載舟覆舟！Crypto、PayPal走勢大相逕庭 比特幣是罪魁禍首
PayPal (PYPL-US) 和 Square (SQ-US) 都靠比特幣吸引顧客使用其 app 並維持其參與度，但兩家股價走勢卻大相逕庭，自從比特幣一個月前開始下跌以來，Square 股價就表現不佳。
如果加密貨幣持續熊市，兩家股價可能都會苦不堪言，但 Square 可能會面臨更多壓力，部分原因是該公司在散戶投資者中與比特幣的聯繫更為緊密。
兩種支付 app 都可輕鬆買賣和儲值加密貨幣，PayPal 在其 app 上提供數種加密貨幣，而 Square 只供應比特幣。這兩家作法像經紀人，賺取的是每筆交易的手續費和利潤。
來自加密貨幣的營收淨額並非其整體業務的大部分。MoffettNathanson 分析師 Lisa Ellis 指出，PayPal 今年營收約只因加密貨幣交易增加 2%，在營收總額 260 億美元中僅占 3 億至 6 億美元。
Square 第一季營收總額 51 億美元，其中比特幣營收 35 億美元。Square 的會計方式是：扣除購買比特幣的成本，在當季 9.64 億美元毛利總額中，只計入這些交易 7500 萬美元的毛利。
雖然加密貨幣的獲利非常微薄，但這兩家支付公司都將加密貨幣交易視為攏絡顧客並提高 app 參與度的一種手段。
Ellis 指出，「他們的加密貨幣用戶一天會多次打開 app 確認價格，這就讓公司有機會出售其他服務。」
Square 與加密貨幣聯繫更緊密，但部分原因是其創辦人兼執行長 Jack Dorsey 是加密貨幣狂粉，近日也曾在推特上表示，「比特幣使一切變得更好。」Square 過去幾季資產負債表上認列投資比特幣 2.2 億美元，現已對該投資進行減值。
加密貨幣低迷顯然對 Square 的影響更大。在過去的一個月中，Square 股價下跌約 17%，而 PayPal 股價僅下跌 4%。
但加密貨幣並非 Square 唯一苦痛來源，投資者逃離高倍數成長股的浪潮也重創 Square，反映投資者在價格上反映預期上升的通膨，這點會降低未來收益的現值。
根據未來 12 個月的估算，Square 現行股價是企業價值倍數 (EV/Ebitda) 的 113 倍，PayPal 則為 43 倍，對比其他同業如 Visa (V-US) 和 Mastercard (MA-US) 僅 27 倍至 30 倍。
Ellis 談到 PayPal 和 Square 時說，「他們是我兩家長期最愛的支付公司，但實際考慮上來說，機構投資者如果擔憂長期通膨，就會對這些高倍數股覺得反感。」
隨著比特幣價格的飆升，投資者也迷戀上這些股票，但水能載舟也會覆舟，如今比特幣和其他加密貨幣恐怕也是令他們憂心忡忡的原因之一。
週一美股普遍上漲，PayPal 週一上漲 2.58%，收 257.17 美元；Square 上漲 5.47%，收 210.95 美元。
What Changed in Crypto Markets While You Were Sleeping — June 1
BeInCrypto presents our daily morning roundup of crypto news and market changes that you might have missed while you were asleep.
Bitcoin update
The month of May was bearish for BTC, recording a loss of 35.59%. This was the second-highest monthly decrease ever recorded, only trailing that of November 2018, when the price decreased by 37%.
Technical indicators provide mixed readings.
In the two previous bull cycles, the RSI made two tops in the overbought territory prior to the end of the bull run. In the current phase, it has only made one top.
However, an RSI cross below 70 marked an end to the bull cycle in both 2013 and 2017 (red icons). Currently, the monthly RSI has just crossed below 70.
Altcoin movers
The total crypto market cap has regained 5% to $1.64 trillion today amid a slight recovery. At the time of press, every cryptocurrency in the top-50 is in the green on the day. The fifth-ranked Binance Coin (BNB) is less than $800 million from overtaking the #4 spot from Cardano (ADA).
Today’s biggest altcoin gainer is Kusama (KSM). The altcoin is trading up 14% on the day is up by 10% over the past week.
Helium (HNT) is the biggest altcoin loser, though it’s only down by 1.7%. At the time of press, HNT was only one of four cryptocurrencies in the top-100 that were experiencing a loss on the day.
In other crypto news
The 0x platform has expanded into the Polygon ecosystem to bring Layer 2 scaling to decentralized exchange liquidity aggregation.
Matter Labs has launched a testnet for the second iteration of its zkSync scaling solution, which has taken another step towards solving the Ethereum blockchain trilemma.
