研調：比特幣日均成交量約相當英鎊在外流通量

研調：比特幣日均成交量約相當英鎊在外流通量

過去一週比特幣再度發光發熱，不僅上週末漲破 6 萬美元大關，還獲得多家大型銀行力挺。

財經網站 MarketWatch 報導，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）表示，將為高淨值客戶提供「比特幣基金」，能把比特幣納入資產配置。

另一家大型金融機構德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）分析師暨哈佛經濟學家拉布爾（Marion Laboure）也發研究報告，加入看好比特幣的行列。她預期比特幣不會曇花一現，只是行情波動將是常態。

拉布爾表示，比特幣市值達 1 兆美元，「重要性不容忽略」，預料在基金經理人和企業持續買進推波助瀾下，比特幣價格可能持續走高。

但拉布爾指出，真正值得一辯的是：比特幣是否單憑價值節節看漲，就能自成一種資產類別？她認為，比特幣的流動性低，是一大障礙。她舉例以蘋果比較，2020 年蘋果股票成交量總計 400 億股，相當於在外流通總股數 270%；相較去年總計成交 2,800 萬個的比特幣，相當於總流通量 150%。

拉布爾指出，流動性低加劇比特幣的行情波動，只要額外幾筆大額買進或賣出，就足以「顯著衝擊供需平衡」。

拉布爾認為，未來比特幣價值仍會劇烈波動，隨民眾相信它值多少而起起伏伏，這就是所謂的「仙子效應」（Tinkerbell Effect）。她解釋，「仙子效應」是經濟術語，以童話故事《小飛俠彼得潘》（Peter Pan）的小仙子（Tinkerbell）命名，描述某件事若愈多人相信，就愈可能實現，一如彼得潘宣稱小仙子真的存在，正因孩童深信不疑。

從這角度來看，拉布爾認為，比特幣其實就像電動車大廠特斯拉（Tesla），因「必須把潛能轉化為成果，才支撐得起價值主張」。撐起特斯拉市值的，是汽車工業大舉轉向電動車的趨勢，以及特斯拉勢必成為市場領導者的假設。

拉布爾估計，比特幣目前總值約相當於日圓流通總值 102%、歐元流通總直值 65%、美元流通總值 53%，和英鎊流通總值 904%，但比特幣日均成交量約只相當英鎊在外流通量 0.06%。

她的結論是，這款加密幣若要保持價值不墜，有個條件必須到位：跨國境數位貨幣成為大勢所趨，比特幣必須引領這股趨勢，成為未來的支付工具。

（本文由 MoneyDJ新聞 授權轉載；首圖來源：shutterstock）

Bitcoin Could Boom 430% but Ethereum May Still Steal its Thunder

Bitcoin believers may have new reason to rejoice following the stimulus checks, but Ethereum has use cases on its side.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID Relief Bill has passed congress and stimulus checks are soon to be distributed. Early signs indicate recipients are ready to buy Bitcoin.

A survey by Mizuho Securities showed that out of 235 participants who expect to receive stimulus checks from the COVID Relief Bill, 10% are interested in investing in Bitcoin. It’s a small sample size, but according to the survey investing in Bitcoin was a more popular response than investing in traditional stocks.

If that kind of runaway popularity doesn’t move you in itself, consider that it could translate into $40 billion dollars running like a river directly from Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package into Bitcoin.

In the same week, Bank of America strategists suggested to Bloomberg that the price of BTC can be moved 1% for just $93 million.

Bank of America strategists said in a note to Bloomberg on Wednesday: “Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to increased dollar demand. We estimate a net inflow into Bitcoin of just $93 million would result in price appreciation of 1%, while the similar figure for gold would be closer to $2 billion or 20 times higher. In contrast, the same analysis for the 20-year-plus Treasuries shows that multibillion money flows do not have a significant impact on price, pointing to the much larger and stable nature of the U.S. Treasuries markets,”

If you take the survey and projections on face value, you could surmise Bitcoin prices will be moved by over 430% by the influx of $40,000,000 flowing in from invested U.S. COVID Relief money.

