Gold is bullish medium-term, but in consolidation/correction within 9/2/21

Gold is bullish medium-term, but in consolidation/correction within 9/2/21

On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $905.5. The break above $1,347.0 projected this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum. We have attained $744.2. On 4/2 we left a bullish reversal below. We have seen $470.7. These are ON HOLD. We held major exhaustion at $2,071.6-93.2 with a $2,089.2 high and rolled over $412.8 into the macro bearish correction warned about. The trade below $2,043.6 has brought in $366.2. We held exhaustion above at with a $2,001.2 high and rolled over $323.8. The trade below $1,915.7 brought in $238.3 of pressure. The trade below $1,879.3 brought in $201.4 of pressure. On 6/14 we left a large bearish reversal above that warned of pressure for days/weeks—we have seen $192 of this so far. These are ON HOLD.

On a lower timeframe basis : We attained $94.8 of the higher trade warned about since the close of 8/10at $1,731.7.The decent trade above $1,803.6 negated the minor bearish reversal above and warned of renewed strength—we have attained $22.9.The decent trade above $1,805.1 (-.7 of a tic per/hour) warned of decent renewed strength. We have attained 21.8.If we fail back below where this comes in at $1,798.0 (-.7 of a tic per/hour starting at 8:20am) decently, look for decent pressure to come in. However, I NOTED: although we have broken above the bullish formation mentioned above, we also may be in the last stretch of structure from $1,677.9 upward, and there are two nearby key, significant possible exhaustion areas to contend with on the way up—at $1,827.0-32.6 and $1,862.2-67.6.If either hold, it could bring in a correction exceeding $35.We are currently holding the lower of these with a $1,826.5 high and have rolled over $23.1 so far. Decent trade below $1,795.4 (+.8 of a tic per/hour starting at 8:20am) will warn of decent pressure. CLICK HERE FOR FULL ARTICLE.

NOTE: this is just a small portion of the market calls I provide my clients twice daily in the Gold, Bitcoin, and Energy complex. ‘Decent penetrations’ are specific amounts and provided to clients daily as well. If you are interested, please feel free to reach out.

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Bitcoin 2 Scenarios For The Low Volume Environment

The second scenario

The 47K minor support breaks and price pulls back into the 44K area support. A bullish reversal in this area offers much better reward/risk while staying within the boundaries of the broader bullish structure. It is a higher probability trade and I would rather wait to see if Bitcoin can provide that opportunity.

I am evaluating this from the swing trade perspective. If you aren’t sure what that is, or just chasing profits because you are afraid of missing out, you really should not put any money to work at all. Emotionally driven investing is the same as gambling and you wiill always be at the mercy of the market.

Gold Price Forecast: US Retail Sales to confirm XAU/USD’s bullish reversal?

Risk-off mood-led DXY’s strength caps gold price at 21-DMA.

Flight to safety downs the yields while limiting gold’s pullback.

US Retail Sales hold the key for the next direction in gold price.

Gold price extended its previous week’s bullish momentum into Monday, rallying further to reach the highest levels since August 6 at $1789 amid a narrative of an intense flight to safety narrative. Investors s scoured for safe-havens such as US Treasuries, gold and the US dollar, especially after the Chinese activity data disappointed markets and reinforced the China slowdown concerns, heightening the risk-off trading. The rapid spread of the Delta covid variant globally and the Taliban recapturing power in Afghanistan over the weekend spooked markets. However, gold price eased slightly at the close amid the parallel dollar’s strength and new record highs on Wall Street.

On Tuesday’s trading so far, gold price is reversing the previous gains amid persistent upbeat tone seen around the US dollar, as investors turn cautious ahead of the critical US Retail Sales data due for release at 1230 GMT. The country’s consumer spending is likely to drop by 0.2% in July vs. 0.6% booked in June while the core figures are seen easing to 0.1% in the reported month. A bigger-than-expected fall in the American retail spending could add to the dour market mood, bolstering the greenback’s safe-haven appeal at gold’s expense. However, downbeat data could ease Fed’s tapering expectations, which could help limit gold’s pullback from weekly tops. Looming covid concerns will also lend support to gold buyers, as they await the FOMC minutes for further trading impetus.

Gold Price Chart - Technical outlook

Gold: Daily chart

As observed on the daily chart, gold price is facing stiff resistance at the 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1790, which aligns near the previous day’s high.

A sustained break above the latter is needed to confirm the bullish reversal from five-month lows of $1688.

If the bulls recapture the latter convincingly, then a test of the 50-DMA at $1800 could be inevitable.

Further up, the mildly bullish 100-DMA at $1806 could impede the advance towards the 200-DMA at $1813.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) lies flattish just below the midline, keeping gold sellers still hopeful.

Should the pullback pick up pace a drop towards Monday’s low of 1771 could be in the offing. The next relevant support is seen at the $1750 psychological level.