加密貨幣大熱，比特幣上看 10 萬美元，以太幣目標 1 萬美元

加密貨幣大熱，比特幣上看 10 萬美元，以太幣目標 1 萬美元

Fundstrat 最新投資報告指出，比特幣目標將上看 10 萬美元，而以太幣也將成長到 1 萬美元新價位，整體加密貨幣市值將來到 5 兆美元。

上個月初，投資顧問機構 Fundstrat 認為，降溫回檔對於比特幣價格是健康的好事，經過這一個月，比特幣從歷史新高的 6.4 萬美元，一度跌破 5 萬美元，最近一週又慢慢站穩腳步。Fundstrat 認為，這一階段的整理已經完畢，下一階段將要迎接新的高峰。

▲ 幣圈一日，人間十年，比特幣的回檔來得又快又猛。（Source：CoinDesk）

當然，喊空話大家都會，講起來總是頭頭是道，因此必須先看一下過去的預測，來確認一下可信度。

▲ Fundstrat 過去一年半對比特幣價格的預估是藍線，黑線為實際價格。（Source：Fundstrat）

如果看 2020 年 3 月比特幣跌破 5 千美元時，1.6 萬美元的預測實在夠大膽，神奇的是去年第三季不斷調高目標價後，比特幣價格就一直追著目標價跑，這預測究竟準不準，就看各位自己判斷了。

機構大舉進場，只是還沒公開

比特幣 10 萬美元價位的大膽預測，有個主要支撐點在於，雖然 Facebook 並沒有買入，但大量機構正在進場，且我們知道，這些機構大部分都不會高調宣告買進多少比特幣。

據 Funstrat 理論，比特幣看漲的主要理由包括美元持續弱勢、國際地緣政治局勢緊張、PayPal 和 CoinBase 上市，不斷增加比特幣需求等，當然最主要的，還是資產配置避險需求，且已從個人進展為法人，讓交易量和流動性都持續增長。

機構進場的影響甚鉅，2020 年 Q2 基本上沒有任何機構買入比特幣，但到了 2021 年 Q1，機構交易量，已經佔據比特幣場外交易的 27%，成為場外交易中最大的主力，按照美國比特幣場外交易的總量推算，約有價值 85 億美元比特幣，是由機構交易。

這個數字如果扣掉特斯拉、MicroStrategy 等公開交易的消息，仍有很大數量交易未公開，換句話說，Fundstrat 認為，接下來幾週的財報裡，會有越來越多公司揭露購入比特幣的消息。這些消息，就是比特幣價格波動的燃料。

除了比特幣，漲勢凶猛的以太幣已突破歷史高點，且持續升空，Fundstrat 樂觀認為以太幣將會衝到 1.05 萬美元價位，成長幅度將超越比特幣。

以太幣價位以前就跟比特幣有緊密關係，但在 DeFi（去中心化金融）和其他區塊鏈應用不斷誕生後，以太幣流動性與實用度大幅增加，ETH 2.0 版本上線後，Fundstrat 認為以現在局勢來看，以太幣要站上 1 萬美元是遲早的事，如果按照模型估算，甚至可能高達 3 萬美元。