It seems reasonable to expect the 12 month Bitcoin bull run to continue, making it the crypto success story of 2021, right?

DeFi Could Steal Bitcoin’s Thunder

Before the Bitcoin bull run, DeFi was a strong competitor as the most dominant story in crypto. BTC’s new price heights have made the world’s most famous cryptocurrency again the center of attention. Bitcoin may always be the star of the cryptoworld and certainly has seen wide popularity and acceptance as a store of value, but Ethereum’s fortunes have generally kept pace with and possibly exceeded Bitcoin since the end of last year.

Story continues

Since December 2020, Bitcoin has risen from over $28,000 to more than $58,000 (up roughly 207%). Ethereum has traveled from more than $746 to over $1800 (up roughly %240).

This week, Bank of America published a report titled “Bitcoin’s Dirty Little Secrets”. Excerpts from the report are unflattering to the world’s most famous cryptocurrency.

Some of the statements coming from the report include:

“The main argument for Bitcoin is not diversification, stable returns, or inflation protection, but sheer appreciation…”

“There is no good reason to own BTC unless you see prices going up…”

And they point out Bitcoin’s environmental impact is not desirable, stating: “we calculate that a $1bn dollar inflow into Bitcoin is equal to 1.2mn cars driven over the course of a year or 12.7mn barrels of oil.”

They go on to extol the virtues of Ethereum, stating in the report: “Bitcoin is the most talked about cryptocurrency but Ethereum [the blockchain] has more features, including being more flexible in its hosting of decentralized finance (DeFi) than the Bitcoin blockchain.”

“DeFi does, however, show the opportunity which (distributed ledger technology) offers to finance. We believe that one of the best differences against being disintermediated by DeFi would be mainstream finance grasping these opportunities.”

The Hopes and Fears of DeFi…

As a digital currency, Bitcoin is simply designed with a more limited range of use cases compared to Ethereum which has smart contract capabilities. Arguably, Ethereum is the needed sequel to Bitcoin’s success. But how will their performances compare in 2021?

“Bitcoin is the asset of choice for investors looking for a store of value investment characteristics in the cryptocurrency market. Success then is an ongoing price appreciation for this asset. And appreciate it will as long as investors continue to believe in the future of blockchain and cryptocurrencies. Ethereum, on the other hand, is not only a cryptocurrency. It is a network that supports smart contracts, Dapps (decentralized applications), and Defi (decentralized finance) projects. Investors that are looking to invest in up-and-coming tech should pay extra attention to this crypto asset. Over 41 Billion dollars is currently locked in DeFi projects on Ethereum blockchain compared with 4 Billion only 8 months ago. That’s what success continues to look like for Ethereum this year as well – ongoing expansion and innovation,” Tally Greenberg, Head of Business Development at Allnodes said.

Phase 0 of Ethereum 2.0 – known as “Serenity” – launched on December 1, 2020. The hope for this upgrade to the Ethereum network is meant to address the needs for speed, efficiency, and scalability.

“BTC is unlikely to be dethroned as the leading cryptocurrency, but the growth shown on the Ethereum blockchain is hard to bet against. They will naturally be compared ‘against’ one another although this makes little sense from a functional point of view since each is vying for separate and mutually beneficial use-cases. BTC’s ‘digital gold’ narrative is straightforward which is beneficial for attracting new users who may be intimidated by the apparently more complex and dynamically evolving ETH narrative,” Jason Peckham, Analyst at Invictus Capital said.

Ethereum 2.0 is moving from Proof of Stake to Proof of Work but is still essentially in test stages. It remains to be seen whether it will handle the need for speed to support the DeFi range of use cases.

