載舟覆舟！Crypto、PayPal走勢大相逕庭 比特幣是罪魁禍首

載舟覆舟！Crypto、PayPal走勢大相逕庭 比特幣是罪魁禍首

PayPal (PYPL-US) 和 Square (SQ-US) 都靠比特幣吸引顧客使用其 app 並維持其參與度，但兩家股價走勢卻大相逕庭，自從比特幣一個月前開始下跌以來，Square 股價就表現不佳。

如果加密貨幣持續熊市，兩家股價可能都會苦不堪言，但 Square 可能會面臨更多壓力，部分原因是該公司在散戶投資者中與比特幣的聯繫更為緊密。

兩種支付 app 都可輕鬆買賣和儲值加密貨幣，PayPal 在其 app 上提供數種加密貨幣，而 Square 只供應比特幣。這兩家作法像經紀人，賺取的是每筆交易的手續費和利潤。

來自加密貨幣的營收淨額並非其整體業務的大部分。MoffettNathanson 分析師 Lisa Ellis 指出，PayPal 今年營收約只因加密貨幣交易增加 2%，在營收總額 260 億美元中僅占 3 億至 6 億美元。

Square 第一季營收總額 51 億美元，其中比特幣營收 35 億美元。Square 的會計方式是：扣除購買比特幣的成本，在當季 9.64 億美元毛利總額中，只計入這些交易 7500 萬美元的毛利。

雖然加密貨幣的獲利非常微薄，但這兩家支付公司都將加密貨幣交易視為攏絡顧客並提高 app 參與度的一種手段。

Ellis 指出，「他們的加密貨幣用戶一天會多次打開 app 確認價格，這就讓公司有機會出售其他服務。」

Square 與加密貨幣聯繫更緊密，但部分原因是其創辦人兼執行長 Jack Dorsey 是加密貨幣狂粉，近日也曾在推特上表示，「比特幣使一切變得更好。」Square 過去幾季資產負債表上認列投資比特幣 2.2 億美元，現已對該投資進行減值。

加密貨幣低迷顯然對 Square 的影響更大。在過去的一個月中，Square 股價下跌約 17%，而 PayPal 股價僅下跌 4%。

但加密貨幣並非 Square 唯一苦痛來源，投資者逃離高倍數成長股的浪潮也重創 Square，反映投資者在價格上反映預期上升的通膨，這點會降低未來收益的現值。

根據未來 12 個月的估算，Square 現行股價是企業價值倍數 (EV/Ebitda) 的 113 倍，PayPal 則為 43 倍，對比其他同業如 Visa (V-US) 和 Mastercard (MA-US) 僅 27 倍至 30 倍。

Ellis 談到 PayPal 和 Square 時說，「他們是我兩家長期最愛的支付公司，但實際考慮上來說，機構投資者如果擔憂長期通膨，就會對這些高倍數股覺得反感。」

隨著比特幣價格的飆升，投資者也迷戀上這些股票，但水能載舟也會覆舟，如今比特幣和其他加密貨幣恐怕也是令他們憂心忡忡的原因之一。

週一美股普遍上漲，PayPal 週一上漲 2.58%，收 257.17 美元；Square 上漲 5.47%，收 210.95 美元。

A ‘bloody crypto’ Memorial Day weekend? Some bitcoin bulls are dreading the long U.S. holiday break

Bullish investors in bitcoin aren’t all jazzed about the long U.S. Memorial Day holiday weekend ahead.

The sun, the fresh air, barbecues, the first major summer break, as more doses of COVID vaccines have hit the arms of Americans and those in other parts of the world. That setup appears to be taking a back seat to growing agita about bearishness that could further crystallize in the coming days for bitcoin BTCUSD, +3.53% and the broader crypto complex, including dogecoin DOGEUSD, +1.27% and Ether ETHUSD, +4.25% on the Ethereum blockchain.

“There’s a bloody crypto weekend coming,” Yves Lamoureux, president of macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co., told MarketWatch on Friday.

U.S. markets are closed Monday for Memorial Day but crypto markets are open 24 hours.

Lamoureux isn’t the only one harboring Memorial Day anxieties. Billionaire digital-asset entrepreneur Barry Silbert tweeted that he hopes that bitcoin takes the weekend off.

A report on CoinTelegraph speculated that bitcoin still could skid to $20,000 or below. The asset was most recently changing hands at $36,199, down over 7%, on CoinDesk. Bitcoin is up 24% year-to-date, but off 44% from its mid-April peak at $64,829.14.

