狗狗幣Dogecoin「一個玩笑」如何玩到市值突破天際？

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與Bitcoin一樣，「狗狗幣」（Dogecoin）也是加密貨幣的一種，但在近日成為了熱門焦點，皆因其市值暴升。自年初至今，狗狗幣由1美分不到的價格急增至0.7美元的高位，整體市值接近900億美元，比通用汽車公司市值還要高。

到底這隻「小狗」有什麼強大魅力？升值比搭火箭還快？

狗狗幣的起源

狗狗幣創始於2013年，由兩名軟件工程師Billy Markus與Jackson Palmer創設。一開始這不過是一個用作諷刺Bitcoin比特幣的笑話，其標誌是一幅攝自柴犬的頭像，名稱以Doge取代Dog，添一點可愛的感覺。

儘管在2014年狗狗幣曾嘗試過用作籌款及集資，用作慈善及宣傳活動，但狗狗幣一直沒有實際用途，不被視為付款手段，交易金額亦相當細小。價格至2021年，也不過維持在1美分以下。

馬斯克的不停吹棒

直至2021年，狗狗幣才開始再次受到注目，其中一個是在2021年初的GameStop事件。在GameStop股票被持續軋空，股價被瘋狂推高後，價值幾乎等同於零的狗狗幣成為網絡討論區的焦點。與GameStop一樣，當時有大量的網民聲言要把狗狗幣「衝上太空」、「帶到月球」。

這「帶到月球」的承諾，讓狗狗幣在1月價格急升5倍。但真正讓狗狗幣突破天際，是來自Tesla的CEO馬斯克（Elon Musk）的追棒。

馬斯克自1月多次在其個人Twitter上張貼有關狗狗幣的留言，包括雜誌的改圖、動畫電影《獅子王》的改圖、狗狗幣登月的改圖等等。持續的吹棒讓人開始意識到這不僅只是個玩笑。

直到4月，馬斯克重申對狗狗幣的濃厚興趣，並示意會在5月8日出席全國廣播公司（NBC）的深夜喜劇秀《周六夜現場》（Saturday Night Live）為狗狗幣助威。這舉動令狗狗幣瞬速爆升，幣值自4月中不停飆升至今。

升跌無時價值隨時蒸發

不過，狗狗幣與其他加密貨幣一樣，價格波動極大且無法預測。以Bitcoin為例，Bitcoin價格在自2020年尾持續暴漲，價值由年尾的2萬美元急升至今的接近6萬美元。但價錢已自3月開始在高位持續上落，面對電腦的「挖礦潮」出現疲累，誰也無法預料何時下挫，而且當發生時，往往是暴瀉。

加密貨幣交易公司Blockchain的研究負責人希勒曼（Garrick Hileman）警告，狗狗幣的價值隨時蒸發：「特別當這貨幣本來就是個玩笑。」警告投資者要對所有加密貨幣提高警覺。

Dogecoin Bolstered by Coinbase Addition as Musk Tweets Continue

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(Bloomberg) – Dogecoin, the Shiba Inu-themed cryptocurrency started as a joke in 2013, outperformed top rivals in the week as it launched on the Coinbase exchange.

While the biggest cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ether were up 6.2% and 14.9% over the past seven days respectively, Dogecoin advanced 24% over the same period as of 7:50 a.m. in London, according to CoinGecko pricing. While Coinbase said weeks ago that it planned to add Dogecoin, the announcement that it now supports the meme-based token on Coinbase.com and in the Coinbase Android and iOS apps means Dogecoin is more accessible and continuing to establish itself.

“This Dogecoin bounce comes during a period where the cryptoverse is seeing a consolidation of positions,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp., said in a note Wednesday where he cited the Coinbase development as bolstering the price. “So we should not be surprised if this recent surge fizzles – or if it makes another attempt at the moon.”

Dogecoin is up more than 14,000% in the past year, in a run-up that’s surprised even the crypto community and gives it the sixth-biggest market value. Its gains have been cited as an example of the power of retail traders, the attraction of memes and a case study in what can happen in a world where the Federal Reserve and other central banks are practicing relatively loose monetary policy to try to overcome Covid-19’s economic damage.

And it wouldn’t be Dogecoin without a little social-media action to liven things up. There’s little denying the Twitter pronouncements of Tesla Inc. founder Elon Musk have moved the prices of Bitcoin and Dogecoin multiple times. Many in the Bitcoin community have been dismayed by the world’s third-richest man of late, for reasons including his U-turn on accepting Bitcoin as payment and a tweet alluding to a breakup with the biggest cryptocurrency. But some Dogecoin fans are actively courting him.

“If anyone has a problem with Elon they’ll have to go through the #DogeArmy first,” one Twitter user quipped.

Story continues

And Billy Markus, a co-creator of Dogecoin who is no longer coding on the project, joked that he bought a new Tesla with Dogecoin – with photos that showed a toy-sized replica vehicle. Musk “liked” the tweet.