“To me, Ethereum looks very attractive for long-term purchases, since it has a much greater technical potential for application than Bitcoin. The Ethereum blockchain programmability offers incredible growth opportunities. Bitcoin with its limited emission is rather a tool for saving and paying. Ethereum, in turn, is a tool for real usage of blockchain technology in third-party projects,” Dyanis Zabauski, CEO of Coinmatics said.

But nevermind the actual real-world uses – can Ethereum compete with Bitcoin’s price performance?

“I think it’s highly likely that ETH will beat BTC in terms of price performance in 2021… Ethereum has not fully realized the benefit from the growing popularity of DeFi services and NFTs. The exploding NFT market will directly benefit the value of ETH and I think that ETH has room to grow until its price encompasses the current excitement around NFTs,” Noam Levenson cryptocurrency writer and founder of Narrow Straight Writing.

Some experts point to lagging performance as a reason to keep an eye on Ethereum, as we may see much more movement in 2021.

“From a relative performance standpoint, ETH the second-biggest cryptocurrency is lagging Bitcoin up only 20% from it’s All-Time Highs vs Bitcoin 175%. In previous cycles, we have seen ETH catch up to BTC growth when BTC begins to correct because the profits taken from BTC are cycled into altcoins. Because ETH is one to two cycles back from BTC in its growth cycle it makes sense that return on the laggard would outperform the larger market cap of BTC from here,” Jake Wujastyk Chief Market Analyst at TrendSpider said.

Until Ethereum 2.0 is a known quantity, there will be doubts about its ability to meet the already tremendous need for bandwidth to support transactions.

“Ethereum might beat Bitcoin in terms of percentage gain this year. So far in 2021, ETH has increased by value by nearly 150%, while bitcoin has gone up around 90%. However, it is unlikely that ETH will take over in terms of market capitalization because bitcoin is the cryptocurrency with the most people behind it in terms of adoption and use. Many view bitcoin as digital gold and major corporations and institutional investors are adding it to their balance sheets. Ethereum is unscalable in its current iteration and acts more as a platform for decentralized applications than a store of value” Ben Weiss, president and COO of CoinFlip said.

The launch of an improved Ethereum network is a testament to the strength of the project – but also represents change. Change conveys risk – while Bitcoin is simple, immutable, and constantly rising in value.

“I am not yet convinced DeFi is as groundbreaking as its followers deem it to be. The idea of yield farming sounds a great deal like smart contract hot potato with investors jumping from project to project, hoping they aren’t the last ones to hold the bag,” Don Wyper, COO at DigitalMint said.

Institutional investors have been key to driving the value of Bitcoin over the past 12 months. Will those same traditional investing giants turn their attention to Ethereum?

“Eventually some institutional investors will acquire ETH in order to expand their crypto exposure, while others will trade the recently launched CME ETH futures (interest is still low with volumes 8% of the CME BTC Futures). Others will acquire ETH in order to utilize and experiment with some of the applications, particularly in DeFi. However, I don’t see much movement comparable to bitcoin in the near term,” Jason Lau, COO at OKCoin said.

Conclusion

As many respondents pointed out, comparisons between Ethereum and Bitcoin make sense from an investor point of view, but the comparisons don’t go much further than that.

“BTC and ETH are different: BTC is a currency token while the ETH is a utility token. If mainstream institutional investors get into ETH, it would mean that mainstream institutions validate not only the current value of ETH, but also the Ethereum ecosystem as a whole. We have not seen signs of mainstream institutions being involved in Ethereum’s applications. So, in order for institutional investors to get on board, it would take more time and market education throughout 2021 and beyond,” Haohan Xu, CEO of Apifiny said

It may take a shift in mainstream understanding – or even a mild learning curve – to get traditional investors who have tried the familiar Bitcoin to understand the power of DeFi, but it seems the mighty bull run market is raising all ships in the cryptoworld and institutional investors are already getting on board.

