m. ET):
polygon (MATIC) +7.63%
the Graph (GRT) +7.42%
algorand (ALGO) +7.27%
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