比特幣正在融化！分析師估還有下跌空間，跟美股開始「有連動關係」

比特幣正在融化！分析師估還有下跌空間，跟美股開始「有連動關係」

特斯拉執行長馬斯克（Elon Musk）暗示，公司已出售或可能出售剩下的比特幣，導致比特幣一度跌破 44,000 美元。根據《marketwatch》報導，比特幣跟美股近期開始有更緊密的連動關係，Mott Capital 分析師 Michael Kramer 認為，比特幣「正在融化」，還可能有進一步下跌的空間。

截至今日下午 4 點 53 分，比特幣在 24 小時下跌 6.84%，來到 45,324.46 美元。雖然比特幣被認為跟股票或任何傳統資產沒什麼高度關聯，但一些分析人士認為，在最近的股市動盪中，投資人在疫情後試圖找出最有效的投資策略，使得加密貨幣與部分市場有更緊密的關係。

Mott Capital 分析師 Michael Kramer 指出，美股正處於過渡期，而比特幣近期崩跌，可能代表市場風險偏好正在轉變，可能是看跌方向。上週波動劇烈，市場的看漲情緒開始放緩，市場中與比特幣價格最接近的是小型資本化股票，例如羅素 2000 的成分股。

上週美股受到通膨影響，道瓊、標普500、那斯達克指數皆創下 2 月 26 日以來最大單週跌幅，那指也創下自 2019 年 8 月 23 日以來最長的連續四週跌勢。

比特幣也從 4 月中的最高點 64,829.14 美元狂瀉 28%。對此 Kramer 直言，「比特幣正在融化」，認為其資產還可能有進一步下跌的空間。

一些技術分析師預估，比特幣可能會跌到 42,000 美元；Fairlead Strategies 創辦人 Katie Stockton 則認為，比特幣的支撐點應該落在上週末的最低點、略高於 43,800 美元區位附近。

儘管比特幣走勢動盪，一些分析師認為，股票漲勢會延續到 2021 年底。Fundstrat Global Advisors 的創辦人 Tom Lee 預估，標普 500 將從目前水平再上漲 7%至 8%，目標訂在 4,400 點。

Tom Lee 指出，「市場上週試圖崩跌，但失敗了」，這次狀況跟去年經濟下滑有相似之處，不過這次市場無法引起足夠的恐慌，來推動進一步下跌；相反地，上週末的反彈有機會延續到這週，「我認為股票仍有機會在 6 月 30 日之前創新高。」

（首圖來源：Unsplash）

延伸閱讀：

【Bitcoin】馬斯克「單字」回應Tesla賣比特幣分析 累比特幣累插兩成、馬斯克即澄清

How much lower could Bitcoin go?

Some Bitcoin watchers on Wall Street see more losses ahead for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

A cohort of chart watchers on Wall Street say Bitcoin’s deepest selloff since crypto mania kicked off last year looks set to intensify.

Evercore ISI’s Rich Ross reckons prices are destined to fall back to the 200-day moving average, following a path of other speculative assets, which would put Bitcoin back at $40,000 compared with just under $44,000 currently.

Others are watching for a pattern of “lower highs and lower lows” and say Elon Musk’s unpredictable tweets will keep traditional investors on the sidelines. There’s also speculation that gold is starting to draw money away from crypto.

“The momentum has now quite decisively shifted to the bears,” said Tallbacken Capital Advisors LLC Chief Executive Officer Michael Purves, who correctly predicted last month that Bitcoin would decline.

Bitcoin is still up more than 300% since last May, but the speed of the recent rout has shaken crypto’s new believers and cast doubt on the idea that it’s maturing into a more stable asset class. Prices have fallen about 30% from intraday highs in April, when prices topped $64,000.

Purves says the next important level for Bitcoin is $42,000 because it roughly equates to where the rally topped out in January and a 50% retracement from December 2020 levels. If Bitcoin breaks through that level, more losses are ahead, but if prices can hold above the support, then it might be the beginning of a new rally, Purves predicted.

“A pullback was bound to happen,” said Justin Chuh, a senior trader at Wave Financial, which invests in crypto assets. “This is healthy, but I think we all wish this didn’t happen.”

The counterpoint comes from Fundstrat Global Advisors. In a note on Monday, strategist David Grider laid out nine reasons explaining why he thinks prices are primed to bounce, including high levels of short interest and the fact that corrections like this tend to be normal in a crypto bull market.

“We don’t know the future, but we think odds are we’re close to the bottom and don’t want investors to ‘panic sell’ here,” Grider wrote.

Anchorage Digital Bank, which runs a digital asset platform for institutional investors, said it’s seeing clients maintain or increase crypto holdings. “They’re looking at this as good entry point,” said Diogo Monica, president and co-founder of the California-based bank.

Other chart watchers are turning to ETFs as a proxy for where the crypto market is headed. SentimenTrader’s Dean Christians is monitoring a blockchain-focused fund called Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF.

“I would watch the breakdown pivot point at $48.75,” he wrote in a note Monday. “If it fails to recover above that level, take note.”

(Updates prices.)