When Will Your Country Recover from the Pandemic?

When Will Your Country Recover from the Pandemic?

What started as a novel virus in China quickly became a sweeping disease that shut down the world and put a 1.5 year halt on the global economy.

But while some countries’ economies are already back to normal, others are lagging far behind.

COVID-19 Recovery Timelines, by OECD Country

This chart using data from the OECD anticipates when countries will economically recover from the global pandemic, based on getting back to pre-pandemic levels of GDP per capita.

Note: The categorization of ‘advanced’ or ‘emerging’ economy was determined by OECD standards.

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The Leaders of the Pack

At the top, China and the U.S. are recovering at breakneck speed. In fact, recovering is the wrong word for China, as they reached pre-pandemic GDP per capita levels just after Q2’2020.

On the other end, some countries are looking at years—not months—when it comes to their recovery date. Saudi Arabia isn’t expected to recover until after Q1’2024, and Argentina is estimated to have an even slower recovery, occurring only after Q2’2026.

Country Recovery Economy 🇧🇪 Belgium After Q4 2022 Advanced 🇸🇪 Sweden After Q4 2021 Advanced 🇸🇰 Slovakia After Q4 2021 Advanced 🇳🇿 New Zealand After Q4 2021 Advanced 🇩🇪 Germany After Q4 2021 Advanced 🇪🇪 Estonia After Q4 2021 Advanced 🇩🇰 Denmark After Q4 2021 Advanced 🇮🇸 Iceland After Q3 2023 Advanced 🇸🇮 Slovenia After Q3 2022 Advanced 🇵🇹 Portugal After Q3 2022 Advanced 🇫🇷 France After Q3 2022 Advanced 🇦🇹 Austria After Q3 2022 Advanced 🇵🇱 Poland After Q3 2021 Advanced 🇳🇴 Norway After Q3 2021 Advanced 🇱🇺 Luxembourg After Q3 2021 Advanced 🇱🇻 Latvia After Q3 2021 Advanced 🇯🇵 Japan After Q3 2021 Advanced 🇫🇮 Finland After Q3 2021 Advanced 🇪🇸 Spain After Q2 2023 Advanced 🇬🇧 United Kingdom After Q2 2022 Advanced 🇳🇱 Netherlands After Q2 2022 Advanced 🇮🇹 Italy After Q2 2022 Advanced 🇬🇷 Greece After Q2 2022 Advanced 🇨🇿 Czech Republic After Q2 2022 Advanced 🇨🇦 Canada After Q2 2022 Advanced 🇺🇸 United States After Q2 2021 Advanced 🇰🇷 South Korea After Q2 2021 Advanced 🇮🇪 Ireland After Q2 2021 Advanced 🇨🇭 Switzerland After Q1 2022 Advanced 🇮🇱 Israel After Q1 2022 Advanced 🇭🇺 Hungary After Q1 2022 Advanced 🇦🇺 Australia After Q1 2022 Advanced 🇱🇹 Lithuania After Q1 2021 Advanced 🇿🇦 South Africa After Q4 2022 Emerging 🇮🇩 Indonesia After Q4 2021 Emerging 🇮🇳 India After Q4 2021 Emerging 🇲🇽 Mexico After Q3 2023 Emerging 🇨🇴 Colombia After Q3 2022 Emerging 🇧🇷 Brazil After Q3 2022 Emerging 🇨🇱 Chile After Q3 2021 Emerging 🇹🇷 Turkey After Q3 2020 Emerging 🇦🇷 Argentina After Q2 2026 Emerging 🇨🇷 Costa Rica After Q2 2023 Emerging 🇷🇺 Russia After Q2 2021 Emerging 🇨🇳 China After Q2 2020 Emerging 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia After Q1 2024 Emerging

Most countries will hit pre-pandemic levels of GDP per capita by the end of 2022. The slowest recovering advanced economies—Iceland and Spain—aren’t expected to bounce back until 2023.

Four emerging economies are speeding ahead, and are predicted to get back on their feet by the end of this year or slightly later (if they haven’t already):

🇷🇺 Russia : after Q2’2021

after Q2’2021 🇨🇱 Chile : after Q3’2021

after Q3’2021 🇮🇳 India : after Q4’2021

after Q4’2021 🇮🇩 Indonesia: after Q4’2021

However, no recovery is guaranteed, and many countries will continue face setbacks as waves of COVID-19 variants hit—India, for example, was battling its biggest wave as recently as May 2021.

Trailing Behind

Why are some countries recovering faster than others? One factor seems to be vaccination rates.