“Institutional investors are already getting on board with Ethereum. Just recently, Grayscale, the world’s largest Crypto asset manager, purchased more Ethereum than Bitcoin for a change. Chinese public firm Meitu also grabbed 15K of Ether not too long ago. Galaxy Digital’s ETH funds raised 32 Million in less than a month. The launch of Ethereum Futures on the CME, the launch of Canadian ETH ETFs, and we’re just scratching the surface here… I anticipate a further surge of institutional investments in Ethereum. This is just the beginning,” Greenberg said.

Cover image modified from photo by Mater Miliano from Pixabay

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© 2021 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

Bitcoin Price Chart Shows Bull Fatigue as Analyst Sees ‘Rising Wedge’

National Review

In 1999, Milton Friedman, the world’s foremost monetary luminary, foretold the rise of cryptocurrencies. Here’s what he had to say: I think that the Internet is going to be one of the major forces for reducing the role of government. The one thing that’s missing, but that will soon be developed, is a reliable e-cash method whereby on the Internet you can transfer funds from A to B without A knowing B or B knowing A. The way I can take a $20 bill, hand it over to you, and then there’s no record of where it came from. You may get that without knowing who I am. That kind of thing will develop on the Internet and that will make it even easier for people using the Internet. Of course, it has its negative side. It means the gangsters, the people who are engaged in illegal transactions, will also have an easier way to carry on their business. More than 20 years after Friedman’s prediction, the speculative mania surrounding cryptocurrencies is breathtaking. Just consider that Bitcoin’s price has skyrocketed 1,030 percent in the past twelve months and that its market capitalization has soared to $1.1 trillion, which makes it the world’s sixth-most valuable asset. With Elon Musk’s announcement that Tesla would purchase $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin in order to start “accepting bitcoin as a form of payment for [its] products in the near future,” the frequency of Bitcoin’s mentions on Google and its trading volume have risen sharply and in lockstep in 2021. Putting aside Bitcoin’s meteoric ascent in price, which has been punctuated by dramatic booms and busts, it is important to note that its designation as a “cryptocurrency” is a misnomer. A currency is characterized by four fundamental features. To qualify, it must be unit of account, must be a standard for deferred payment, must be a store of value, and must serve as a medium of exchange. Just how does Bitcoin stack up when it comes to these currency criteria? Bitcoin’s volatility turns out to be its Achilles’ heel. In 2020, Bitcoin’s annualized daily volatility was an astonishing 67 percent. If we look at the most important price in the world, the USD–euro exchange rate, and the world’s international currency, the U.S. dollar, the dollar’s annualized daily volatility in 2020 was only 7.8 percent. Since Bitcoin’s source code predetermines that Bitcoin’s supply will ultimately be fixed and totally inelastic, all market adjustments can take place only via price changes, not quantity changes. As a result, it is destined to be inherently subject to extreme price volatility. This means that Bitcoin will never serve as a reliable unit of account. You will rarely see items with Bitcoin price tags attached. You will also never see deferred contracts (contracts under which payment is made under a long-term credit arrangement) written in Bitcoin. Can you imagine someone writing a mortgage contract denominated in Bitcoin? Bitcoin’s volatility also renders it unattractive for most corporations to hold in lieu of cash reserves. Indeed, Bitcoin, which is considered an intangible (something, incidentally, that brings inconsistent and opaque accounting treatment in its wake), throws considerable risk on to balance sheets. In short, it is not a reliable store of value. It’s no surprise, therefore, that most corporations are unwilling to take on the risks associated with holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets. A recent survey found that roughly 5 percent of finance executives said that “they planned to hold bitcoin as a corporate asset in 2021” and “84 percent of respondents said they did not plan to ever hold bitcoin as a corporate asset,” citing volatility as their foremost concern. Furthermore, very few items are purchased with Bitcoin. Items are not only not priced in Bitcoin, but the transaction costs associated with Bitcoin are excessively high for both buyers and sellers. Bitcoin clearly falls short of meeting the four standard criteria to be designated as a currency. Accordingly, it should not be viewed as a currency but as a speculative asset with a fundamental value of zero. That being