China’s crypto crackdown may be DC’s blueprint
China recently announced a major crackdown on cryptocurrency. The relative ease of use of existing currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum and their transparent operating code is apparently too much for the People’s Republic to allow its citizens to use. The development mirrors an apparent, but not as well-defined, push by Biden administration officials and members of the media to sink, or at least control, the crypto market. With recent public attention on the role of cryptocurrencies, there is a unique window for Washington to shape or strangle the rise of what it increasingly sees as a competitor and threat to its system of fiat currency.
The federal response shows a veneer of ostensible reasons for the government crackdown. At the start of the most recent crypto boom, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Janet Louise YellenWhat you need to know about the international tax talks Key inflation measure comes in at 0.6 percent, above expectations On the Money: Biden to propose trillion budget | Senate Republicans pitch 8 billion infrastructure offer | Biden faces dilemma on Trump steel tariffs MORE sounded the alarm about Bitcoin being “inefficient.” Rumors about the Securities and Exchange Commission investigating Tesla magnate Elon Musk Elon Reeve MuskOvernight fire at Tesla gigafactory site in Germany under investigation Bitcoin’s price plunge provides lesson for policymakers Schumer under pressure from Democrats, GOP on China bill MORE’s Dogecoin tweets were so persistent that Musk himself commented, saying such an investigation would be “awesome.” After all, as the Washington Post put it, crypto has an “Elon Musk problem.” The ability for investors or tech giants to utilize cryptocurrencies will be a lucrative opening for the government either to coerce their cooperation or to simply seize control. And if it cannot be controlled, it can be taxed.
Paralleling Ronald Reagan’s old quip — “If it moves, tax it” — lawmakers may have steep new crypto taxes in mind. One of the most persistent predictions of the past month is a potentially massive surcharge on any alternative currency gains. One rumor is that Yellen wants an 80 percent crypto tax. Even without such a new burden, President Biden Joe BidenBill that would mandate Asian-American history lessons in Illinois schools heads to governor’s desk Five things to know about the new spotlight on UFOs Biden shows little desire to reverse Trump’s Cuba policies MORE’s proposed tax changes will heavily impact online traders: Short-term holders of currencies such as Bitcoin may see their effective tax rate surge from 10 percent to 37 percent. Just this week, the Biden administration announced new regulations forcing taxpayers to report major crypto gains. As the White House put it, cryptocurrency “poses a significant detection problem by facilitating illegal activity broadly including tax evasion.”
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Meanwhile, the media are pushing a full-court press against the rise of crypto. Any number of recent news pieces shape a narrative that mining the coins is bad for the environment. However, in many ways crypto mining and distribution is far more efficient proportional to traditional finance. The recent increase in interest also sparked a wide-scale microchip shortage. Beyond the environmental and market constraints, media hype paints crypto as a tech gateway to several societal problems. Heck, one trope is that the free nature of crypto may not liberalize markets at all — but instead may be a Trojan horse for authoritarianism.
The New York Times pushed the idea that crypto is ultimately a safe haven for criminals; at least 13 percent of all crypto transactions happen in privacy wallets. Nothing would make regulators frustrated like currency transfers outside of the view and control of the federal government. It certainly doesn’t help that the proprietors of the Colonial Pipeline allegedly paid a $4.4 million ransom to hackers using Bitcoin. How long will it be until Greta Thunberg graces Stalinesque billboards, frowning and lecturing motorists that mining or holding crypto is killing the planet?
All of these moves are happening during a steep decline in crypto prices across the board. If there were ever an opening for government overreach, it would be now before crypto could pose an existential threat to fiat money. Regulators could argue that the massive price swings and use in criminal enterprises overshadow the leveling effect that cryptocurrencies have on the wider market. I have written about how Washington or the Federal Reserve may push its own superseding “FedCoin” concept and use it to effectively gut the existing crypto Wild West. All of these potentials tap into the worst impulses of D.C. and the Fed: they enact policies that weaken the U.S. dollar and restrict the ability for citizens to preserve wealth during inflationary periods. Ultimately, any set of laws or regulations would effectuate government control of global transactions.
What does this mean for the average crypto investor or dabbler? Perhaps not much in the short term. You might check your Robinhood account to see the daily price changes and not think much of the overall picture. However, the overarching effect is like a ratchet — government only takes more control and never moves in the other direction. A unique mixture of regulation, media frenzy and taxation could neuter the entire concept of a decentralized, free market system that Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, et. al. represent. When that day occurs, the ability for free citizens to hold value outside of a rapidly-inflating U.S. dollar disintegrates. Just as China fears the possibility that its citizens are able to get a taste of economic freedom, ours soon may be closing.
Kristin Tate is a libertarian writer and an analyst for Young Americans for Liberty. She is an author whose latest book is “How Do I Tax Thee? A Field Guide to the Great American Rip-Off.” Follow her on Twitter @KristinBTate.