張冬凝觀點：Learned the Lesson, Paid the Price─帝國敗走阿富汗的歷史輪迴經驗-風傳媒

張冬凝觀點：Learned the Lesson, Paid the Price─帝國敗走阿富汗的歷史輪迴經驗-風傳媒

8月15日，阿富汗的塔利班的大軍，浩浩蕩蕩開入喀布爾，美國星條旗在美國大使館黯然降下。 坊間無數媒體報導美國的大撤退，和46年前的西貢大撤退相比較，可是英國帝國主義侵略阿富汗，也有戰敗灰頭灰臉的歷史，侵略阿富汗的同時，在中國發起了極不名譽的鴉片戰爭，…….

1840年1月16日，英國維多利亞女王在國會演說：「在中國發生的販售鴉片受阻事件，已經引起我國臣民與該國通商關係中斷，朕已極嚴重注意，並將繼續注意這一影響我國臣民利益與王室尊嚴的事件。」英國議會以271票對262票通過動議，出兵中國，（這是民主的的冷笑話？ 賣中國人鴉片，出兵打中國，是民主投票的結果）。於是鴉片戰爭爆發，鴉片戰爭不僅僅開啟了英國侵略中國的序幕，而且，也導使了世界列強來瓜分中國的百年屈辱。

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而幾乎在鴉片戰爭的同時，1839年，英國的東印度公司，占領了阿富汗的喀布爾。兇悍的阿富汗人，也開始展開了對英國帝國主義的鬥爭。英國的駐軍受到了阿富汗人民的反抗。 不但許多英軍陣亡，也有許多英國的士兵，在饑餓或者凍傷中而死。

第一次英阿戰役，英軍戰死了4500名士兵，同時有1.2萬名平民傷亡。在死亡的所謂的平民中，包括了許多英國士兵的眷屬，僕人，為英國人打工的工作人員。 歷史學家認為這是英國一大屈辱和災難，英國號稱日不落國，全世界都有殖民地，可是這一次阿富汗的戰役確實令英國人汗顏。

1842年英軍侵略阿富汗的軍隊，由2萬名士兵組成，伴隨著3.8萬名民工（工匠、擔架救護人員、廚師、裁縫、僕人，和本地的雇佣兵。以及印度和英國士兵的家眷）。 當然，大多數的士兵和民工，是在印度徵召的。

以那時候一個典型的英國步兵部隊來看，包括有700名英國軍官和士兵，加上3800名印度士兵。 所以基本上，英國人是拿印度人做炮灰。

在鴉片戰爭英國軍隊入侵中國的時候，印度士兵所占的比率，筆者無從查考。 可是英國在中國的租界裡，啟用了大量的印度人，他們為英國的主子虎作倀，所以上海人習慣的稱為印度阿三，當然印度阿三不是恭維，而是貶意。

在阿富汗最糟糕的英國軍事災難，不是英國唯一灰頭土臉的屈辱，在百年以後，當日本進攻新加坡的時候，英軍也夾著尾巴大敗而歸。雖然，英軍在新加坡被日本人打的倉皇而逃，可是苦難的卻是新加坡人民被日本侵略軍的大肆殺戮。

值得一提的是在緬甸的仁安羌， 為數一萬以上的英國軍隊被日軍圍困，幸虧在緬甸的遠征軍孫立人為英軍解圍，這段歷史是舉世人知的歷史，因此，孫立人將軍得到大英帝國勳章的殊榮。美國總統羅斯福（FDR）也頒發給孫立人豐功勳章。不知道死要面子的英國人，在他們的歷史書上， 有沒有提起這一段故事。

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Nvidia stock jumps as analysts say data-center growth ‘has some room to run’

Nvidia Corp. shares rallied after some initial sluggishness Thursday as more than half the analysts who cover the chip maker hiked their price targets following the company’s strong quarter and outlook based upon data-center gains.

Nvidia NVDA, +5.96% shares rallied more than 7% to hit an intraday high of $204.95, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX, +1.10% gained more than 1%, and the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.27% gained 0.4%. See Market Snapshot. Nvidia shares last closed at a split-adjusted record high of $206.99 back on July 6, and are up 68% over the past 12 months.