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Is Dogecoin A Good Investment? Expert Suggests Avoiding Controversial Cryptocurrency Market

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(CBS Detroit) — Dogecoin started as a joke, but it is real money now. At least the meme cryptocurrency is worth real money. Exactly how much real money varies from day to day, or even hour to hour. The cryptocurrency started 2021 valued at a penny, and peaked in early May at $.74. Currently the sixth biggest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization (the market value of all the Dogecoin available), it closed Thursday at $.40. Trading most days is fairly volatile.

What Is Dogecoin?

Dogecoin is a kind of cryptocurrency, like Bitcoin, Etherium and many others. According to David Kirsch, Associate Professor of Management and Entrepreneurship for the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business, “cryptocurrencies are basically pieces of software that are algorithmically controlled or algorithmically defined. And the functioning of the algorithm establishes value for the holder of the code. There’s fiat currency, and then there’s math currency. With fiat currency, a state establishes something, and says this token, this shell, or piece of paper has value because we say so. And cryptocurrency is basically a different way of establishing an item of value that can be exchanged electronically.”

“The value accrues,” Kirsch continues, “because people have confidence that they’ll be able to use the little piece of software that establishes their kind of ownership to exchange it with somebody else for something of value. That it’s kind of [a] standardized way of exchanging this piece of code, which is exclusive and difficult to replicate and secure.”

As for Dogecoin specifically, the website describes it as “an open source peer-to-peer digital currency.” Like many other cryptocurrencies, it is supported by an online community of people who can use it to pay for things in the online world. Most physical stores don’t take Dogecoin as payment. In fact, only about 1,300 businesses have come to accept this cryptocurrency as payment since its inception. But, in March, the Dallas Mavericks started allowing it as payment for tickets and merchandise. Dogecoin was recently used to buy a plot of land in Rhode Island. And Geometric Energy Corporation is paying the Elon Musk-owned company SpaceX in the cryptocurrency to launch a satellite to the moon.

Of course, Dogecoin holders can exchange it for dollars on the open market, which can then be used to buy things. And a wider community of investors has come to see it as a way to build wealth. That seems to be it’s main purpose, as a tool of speculation.

“As a currency of exchange, most cryptocurrencies are relatively limited,” said Kirsch. “Some people have seen them as a store of value, as a kind of investment vehicle to hold value.”

Volatility makes all cryptocurrency a risky place to store money. A large drop in the value of Dogecoin translates to a large drop in the number of dollars it can be exchanged for. Of course that formula works the other way, making it an attractive option for speculation, at least for some. To make this a little more tangible, suppose someone spent $1,000 on Dogecoin when it cost a penny each. Those 100,000 Dogecoins would be worth $40,000 as of Thursday. Suppose instead someone spent $1,000 on Dogecoin in early May, when it was worth $.74 each. Those 1,351 Dogecoins would be worth about $540 as of Thursday.

Dogecoin suffers from another problem that doesn’t affect many other cryptocurrencies. There is no cap to the number of Dogecoins that can exist. Bitcoin, on the other hand, will be capped at 21 million total units. About 18.7 million already exist. A potentially infinite supply of Dogecoin means each individual coin can lose value as the overall number of coins grows.

How Does Dogecoin Work?

The cryptocurrency runs on what’s called “blockchain” technology. That’s essentially a digital transaction book to log each exchange of the currency. The ledger is distributed across the computers of the various users, with each user possessing a complete, exact copy. Because of the decentralized and synchronized network, no single entity controls the data. That makes the digital transaction book safe.

Updates are frequent and require a lot of computing power to maintain. This is where miners come in. A miner processes the transactions and logs them in the Dogecoin blockchain known as Dogechain. More to the point, their computer uses specialized software to confirm the transactions by solving complicated math equations. The miner(s) who processes the transactions the fastest, meaning the miner(s) with the most computing power, receives some Dogecoin as payment for their efforts.

Dogecoin can also be purchased through trading apps like Robinhood and, as of Thursday, digital exchanges like Coinbase. It is kept in a digital wallet. That wallet could be offered through a digital exchange. It could also be an app on a mobile device or even a separate hard drive. The coins are secured by a password.

How Did Dogecoin Get So Popular?

Dogecoin had its origins back in 2013 as a prank that everyone took seriously. According to the story, Jackson Palmer, a marketing professional for a tech company, Tweeted about a made-up cryptocurrency called “Dogecoin.” The name he created used a popular internet meme of the time (a picture of a Shiba Inu onto which people pasted the dog’s inner monolog) to poke fun at the proliferation of Bitcoin knockoffs. Given the cryptocurrency craze, the tweet attracted lots of attention.