said, Bitcoin does have an objective market price. That price is determined by speculators operating in a whirlpool in which they are purchasing an asset with very little or no utility in the hope of selling it later at a higher price: greater fools and all that. If Bitcoin’s failure to meet the currency criteria isn’t bad enough, it even falls short of the aims of its architect (or architects), the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto, who envisioned that Bitcoin would function as a currency. Nakamoto anticipated that Bitcoin would address three problems with “government” money, each of which Bitcoin fails to solve. First, Nakamoto asserted that Bitcoin would overcome the lack of trust associated with fiat monies issued by central banks. But Bitcoin, which is fiat, has a history defined by fraud and breaches of trust, illustrated by the Mt. Gox scandal. Second, Nakamoto designed Bitcoin to address privacy concerns. However, about 95 percent of all cryptocurrency trading occurs on centralized exchanges. These exchanges often collect identifying information from their users and have a history of failing to protect such information. Finally, Nakamoto complained of the “massive overhead costs” of commercial bank transactions that “make micropayments impossible.” Yet, due to technological limitations and fees charged by exchanges and crypto-payment providers, Bitcoin is impractical and too costly to facilitate most transactions. For example, popular cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase charges a “base rate for all purchase and sale transactions in the US [of] 4%.” Beyond Bitcoin, there is ample potential for innovation in private money, specifically a price-stable digital asset. Several attempts have been made, such as the popular stablecoin Tether and Facebook’s Libra, but these efforts have been fraught with problems. Tether claims to be “100% backed by our reserves.” However, in 2021 an investigation by New York Attorney General Letitia James found that “Tether’s claims that its virtual currency was fully backed by U.S. dollars at all times was a lie.” Additionally, as reported by Bloomberg, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists including Josh Younger and Joyce Chang wrote in a report that Tether has “famously not produced an independent audit and has claimed in court filings that they need not maintain full backing.” This is less than reassuring. Libra failed to establish itself in its original form, and, renamed and restructured, is supposed to be relaunched in the near future. Thanks to ease of entry and competition, inferior cryptocurrency products will struggle, in the end, to survive. Just look at Bitcoin. Although its market capitalization has skyrocketed, Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market has fallen from 94 percent in April 2013 to 61 percent today. Eventually, Bitcoin’s current limited use value will likely be eclipsed by the offerings of superior challengers. So, just what might an effective competitor look like? It would be in the form of a private cryptocurrency board. A traditional currency board issues a currency that is freely convertible at an absolutely fixed exchange rate with a foreign anchor currency or gold. Therefore, under a currency-board arrangement, there are no capital controls. The currency issued by a currency board is backed 100 percent with anchor-currency reserves. So, with a currency board, its currency is simply a clone of its anchor currency. Currency boards have existed in about 70 countries, and none have failed — including the North Russian currency board installed on November 11, 1918, during the Russian Civil War. What all currency boards — past and present — have in common is that they are public institutions, but there is no requirement that currency boards be publicly owned. A private cryptocurrency board would be the ideal institutional arrangement for the crypto world. For example, its home offices and reserves could be located in Switzerland, a safe-haven financial center, and it could be governed under Swiss law. It could be operated with a small staff, as is the case with all traditional currency boards. As for its anchor, it could be a currency issued by a central bank, or gold, which is not issued by a sovereign. Furthermore, given its digital nature, the balance-sheet information of a private cryptocurrency board, including its reserves, could be publicly available and audited by independent auditors on a regular basis. With such a system, the crypto world would finally have a product that is more than just a speculative house of cards. Steve H. Hanke is a professor of applied economics at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. He is a senior fellow and the director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C. Robert J. Simon is chief of the economic intelligence group at the Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.