Late Wednesday, Nvidia forecast revenue of $6.66 billion to $6.94 billion, above Wall Street estimates at the time, and said that the “lion’s share” of the $500 million increase coming from data-center sales. That follows new records for total, gaming, and data-center sales that Nvidia reported for the quarter.

What many analysts picked up on is that demand for graphics processing units (GPUs) for cryptocurrency mining didn’t factor that much into the outlook. That came as a relief to analysts, who noted a lower crypto risk compared with 2018 when a fall in cryptocurrency values prompted many miners to sell their gaming card-powered rigs, flooding the market with second-hand cards.

Nvidia broke out sales of its Cryptocurrency Mining Processors, or CMPs, which are intended to divert mining demand away from GPUs made for gamers and not expected to be material in revenue gains.

Of the 41 analysts who cover Nvidia, 34 have buy ratings, five have hold ratings, and two have sell ratings. Of those, 24 analysts hiked their price targets and one lowered theirs, according to FactSet. That resulted in an average price target of $219.23, up from a previous $204.24.

Read: Nvidia earnings top Street view with record data-center, gaming revenue, but supply constraints still a concern

Data-center sales, however, took up much of the attention from analysts.

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon, who has an outperform rating on the stock and raised his price target to a $230 from $180, said that while “the company is having absolutely no trouble continuing to crush gaming,” Nvidia’s data-center story “still feels like it has some room to run.”

“The data-center story is really coming into its own now, with a sizable inflection in the near term and with prospect for the segment to equal, and potentially exceed, gaming in the not-too-distant future,” Rasgon said.

Evercore ISI analyst C.J. Muse, who has an outperform rating and a $250 price target, called data-center sales a “key for the stock.”

“Data Center revenues were guided to accelerate in 3Q off a very strong comp based on strength across hyperscale and vertical customers, training and inference applications, and compute and networking technologies – the democratization of AI workloads continues to be a front and center theme here, and one we see NVDA driving and benefiting from over for the foreseeable future,” Muse said.

Cowen analyst Matthew Ramsay, who has an outperform rating and raised his price target to $220.00 from $176.25, said that the data-center acceleration was “the most important takeaway,” from the earnings call.

“We expect sustainable data-center and gaming product cycles that should drive >50%+ organic growth for the company in F’2022,” Ramsay said.

Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis, who has a buy rating and raised his price target to $223 from $214, addressed the lower risk of another crypto-mining debacle.

“We think crypto-miners are 1/10th the gaming GPU sales vs 2018,” Lipacis said. “We continue to believe the risk of a crypto-driven gaming bust is low, and expect NVDA’s ecosystem moat and increasing software revenues to lead to additional upside surprises.”

Average Price For Gasoline In Texas Has Dropped Slightly Week-To-Week

NORTH TEXAS (CBSDFW.COM) — According to AAA Texas, the current statewide average price for a gallon of regular unleaded fuel is $2.84. That price is one cent less than from this day last week and 97-cents more per gallon than on this day last year.

Of the major metropolitan areas surveyed in Texas, drivers in El Paso are paying the most on average at $3.07 per gallon while drivers in San Antonio are paying the least at $2.71 per gallon.

Folks pulling up to the pump in Dallas are paying an average $2.87 per gallon. Drivers in Arlington and Fort Worth are saving a little less, paring $2.86 on average for a gallon of gas.

The national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded is $3.18, which is one cent less when compared to this day last week and $1.00 more than the price last year.

Market crude oil prices have been falling in recent days; however, drivers are unlikely to see much of a savings in the immediate, but could see relief this fall with the switchover to winter blend fuel.

“Demand for retail gasoline remains strong and much higher than last year, which is why pump prices are elevated from 2020,” said AAA Texas spokesperson Daniel Armbruster. “Industry analysts will be watching to see if decreasing demand numbers and less expensive crude oil will contribute to gas prices dropping by early next month.”

Drivers in Texas are paying the 3rd lowest gas price average in the country, according to AAA.