Country Doses Administered per 100 People Total Doses Administered Percent of Population Fully Vaccinated World 47 3,573,004,544 – 🇦🇪 U.A.E. 166 16,194,526 69% 🇲🇹 Malta 143 718,418 71% 🇧🇭 Bahrain 136 2,224,916 63% 🇮🇸 Iceland 129 466,434 70% 🇺🇾 Uruguay 129 4,458,394 58% 🇨🇱 Chile 128 24,248,545 60% 🇦🇼 Aruba 125 133,421 59% 🇶🇦 Qatar 123 3,474,944 56% 🇬🇧 United Kingdom 122 81,438,892 53% Mongolia 121 3,912,996 56% Israel 121 10,959,633 58% Canada 118 44,293,659 48% Singapore 113 6,440,735 42% Belgium 111 12,700,513 46% Curaçao 108 170,857 51% Denmark 108 6,266,892 43% Maldives 106 561,748 46% Netherlands 105 18,273,238 43% Spain 105 49,585,197 49% Hungary 104 10,155,466 54% Portugal 103 10,579,259 44% Luxembourg 102 633,974 41% Germany 102 84,989,850 45% China 102 1,426,347,000 – United States 101 336,054,953 48% Ireland 101 4,995,719 44% Austria 100 8,866,474 44% Italy 99 59,966,908 41% Switzerland 95 8,133,486 42% France 93 62,321,355 40% Sweden 93 9,536,164 36% Finland 90 4,951,925 26% Norway 89 4,785,937 31% Greece 89 9,560,592 42% Lithuania 88 2,459,605 42% Czech Republic 88 9,346,397 38% Poland 85 32,413,199 42% Dominican Rep. 84 9,066,151 34% Estonia 79 1,049,416 34% Serbia 78 5,415,434 38% Slovenia 78 1,626,072 36% Cyprus 76 916,819 35% Turkey 74 61,747,399 23% Slovakia 73 4,003,639 33% Mauritius 71 901,530 24% Croatia 71 2,870,866 32% Macau 69 434,726 27% Cuba 69 7,767,601 17% Latvia 66 1,264,433 33% Bhutan 64 487,060 0.02% Saudi Arabia 63 21,556,314 9.2% Hong Kong 62 4,638,908 26% Barbados 59 168,955 25% Argentina 58 26,134,815 11% Brazil 57 120,726,752 16% Kuwait 56 2,375,455 22% Morocco 56 20,584,812 26% Cambodia 56 9242925 24% El Salvador 53 3,422,214 20% Japan 53 66,714,528 20% Costa Rica 52 2,606,791 16% French Polynesia 51 141,523 24% Montenegro 49 304,655 23% Fiji 47 419,998 8% Romania 47 9,092,141 24% Guyana 46 363,442 16% Colombia 45 22,624,568 19% Jordan 45 4,498,748 18% Azerbaijan 42 4,242,727 17% Panama 42 1,781,542 15% Mexico 41 52,704,960 17% Malaysia 41 13,107,681 13% South Korea 41 21,157,612 12% New Caledonia 40 115,218 19% Ecuador 40 6,890,876 10% Kazakhstan 39 7,303,180 14% Suriname 38 222,377 8% Australia 38 9,631,807 10% Belize 38 147,080 10% Albania 37 1,052,108 16% Russia 35 50,383,638 14% Oman 35 1,728,618 6% North Macedonia 34 713,114 13% Samoa 32 62,161 4.7% Moldova 31 834,527 13% Grenada 31 35,072 13% Peru 31 9,954,429 12% Saint Lucia 30 54,361 13% Sri Lanka 29 6,431,100 7.3% India 29 391,340,491 6% New Zealand 29 1,404,343 11% Brunei 28 121,241 4.3% Tonga 27 28,667 – Bulgaria 27 1,896,574 12% Bolivia 27 3,117,521 7% Trinidad and Tobago 27 375,924 11% Bahamas 25 97,992 10% Lebanon 25 1,693,164 9% Laos 24 1,708,981 9% Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 23 25,509 – Cape Verde 23 124,958 3% Timor-Leste 22 281,283 3% Indonesia 21 55,819,781 6% Equatorial Guinea 21 279,112 9% West Bank & Gaza 20 958,519 9% Thailand 19 13,533,717 5% Taiwan 19 4,603,639 1% Tunisia 19 2,206,980 6% São Tomé and Príncipe 18 37,716 5% Bosnia and Herzegovina 14 470,218 5% Venezuela 14 4,000,000 4% Nepal 13 3,730,344 4% Philippines 13 14,074,514 4% Botswana 12 284,676 5% Honduras 12 1,172,830 1% Paraguay 12 826,642 2% Belarus – – – Zimbabwe 11 1,575,539 4% Comoros 11 90,880 – Uzbekistan 11 3,541,442 4% Pakistan 10 2,166,0650 2% Jamaica 9.8 290,382 4% Armenia 8.8 260,813 2% Ukraine 8.8 3,899,890 3% Iran 7.9 6,530,124 3% Georgia 7.8 289,399 3% South Africa 7.7 4,535,222 3% Guatemala 6.9 1,146,477 1% Namibia 6.7 166,616 1% Myanmar 6.5* 3,500,000 – Libya 6.3 425,119 – Bangladesh 6.2 10,108,224 3% Guinea 6 770,688 2% Algeria – – – Eswatini 5.2 60,069 2% Rwanda 5.1 646,909 2% Senegal 5.1 823,610 2% Angola 4.9 1,558,201 2% Egypt 4.8 4,851,349 1% Vanuatu 4.7 14,026 – Vietnam 4.3 4,185,623 0.3% Togo – – – Tajikistan 4.3 397,694 0.2% Ghana 4.2 1,265,306 1% Mauritania 4 182,642 0.3% Solomon Islands 3.8 25,628 1% Ivory Coast 3.3 861,278 – Gabon 3.3 72,351 1% Republic of the Congo 3 163,742 – Kenya 2.9 1,550,389 1% Sierra Leone 2.9 225,380 0.2% Iraq 2.8 1,087,866 1% Djibouti 2.8 26,796 – Afghanistan 2.7 1,024,168 1% Kyrgyzstan 2.7 173,700 1.% Lesotho 2.7 56,322 1% Nicaragua – – – Uganda 2.4 1,079,943 – Malawi 2.3 428,407 0.2% Nigeria 2 3,938,945 1% Liberia 1.9 95,423 0.2% Ethiopia 1.9 2,090,997 – Gambia 1.9 43,557 1% Niger 1.8 423,335 0.3% Mozambique 1.7 508,184 1% Central African Republic 1.7 78,685 – Somalia 1.6 249,790 1% Sudan 1.6 677,957 0.3% Zambia 1.4 243,818 0.3% Guinea-Bissau 1.3 25,012 0.1% Yemen 1 297,405 <0.1% Mali 1 196,862 0.3% Syria 0.8 131,221 0.1% Madagascar 0.7 197,001 – Turkmenistan – – – Cameroon 0.6 163,921 0.1% Papua New Guinea 0.6 51,170 <0.1% South Sudan 0.5 55,915 <0.1% Benin 0.4 52,563 0.1% Burkina Faso 0.2 33,960 <0.1% Chad 0.2 24,459 <0.1% Congo 0.1 73,764 <0.1%