A software engineer named Billy Markus used the source code from Bitcoin to put together the code for the Dogecoin cryptocurrency. And when he set it live, Dogecoin took off. It bounced around various internet threads and gained popularity on Reddit as a way to tip people to say thanks. A community grew around the cryptocurrency, using it as a charitable way to create a little more good in the world. They supported the 2014 Jamaican bobsled team as well as multiple NASCAR drivers. But soon the monetary value of Dogecoin became the community’s chief concern.

The price never topped a penny until earlier this year. In late January, with popularity boiling over on Reddit, the meme-based cryptocurrency jumped into the top 10 in terms of market capitalization. Elon Musk showed his support for Dogecoin with a Vogue-inspired Tweet.

Snoop Dogg also joined the conversation.

Devotees on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum, which launched GameStop stock into the stratosphere, sought to propel Dogecoin “to the moon” as well. Robinhood, a popular trading app among young investors, already allowed users to buy Dogecoin and other cryptocurrencies. But trading took off in the first part of the year. Approximately 9.5 million customers traded cryptocurrencies on the app in the first quarter, up from 1.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2020. The ongoing COVID pandemic is likely one of the main reasons why. With fewer outlets for spending, plus two stimulus checks since January, many Americans had more money on hand. The personal savings rate was 27.6 percent in March of 2021. Further, the stimulus portion of that savings was essentially a windfall for anyone who stayed employed during the pandemic. In other words, upwards of $2,000 per person was somewhat easier to part with than hard-earned savings.

With the internet buzzing about Dogecoin, the price soared. Trading on the cryptocurrency reached such a frenzy that it crashed trading on Robinhood in mid-April, and then again in early May. Soon after the second crash, it reached a market capitalization of over $88 billion. (For reference, oil company BP also has a market cap of around $88 billion.)

Dogecoin and other cryptocurrencies have fallen significantly since that May peak. Musk calling it a “hustle” on Saturday Night Live didn’t help. But the billionaire continues to be a strong supporter, even suggesting that Tesla might accept it as payment rather than Bitcoin. That boosted the price a little.

Musk isn’t the only set of deep pockets interested in cryptocurrency. The waters are filled with whales who own large stashes of Dogecoin and have incentive to manipulate the price. One person or entity owned about 28 percent of all the Dogecoin available as recently as February, which translates to billions of dollars. As of early May, 100 people or entities owned about 67 percent of the Dogecoin out there.

“Elon Musk is just a visible whale,” said Kirsch. “We know there are lots of invisible whales in these markets who are actively manipulating price movements, which tells me tells me that these are not yet mature financial markets, and are instead places where small people are going to be screwed.”

In early June, Coinbase opened up Dogecoin trading to its retail investors. The exchange is offering a $1.2 million giveaway in a promotion open to anyone who buys $100 of the cryptocurrency. The Coinbase announcement hasn’t had a noticeable effect on the price of Dogecoin.

Is The Cryptocurrency Bubble Bursting?

Cryptocurrencies lost around $1 billion in market capitalization one day a couple weeks ago. That happened soon after China, home of the world’s second-largest economy, warned banks and businesses not to transact in digital currencies. Jerome Powel, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, recently cautioned against the risks of cryptocurrencies. Transactions worth at least $10,000 will soon require the IRS to be notified.

Does this mean the bubble is bursting?

There are many indications that the answer is yes. As noted above, Bitcoin, Dogecoin and other cryptocurrencies have very limited usefulness as currency, at least in the legal sense. The major cryptocurrencies process a very small fraction of the number of transactions that Mastercard and Visa process, yet they’re market value is higher than that of the two biggest credit card companies. Anybody with a little bit of coding knowledge can develop their own cryptocurrency. And anybody with a big enough Twitter megaphone can create or destroy billions of dollars of value with a couple Tweets. Scrutiny is increasing in America and abroad. With Dogecoin specifically, every new coin dilutes the value of every existing coin. The list of Dogecoin’s faults — indeed, any cryptocurrency’s faults — goes on.

But at least one bubble expert isn’t so sure. “It’s hard to conclude definitively this is a bubble,” says Kirsch, who is also the co-author of Bubbles and Crashes: The Boom and Bust of Technological Innovation. “Because it feels to me like the entire cryptocurrency market has been part speculation and part alternative currency narrative from the start. My theory of bubbles is about narratives, about objects of speculation, about uncertainty, about novice investors. And cryptocurrency has all four of my kind of necessary elements for a bubble. So part of it is I have that theory of a bubble in mind because I wrote a book about it. I looked at a bunch of technologies where there was financial speculation and saw these elements emerge as common predictors of a financial bubble. In a way, cryptocurrency is just purely that. The kind of underlying purpose is still to be determined, outside of illegal use. So we know that cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, is very popular for ransoms or cyber attacks, for drug dealing and various activities that people want to undertake without being regulated by a state entity for those activities. It feels to me much more likely than what we’re seeing right now in crypto markets is a reflection of the mania that we are seeing elsewhere in society as we emerge from the pandemic.”

Originally published on Thursday, May 24 at 4:39 p.m. ET.

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