Technical analyst at Katie Stockton, who runs Fairlead Strategies, told MarketWatch that bitcoin has benefited from short-term oversold conditions for the past couple of weeks, stabilizing near $34K support.

However, she said it is struggling with its 200-day moving average. Technical analysts use moving averages as gauges of long term and short-term momentum in an asset.

“My short-term gauges are pointing higher, but we have no convincing intermediate-term ‘buy’ signals,” Stockton said.

With this in mind the technical analyst said that support near $34,000 may be in jeopardy after more of a bounce, “so we have our eyes” on $27,000 “as a possible entry.”

Dogecoin prices, the popular meme crypto engineered in 2013 as a lighthearted riff off the proliferation of bitcoin alternatives, is changing hands at 31.6 cents, down over 6%. The altcoin is down nearly 60% from its all-time peak earlier in May. That said, the digital-asset is up 6,500% in the year to date.

The No. 2 crypto by market value, Ether, was down 9% and changing hands at $2,528, up nearly 240% thus far in 2021.

However volatile, the gains in crypto have mostly outstripped those for conventional assets (with the exception of meme stocks like AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC, -1.51% and GameStop Corp. GME, -12.64% ).

The Dow Jones Industrial DJIA, +0.19% was up 0.2% Friday and up about 13% in the year’s first six months or so. The S&P 500 index SPX, +0.08% was 0.1% higher on the session and looking at a year-to-date rise of about 12%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.09% was up 0.1% and headed for a gain of 6.7% so far this year. Gold futures GC00, +0.41% , meanwhile, were up 0.4% on the day and rising 0.6% year to date.

Lamoureux says that weekends for crypto have become notoriously treacherous “because liquidity dries up” and “if there is blood in the water sharks will pressure this lower and kill the weak competition that was in trouble.”

The investor and strategist said that leverage in the system also has played a role on amplifying moves in digital assets.

A report from Barrons.com written by Avi Salzman explained that there are essentially two bitcoin markets: one dominated by mainstream brokers, like Coinbase Global and Robinhood, and other dominated by investors using derivatives, people who care less about crypto prices rising and are more focused on making money based on directional moves in assets.

Volatility can breed volatility in such an environment, particularly if few investors are willing to step in the staunch the carnage as downturns takes hold.

There is no one narrative that accounts for the shift in momentum for bitcoin and its ilk. A number of reports have pegged it to comments from China to Japan, but the moves for crypto aren’t always synchronized with the headlines.

To be sure, the crypto community has historically viewed slides as buying opportunities, prime for long-term investors.

However, new investors may face challenges trying to stomach major dives.

Lamoureux said that one, big factor that should serve as support for bitcoin and mainstream crypto has been the ascent of stablecoins, such as Tether USDTUSD, -0.03% , whose price typically has a fiat currency peg and more consistent prices.

Stablecoins like Tether, tend to be seen as a gateway into crypto because they can ease transactactions in other crypto using stablecoins. Tether’s market value has been on a steady rise.

Environmental Concerns Temper Excitement About NFTs And The Crypto Ecosystem

The arrival of NFTs in the mainstream has brought a new crowd to cryptocurrency and its blockchain technology.

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are tied to files, like serial numbers, to show ownership. They’ve become popular among the arts and collectibles’ crowd.

The format exploded in sales during a high point of this spring’s digital markets. But projections differ wildly. One suggests NFT markets will double by October. Another says sales are cooling.

Not everyone is on board with NFTs, or the crypto-currency ecosystem. Some, who are just becoming aware of the format, are joining environmentalists and others who criticize the cryptoworld’s energy-consuming mining process.

The industry has critics from the finance side, as well. Critics say market upheavals in Bitcoin and other digital currencies mean the digital markets are full of hype, and show instability.

Still, Illinois State University finance professor Alan Cring is among many who believe in riding out the wild rides of the markets — even with last week’s crypto market crash. Cryptocurrencies have real staying power, he said.

Google Maps There are Bitcoin ATMs all around Bloomington-Normal.

And he’s not alone, although most stores around here don’t use cryptocurrency yet, crypto ATMs are turning up everywhere. A quick search of Google maps shows dozens of locations in the Twin Cities allow using a debit card to buy crypto.