As of July 16th, 2021.

The higher the rate of vaccination, the harder it is for COVID-19 to spread. This gives countries a chance to loosen restrictions, let people get back to work and regular life, and fuel the economy. Additionally, the quicker vaccines are rolled out, the less time there is for variants to mutate.

Another factor is the overall strength of a country’s healthcare infrastructure. More advanced economies often have more ICU capacity, more efficient dissemination of public health information, and, simply, more hospital staff. These traits help better handle the pandemic, with reduced cases, less restrictions, and a speedy recovery.

Finally, the level of government support and fiscal stimulus injected into different economies has determined how swiftly they’ve recovered. Similar to the disparity in vaccine rollouts, there was a significant fiscal stimulus gap, especially during the heat of the pandemic.

Recovering to Normal?

Many experts and government leaders are now advocating for funneling more money into healthcare infrastructure and disease research preventatively. The increased funding now would help stop worldwide shut downs and needless loss of life in future.

Time will tell when we return to “normal” everywhere, however, normal will likely never be the same. Many impacts of the global pandemic will stay with us over the long term.

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Will the economy recover from Covid-19?

Why is the government optimistic that the economy will bounce back?

The huge contraction of the British economy from March of last year was based on a deliberate if belated decision to lock down in the face of the Covid crisis.

This is different from previous crises which ultimately resulted from falls in the rate of profit leading to bankruptcies, unemployment and so on.

However the contraction was also far larger than previous contractions—the biggest for 300 years the experts claim. The British economy was particularly badly hit because of its dependence on so-called service industries ever since Thatcher presided over the destruction of much of manufacturing in the 1980s.

Once Covid restrictions were eased or abolished, there was bound to be some recovery as people used restaurants, pubs and other service industries again.

The more optimistic forecasts are based on the assumption that companies and consumers have been forced to save during the lockdown. They expect that saving to be unleashed in a spending and investing bonanza.

The limited recovery we have seen so far is undoubtedly due to a rise in spending on services.

Optimism about the international environment has also increased as a result of the decision by US president Joe Biden to boost government spending by trillions of dollars.