整體而言，Fundstrat 認為 2021 年加密貨幣的牛市將會持續，並有三個預測：

比特幣 10 萬美元。

以太幣 1.05 萬美元。

加密貨幣整體市值 5 兆美元。

最後還是要補一句，投資有風險，投資加密貨幣有超高風險，畢竟可沒有什麼熔斷、跌停、交易警示措施，一切都是市場決定，投資人務必要做好功課和心理準備再行動。

（首圖來源：shutterstock）

Bitcoin’s Waning Dominance Stirs Warning of Crypto Market Froth

Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) – Wall Street traders like Trey Griggs are finding a new lease on life in the $2.4 trillion crypto Wild West.After two decades in energy trading, the 51-year-old was lured by a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. colleague this February into a new world of market-making in digital currencies.Now he’s in fighting spirits – unleashing old-school finance tricks to exploit the industry’s rampant inefficiencies, volatility and downright weirdness.“All the fun that used to be had 30 years ago in the commodity markets and is no longer fun – that fun is now in crypto,” says the U.S. chief executive officer at GSR Markets in Houston.Griggs is among crypto newcomers deploying systematic strategies that are tried-and-tested in conventional asset classes – price arbitrage, futures trading, options writing – in a booming new corner of finance. As more mainstream investors get behind Bitcoin, boutique firms are joining the likes of Mike Novogratz in an ever-broadening crypto rally that keeps breaking records.For those who can stomach the price swings, the threat of exchange hacks and the byzantine market structure, complex fast-money trades are offering an alternative way to ride the digital mania.At GSR, the firm’s bread and butter is market-making, where traders pocket the spread between buy and sell orders.In stocks, that’s a nearly oligarchic business where the likes of Citadel Securities and Virtu Financial operate at lightning speed. In virtual currencies, where hundreds of exchanges offer free access at a slower pace, GSR can capitalize on the big volumes without splurging millions on high-frequency infrastructure.“Part of the tech we have is just to tell us did we actually trade or not, is this trade good or bad,” says GSR co-founder and former Goldman trader Richard Rosenblum. “We don’t want to be slower than our competitors, but it’s just not quite as much of the driver.”For every strategy in stocks, bonds or currencies rendered boring by low rates, regulation or market crowding, there’s a lucrative trade in a token lying across the hundreds of exchanges out there. Or so the thinking goes.Read More: Veterans of FX’s Wilder Days Are Loving Bitcoin’s VolatilityWhile crypto die-hards have made merry like this for years, the relentless rallies across the tokensphere this year are drawing more Wall Street converts seeking riches and new thrills.Take Mark Treinkman. After a career mostly at proprietary stock-trading shops like Chimera Securities, digital money is renewing his passion for quant trading.“I’ve been going through some of my old strategies and things that wouldn’t have worked in equities in decades have an edge in crypto still,” he says.A market-neutral strategy run by his $60 million firm BKCoin Capital gained 71% last year using investing styles that often include arbitraging different prices across exchanges and the gap between the spot and futures market.For a few minutes during trading on Wednesday, for example, the price of Ethereum Classic jumped well above $100 on the Coinbase exchange. The digital token was trading at less than $80 at other venues, offering an obvious opportunity for investors to make money simply by buying in one place and selling in another.It’s one of the best-known – albeit diminishing – discrepancies exploited by the likes of Alameda Research, a crypto trading firm filled with former traders from high-frequency shops. A famous example is the kimchi premium, the tendency for Bitcoin to trade higher in South Korea thanks to strong demand and the difficulty of moving money around to profit from the gap.With no one-stop prime broker to centralize trading books and offer clients leverage across venues, traders like Treinkman face plenty of challenges in their bid to arbitrage price gaps, but say the rewards are commensurate.And the opportunities pop up everywhere. For instance, when longer-dated futures in pretty much any asset class trade higher than the spot price – known as contango – the former almost always converges to the latter as the contracts mature.That’s popularized the crypto basis trade, where an investor goes long the spot rate and shorts the futures.When Bitcoin last peaked in mid-April, the December contracts were nearly 4% higher than August which were in turn about 2% higher than the spot reference rate, as speculators unleashed bets on rising prices. By contrast, the December oil contracts were trading beneath August’s on the same day, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg.“The crypto market is still dominated by retail investors who use excessive leverage and bid the premiums for futures,” said Nikita Fadeev, a fund manager at $60 million crypto unit at quant firm Fasanara Capital.Trades common in the industry also include short-term momentum and a form of statistical arbitrage, which bets on gaps between various tokens eventually closing like when Ethereum is surging but Bitcoin isn’t, Fadeev says.As assets grew, the fund recently appointed Laurent Marquis, the former co-head of derivatives at Citadel Securities, as chief risk officer, and Steve Mobbs, co-founder of quant fund Oxford Asset Management, as senior adviser.Over in Zug, Switzerland, St. Gotthard Fund Management has transformed from an old-school family office writing options on Swiss shares to a digital evangelist in its income strategy aiming to yield 8% a year. Just like in stocks, the investing style sells derivatives to take advantage of big demand to hedge price swings – which causes the volatility priced into options to be higher than what’s likely to come to pass.For option writers like St. Gotthard, that means the premiums are much juicier, though they also come with a higher risk of having to actually pay out, like an insurer during an earthquake.“The major difference at the end of the day is how much premium retail investors are willing to pay,” says chief investment officer Daniel Egger. “On the other hand of course we’ve written calls we wished we hadn’t in those moves up.”In fact, going long crypto over the past year has proved the easiest and most profitable way to tap into the boom. And for those choosing the systematic route, competition is rising.For example, in order to get an edge in its market-making strategy, BKCoin has recently installed servers at Asian crypto exchanges, a move known as co-location in the high-frequency world of stocks. It’s a sign the industry is growing up fast.“In any emerging market we’ve seen these inefficiencies decrease over time,” said George Zarya, founder of Bequant, a crypto prime brokerage that caters to systematic traders. “There are more professional players that come in.”(Updates first chart and market value in first paragraph. An earlier version corrected the seventh paragraph under the second chart to show Fasanara does not engage in momentum and stat-arb trades but says they are common in industry.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