“There will be ups and downs in this. But as it expands, and as more and more very powerful and wealthy institutions and other entities get involved in it, they’re not going to let this go down,”said Cring.

Many blame the crash on China’s altcoin crackdown, U.S. regulatory talk, and on Tesla founder Elon Musk — as an influencer. He has waffled on Bitcoin support, often blasting his views on social media.

To be clear, I strongly believe in crypto, but it can’t drive a massive increase in fossil fuel use, especially coal — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 13, 2021

The volatility also matters to digital artist Ryan Bliss of rural McLean County. Bliss said some NFT marketplaces have open access, meaning they could prey on artists unfamiliar with the upload process. Transaction fees sometimes are high, regardless if the artist ends up earning any profits.

“That’s what I worry about, that these community marketplaces are kind of taking advantage of the hype and selling shovels during the gold rush,” said Bliss.

Others say the biggest obstacle for cryptocurrency is also its strongest feature; it isn’t tied to a country. Illinois Wesleyan University finance professor Jaime Peters said decentralization — having the checks and balances performed by users as a whole — was core to the creators of industry giant Bitcoin.

That platform disrupted the financial world in 2009 when launched by Satoshi Nakamoto (the pseudonym of the person or group behind the launch.) In little over a decade, the landscape has evolved to many platforms.

“What’s behind Bitcoin? There’s nothing. There’s nothing there. There’s no central government manipulating it, which is true. But there’s also no central government supporting it,” said Peters.

These cryptocurrency platforms make the users as a collective responsible, rather than in individual company or government.

“There is nobody responsible for any problem happening. So, there’s no guarantee of protection,” echoed Shaoen Wu, State Farm Endowed Chair for ISU’s cybersecurity program. He’s in favor of more regulations for the industry.

Some investors like cryptocurrency’s decentralized model because of its low-interest rates and possible high yield, according to Jim Jones, executive director of ISU’s Katie School of Insurance and Financial Services.

He said cryptocurrency also can be a way to diversify portfolios, beyond the traditional options of gold, platinum, or silver. Typically you have those commodities, so when the world seems more risky, you have something to fall back on if big wars disrupt these real-life currencies. Maybe, cryptocurrencies could be that, he said.

Other investors don’t like the lack of consumer protection, and the fact criminals use the virtual cash to get non-traceable payoffs, said Jones.

The recent Colonial Pipeline cyberattack resulted in a ransom of $4.4 million dollars — in Bitcoin.

Mining’s environmental costs

Then there’s global climate change drawing other critics to the scene.

One of the biggest criticisms of the cryptocurrency world is its reliance on a proof-of-work model. Earlier this month, Tesla’s Musk joined the vocal critics, calling on the industry to move away from the model -that uses a ton of fossil fuels.

This spring, as NFTs gained a huge following, it also brought more people to consider the concerns about the carbon footprint from NFTs processing.

Bliss said many in the digital arts community paid attention when ArtStation announced plans to launch its own NFT platform. Less than a day later, they ditched the plan because of so much backlash.

And Bliss said on one of his Digital Blasphemy social media pages, a recent discussion on NFTs drew more than 250 comments. Most of the artists, and art fans, on the thread seemed to be collectively scratching their head about the new format. Many were concerned about the environmental costs.

ISU’s Cring also is a digital artist. He’s uploaded some of his art as NFTs. He said Bliss’ concerns about artists getting swept up in a “gold rush” mentality has some truth to it. So, he encourages fellow artists to research marketplaces before making the leap to creating NFTs. Some marketplaces only will charge “gas,” or transaction fees, if the NFT sells.

But it’s much more common that gas fees are part of the uploading process, regardless if an item sells. Those gas fees are an environmental concern.

A move to more energy-efficient models

Cryptocurrency’s infrastructure — created with Bitcoin’s launch — is blockchain. That’s a decentralized, digital ledger. Peters said think of the record keeping like this: First, we used a single bank, then a computer network and later a cloud. Now we have blockchain.

“It sits on thousands and thousands of computers,” she said. Instead of a single government backing the transaction, all the users do, creating a web of interconnected, duplicated records.

But that model’s original form, using a proof-of-work model, has drawn heavy criticism for its impact on the environment.

In proof-of-work, blockchain uses complex computer calculations to solve equations. In cryptocurrency models, closing a block results in earnings for miners. That’s what the gas fees are tied to.