The issue is not whether the economy will experience a recovery but rather how big and how sustained that recovery will be and how vulnerable it is to future crises.

What about the growth of debt as well as saving?

Some companies and individuals may have saved during the lockdown, but for many workers saving is impossible.

Moreover debt has grown enormously during lockdown, going from 300 percent of total annual world production to over 350 percent.

Much of this has been the growth of government debt as governments have sought to limit the long-term effects of lockdown. But companies and some workers have also had to go into debt.

The levels of debt are bound to break on recovery.

For example, the bond markets on which much borrowing depends want to be reassured—now the Covid crisis seems to be over or at least abating—that government debt is going to be reduced.

Otherwise, they may be unwilling to lend unless interest rates rise. Any rise in interest rates are likely to inhibit growth and could even trigger a financial crisis.

That is why orthodox economists are urging Rishi Sunak to plan to reduce government spending. And it’s why he’s cutting teachers pay, giving NHS staff a derisory pay rise and threatening to cut the triple lock on the state pension.

Cutting government spending will however reduce economic growth. On top of that, the number of companies that can only just cover their debt repayments has increased during lockdown. They will not be leading any investment recovery.

The limited spending power of people returning to work will be further cut by unemployment which threatens following the end of the furlough scheme.

Is a high inflation rate a real threat?

The Bank of England has also been pumping money into the economy since lockdown to keep interest rates low and try and prevent further damage to the economy.

This is on top of the easy money policy they have been pursuing since the great financial crisis of 2008. This increase in the supply of money has not so far fed into rampant inflation of prices in general.

Instead, it has encouraged banks to improve their solvency against further shocks and to fuel financial speculation which has seen stock markets and at least some property prices rise.

However, there are all sorts of supply problems that have developed during lockdown which have been pushing up prices which are now forecast to rise quite significantly.

It is unclear whether these inflationary pressures are going to continue to build.

The Bank of England has relaxed its inflation targets and is extremely cautious about raising interest rates because of the fragility of the economy.

If serious inflation does set in, interest rates will rise. This will have possibly disastrous consequences for many companies in debt and of course for many indebted workers and the real possibility of a financial crash.

What about the continued threat of Covid?

Covid has not gone away. The government has spent £37 billion on a track and trace system and now it’s finally working, they are urging some workers to ignore it.

The surge in infections among younger people who are at work is causing serious shortages of workers in key areas which is increasing the supply problems mentioned above.

On top of that, there are many countries now suffering a second, third and even fourth wave of Covid.

This is making the situation in the international economy more precarious and has led the OECD to cut its predictions of world economic growth.

Are there broader international threats to the British economy?

On top of the threat from Covid, there are growing trade tensions between the United States and China with sanctions being imposed.

There are also the problems posed by the hard Brexit negotiated by Johnson.

The British economy now faces many of the tariff barriers that the government was previously very happy to impose on countries outside the European Union.

The difficulties and the threat of a serious breakdown in relations with principal trading partners is clear in the absurd situation which has arisen with the North of Ireland.

The EU is prepared to accept a soft border between the North and the Irish Republic so long as there is a hard border down the Irish Sea.

And we shouldn’t ignore the growing disruption to the world economy from the climate crisis.

Floods in Belgium and Germany have caused billions worth of damage and the raging fires in the North West of the United States have also cost billions.

All the forecasts are for these economically disruptive and sometimes disastrous events to increase in number.

Is the world economy over the “Great Recession”?

The world economy was already faltering when the major economies locked down.

From a weak recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, the financial system was again showing signs of stress in late 2019 and growth in the EU was heading downwards.

This is all part of a pattern of weak growth and financial instability over the last fifty years.

Back in the late 1970s and 1980s this led to the abandonment of Keynesian state intervention for a much more market-orientated neoliberalism.

But financial instability, lacklustre growth and austerity and growing inequality have become central features of the new economic order bringing with it more political instability.

Now we see a change of thinking in the US away from that consensus and particularly with the perceived rising threat from state capitalist China.

But there is no reason to think that the underlying problems of the capitalist system have been in any way resolved.

Rather they seem to have become worse.

And those underlying problems are the generalised fall in rates of profit as a result of the displacement of workers from whom profit is derived through exploitation by ever more sophisticated technology.

The excess capital in the system which is depressing profit rates might have been eliminated in the financial crisis of 2008. But it came with an enormous economic cost, with unknown political consequences.

That is why central banks and governments have sought to prop up the system. But that means the world economy and with it, the British economy remains trapped in relatively low rates of profit and the repeated economic instability and crises that inevitably follow.

Only by replacing the system of capitalist exploitation and profit—with workers controlling and planning production—will we finally be rid of the suffering and destruction that are endemic to capitalism.