Bitcoin vs ethereum vs dogecoin: Key things to know before choosing these cryptocurrencies

The value of dogecoin, the meme-inspired cryptocurrency whose price has been on a rise in the last month, plummeted after Tesla chief Elon Musk, hailed as the fogefather by netizens, acceded to calling the digital currency a ‘hustle’ on his Saturday Night Live debut.

After explaining the dogecoin repeatedly to the anchors of the show, Musk was asked — so, it’s hustle? To this, he responded saying — yeah it’s a hustle. Within 24 hours of the telecast of the show, the price of Dogecoin fell by over 29 percent according to CNBC.

Even as the value of dogecoin recorded a decline, cryptocurrency enthusiasts are still open to the idea of investing in digital currencies. Most of them have three options to select from — Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Dogecoin.

Here is a comparative analysis of the recent trend in the value of digital currencies:

Bitcoin

Created in 2009 by Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin is the most valuable currency at the time and its price has surged 89 percent to over $54,000 in 2021. It has a market cap of more than $1 trillion.

According to Coindesk, a digital currencies news platform, the current value of a Bitcoin is 58,854 (Rs 43,18,426).

Bitcoin, reached an all-time high of just under $65,000 in mid-April, but recently its value has fallen around 18 percent.

The ways to earn a Bitcoin include mining, investing in Bitcoin, exchange another currency for Bitcoin. This digital currency runs on blockchain technology.

Ethereum

Launched in 2015, Ether, Ethereum’s native token, is the second most valuable cryptocurrency at the time. Its price is up by 343% this year to just under $3,300.

Ethereum’s market cap as of May 8 was $410 billion, according to digital currency data tracker CoinGecko.com. It hit a record high of $3,610.04 on May 7.

Dogecoin

The digital currency Dogecoin was started inspired by a meme featuring a Shiba Inu dog in 2013. Dogecoin has now emerged as a tough competition to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Its price reached an all-time in April after a series of tweets by Elon Musk. This year alone, its value skyrocketed more than 7,800%, according to data from CoinDesk. There are 129 billion coins in circulation now.

According to a CNBC report, the meme-inspired cryptocurrency fell as much as 29.5 percent, dropping to 49 cents at one point during Elon Musk’s Saturday Night Live show debut. The price of Dogecoin began to rebound and reached 57 cents, down about 17 percent from the beginning of the show on May 9.

The market cap of Dogecoin is $93.38 billion