That leads to an incentive to go and find the next coins. So you have more and more energy being used. Crypto’s growth has translated to mining warehouses filled with energy-guzzling computers.

Moving to proof-of-stake is the direction of most new platform developers for this reason. Various test nets are popping up, including Ethereum 2.0. And Cardano, EOS, and Tron are just a few. Another new kid in town is a cryptocurrency called Internet Computer. That token allows users to create apps, websites and other web-based services

Internet Computer: Blockchain Singularity

Some Central Illinois digital artists won’t make NFTs yet, partly because of this issue. But others say participating doesn’t prevent a focus on green solutions.

ISU creative technologist Rick Valentin, who released a set of NFTs this spring, said NFTs are just a drop in the bucket of the digital markets. Reducing carbon emissions drastically is imperative, but that includes emissions from oil and plastics, too, he said.

ISU physics professor David Marx, who teaches classes on energy and the environment, said after reading up on this topic, he’s not a fan. He said major digital currency blockchains only process a few transactions at a time— with an enormous electrical power drain.

Some estimates show Bitcoin and Ethereum — the latter which caters to NFTs — have a combined annual electricity usage equal to 9.4 million U.S. homes, according to Marx.

Jones calls Bitcoin the most damaging to the environment because of its sheer size.

The website Digiconomist has been at the forefront of tracking the impact, updating those figures regularly on its bitcoin energy consumption index. Signs show the energy usage continues to rise.

And Jones blame’s Musk’s celebrity move into Bitcoin — with a $1.5 billion investment — for drawing hordes to the platform, thus shooting the energy usage through the roof.

The billionaire’s influence could swing the pendulum toward greener cryptocurrency too, though. Last week after he spoke against Bitcoin’s proof-of-work model, more miners announced they’d be joining the Crypto Climate Accord.

The private-sector led movement — based on the Paris Climate Agreement — aims to create a cryptocurrency world with zero carbon emissions by 2030.

There are nearly 5,000 cryptocoins. The growing field is finding more identifying as green.

Cring said those new-developing cryptocurrencies are more often than not working toward more energy-friendly versions. But he said the tech world needs to think even further outside the box.

“We need to create blockchain on green energy, build a better blockchain,” he said. “Make it so the blockchain — every level — proofs its own ability to sustain itself,” he added. Tech company Devvio is exploring that kind of zero-emissions idea.

Not all blockchain is about money

The coin versions causing the climate damage are just one type of blockchain in use, said Shaoen Wu, ISU’s State Farm endowed chair of cybersecurity.

Blockchain just refers to a specific type of database — one that stores its information in blocks, that chain together. After a block closes, the information is locked there, and not able to be changed or erased. One growing popularity use for blockchains is decentralized apps, or Dapps for short.

Illinois Wesleyan University’s Jaime Peters notes industries such as accounting and finance like Blockchain’s permanent transactions, and records that can’t be altered or lost, adding State Farm Ilikes it, too.

Wu said blockchain technology will mature, but it’s a mystery how it will turn out.

“It will come somehow. But in what kind of format? That I don’t know,” he said.

When looking at cryptocurrency, blockchain and other developments, it’s important to remember technology in and of itself isn’t good or bad, said Wu. How people use it is key, he noted.

Wu explores ways to stop those bad actors in how cryptocurrency fits in with the fields of artificial intelligence and the newer field of Internet of Things. He said some cybersecurity faculty have focused research on the blockchain, and students in the program get the opportunity to see how their future roles in security will interact with that technology, too.

At one time people couldn’t imagine a tiny phone-slash-computer could fit in a pocket, or that we could see a friend’s face a continent away and have a live conversation. But that’s normal to us now.

Some see NFTs as disrupting how the art world does business. Some see cryptocurrency as disrupting the financial world. But Cring said blockchain’s arrival into our daily lives represents a much larger cultural moment.

“This is disruption. There’s not a continuity of experience that’s going to happen. This isn’t down the road. This is happening right now, all around us,” he said.

Cring said NFTs, and related technologies, are here to stay regardless of people’s opposition.

“Those of you who don’t want to do NFTs, go for it. You’re following your conscience, I admire that. However, it’s still going to happen,” he said.

But unfortunately, responsibility for the environment, responsibility to human rights and all of those things are secondary matters to business, according to the finance professor. Business will do what it must to create the newest products and knowledge. That’s very related to the digital world, he said.

“Unless the Internet dies, this isn’t going away,” he said.