行政院前院長陳冲：面對主權貨幣CBDC 央行應正面接招
行政院前院長陳冲（本報系資料庫） facebook
行政院前院長、新世代金融基金會董事長陳冲今（5）日指出，面對世界研究中央銀行數位貨幣（CBDC）的風潮，我國中央銀行到了得正面接招的時候了。
陳冲指出，根據近日報導中的「央行指出」字眼了解，央行傾向由公私合作提供CBDC，央行更認為國際主要央行探索CBDC，不限於目前發展對支付系統與貨幣制度的威脅，還有爭奪金融霸權意味。換言之，我國既無意金融霸權，即無須發展CBDC，縱有必要，也可公私合作。
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陳冲認為，如果這是央行本意，身為國人也無話可說，但須指出CBDC是Legal tender，代表國家主權，在我國是否適合公私合作？ 央行自身對CBDC如有深入研究，是否更易於判斷合作對手的適當性？而且CBDC只是支付工具的一種，與其他支付業者的服務仍有區別，CBDC與一般紙幣、輔幣都可轉入電子錢包，是否有電子支付業者就可不要CBDC？
陳冲指出，今年2月27日至3月1日，經濟日報連三天刊出「迎接貨幣新紀元」的專題報導，距離他2006年2月提出的文章「貨幣由metal based到paper based，將來也會變成software based，恐須未雨綢繆」，恰恰好15周年，15年來歷經Smart phone誕生、App充斥、Blockchain轉型各個階段，他曾多次呼籲研議CBDC，今日自然樂見數位貨幣的浪潮狂湧未艾。
陳冲表示，15年來，CBDC已由「不值一哂」，到「各方矚目」，恐怕是央行必須正面接招的時候了。就連美國聯準會主席鮑爾也表示，「我不希望有一天醒來，發現美元已經不是世界儲備貨幣，其原因是我們剛剛錯過了一場技術變革」。台灣也許無意問鼎金融霸權，但鮑爾這一席話，還是可以參考。
陳冲強調，近日在市場上，許多加密貨幣價格劇烈起伏。加密貨幣不是幣，也許是commodity，也許是投資工具，但不是貨幣，更不是CBDC。至於穩定幣（stable coin），以Diem（前身為Libra）為代表，其與實體貨幣掛鉤，有電子商務為後盾，對現有體系比較構成威脅，德國財政部長（Olaf Scholz）在Libra改名為Diem後仍稱之為「披著羊皮的狼」，足見其威脅。其實在舉世央行矚目下，穩定幣勢必接受監管，野性將受馴服，出不了大亂子，充其量只是「披著狼皮的羊」。至數位主權貨幣（CBDC），一旦成功問世，在各國央行審慎規劃下，應該只是國民「錢包」中以「數位形態」出現的現鈔，是電子錢包中支付工具的一項，會大量減少輔幣（零錢）、現鈔的使用，如此而已。
陳冲認為，以數位方式發行主權貨幣，當然不是簡單的事，其中有技術面的考慮，還有政策面、金融面的考量。CBDC如果發行，應不會全面發行，一方面各國央行總會避免劇烈衝擊金融體系，一方面要讓金融機構放心，最重要的是央行也不願失去中介機構的緩衝。陳沖建議先從最底層的小額交易進行試驗，就是此一意旨。
USDT/USD: Speculative Advantages of Chasing the Stable Coin
Tether, as the premier stable coin, provides an intriguing speculative landscape for experienced traders. Having gotten its legal questions out of the way which were shadowing Tether for a while, via its settlement with New York State, USDT/USD can be looked at with short-term and long-term perspectives with relative comfort.
The 1.0000 mark remains the ultimate trading barometer for USDT/USD, but the digital currency seldom navigates this value only. Instead, it trades slightly above or below the price depending on prevailing sentiment and its utilitarian ability in the cryptocurrency world as a basis for transactions. In early trading today, USDT/USD traversed slightly lower from its current short-term price range and touched the 1.0005 mark and promptly moved higher.
Traders need to understand that the volume within USDT/USD is not huge and patience is required to have values move in the direction desired. Speculating on USDT/USD also needs the ability to understand the trading parameters of your chosen broker. If you are taking a position in USDT/USD it may not be possible to hit your target in one day, even if it is incremental, which means you may have to pay a carrying charge to hold a position overnight.
Therefore, looking for small moves within USDT/USD is the best option and the use of limit orders is vital to get in and out of trades. Short-term traders who know how to use their risk management tools have an advantage when trading Tether.
From a technical viewpoint, and taking into consideration the overall strong nature of the cryptocurrency market, USDT/USD continues to look like a potential buying opportunity when it approaches the 1.0000 mark. In fact, speculators who are able to use limit orders and buy if the 1.0005 support level is touched in the short term may find this trade worthwhile.
Now that the storm clouds have lifted from Tether, traders in the near term can be more comfortable and focus on value instead of legal questions for USDT/USD. Short term, USDT/USD looks like an opportunity for speculators who are alert, can tactically implement their positions patiently and target support junctures as a way to buy Tether.
Tether Short-Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 1.0012
Current Support: 1.0005
High Target: 1.0014
Low Target: 1.0001
USDT/USD: Tether’s Stable Coin Ability Becoming Speculative?
USDT/USD is a stable coin which serves as a foundation theoretically within the cryptocurrency marketplace. The value of Tether is constantly near 1.0000, based on the principle that the digital currency is backed by USD as each Tether token is generated via a correlated accounting with Bitcoin. However, this correlation has been questioned before, and it is not only traders who are sometimes skeptical about the value of USDT/USD.
The New York State Attorney General’s office is investigating the accounting of Tether. While technical traders can certainly speculate on USDT/USD and look at its incremental ability to trade slightly above and below the 1.0000 juncture, they should keep the notion in mind that a ruling which is expected to be announced in the near future will likely have an effect on value.
This means that the so-called stable coin, which USDT/USD is deemed, may face the potential for some rather speculative volatility in the near future. There are no guarantees; if no news is generated via the New York State Attorney General’s office, traders should expect a rather tranquil mode within the USDT/USD, which is standard and makes Tether a rather boring speculative asset.
Tether’s incremental movements are small and leverage needs to be calculated carefully to produce a trade which can exhibit meaningful profits and losses. The risk of transaction costs losses while trading USDT/USD is known; if the change of value within the token is not enough to offset the fees for speculating on the asset.
However, USDT/USD technical traders who actually do participate within the speculative asset should have an eye and ear on developing news which could certainly affect the price of Tether in a manner to which it is unaccustomed. Again, there are no certainties, but if a speculator has the ability to sell USDT/USD based on the perception that there will be negative news, having a working order that has sufficient risk management ready may be a speculative wager worth pursuing.
On the other hand, if a trader believes that the New York State Attorney General will take no action, then buying USDT/USD on lower support levels is the logical choice. Tether, which acts as a stable coin within the cryptocurrency marketplace, may find itself within a short-term speculative storm suddenly and traders may have an opportunity to take advantage of its quiet trading range if they are prepared.
Tether Short-Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 1.0005
Current Support: 0.9996
High Target: 1.0012
Low Target: 0.9990